On the global stability of an age‐structured tuberculosis transmission model with relapse

AbstractThe role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

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Global stability analysis with a discretization approach for an age-structured multigroup SIR epidemic model

Nonlinear Analysis Real World Applications ◽

10.1016/j.nonrwa.2011.03.011 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 2640-2655 ◽

Cited By ~ 46

Author(s):

Toshikazu Kuniya

Keyword(s):

Stability Analysis ◽

Global Stability ◽

Epidemic Model ◽

Sir Epidemic Model ◽

Global Stability Analysis ◽

Sir Epidemic ◽

Age Structured

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Mathematical Models for Assessing Vaccination Scenarios in Several Provinces in Indonesia

10.1101/2020.12.21.20248241 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

N. Nuraini ◽

K. Khairudin ◽

P. Hadisoemarto ◽

H. Susanto ◽

A. Hasan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Mathematical Models ◽

Age Groups ◽

Transmission Model ◽

West Java ◽

Dynamic Transmission Model ◽

Simulation Results ◽

Age Structured

AbstractTo mitigate more casualties from the COVID-19 outbreak, this study assessed optimal vaccination scenarios, considering some existing healthcare conditions and some assumptions, by developing SIQRD (Susceptible-Infected-Quarantine-Recovery-Death) models for Jakarta, West Java, and Banten, in Indonesia. The models included an age-structured dynamic transmission model that naturally could give different treatments among age groups of population. The simulation results show that the timing and period’s length of the vaccination should be well planned and prioritizing particular age groups will give significant impact on the total number of casualties.

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Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

10.21203/rs.3.rs-130264/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ganna Rozhnova ◽

Christiaan van Dorp ◽

Patricia Bruijning-Verhagen ◽

Martin Bootsma ◽

Janneke van de Wijgert ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Reproduction Number ◽

Additional Benefit ◽

Transmission Model ◽

Time Points ◽

School Based ◽

Admission Data ◽

Age Structured ◽

The Impact ◽

Pandemic Wave

Abstract The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We used an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (Re) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and Re is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced Re below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

Download Full-text