The Fourth Royal Society Technology Lecture - Petrol and pollution
During the twenty-five or so years I studied the physiology of the gametes at Cambridge, I was often impressed, and sometimes depressed, by the complexity of the problems posed by the phenomena I could see but seldom understand. The subject of this evening’s lecture is also extremely complex. But the comparative paucity of my knowledge of petrol and pollution, though a dangerous thing, absolves me from that plethora of cautionary or precautionary adverbs and parenthetical qualifications which are so dear to the heart of the specialist. When, however, the Executive Secretary told me there would be a discussion period at the end, I felt it desirable and, indeed, essential to have the help of a specialist to deal with any difficult questions─or easy ones for that matter─ you may in due course wish to pose. Dr Alun Thomas is, therefore, here to help me and, fortified by his presence, I propose to start with some parochial though somewhat disturbing statistics. Table 1. Vehicles and cars in the U. K., millions year vehicles cars 1970 16 12.5 1975 20.5 16.5 1985 27.5 23 Note: the total number of motor vehicles in the U. S. A. in 1968 was about 100 million. There are about sixteen million vehicles in the United Kingdom this year, of which some twelve and a half million are cars, with over a million in London (table 1). They will use more than 25 x 10 9 litres of petrol. By 1975 there will be twenty and a half million vehicles with sixteen and a half million cars. By 1985 the number of cars will rise to twenty-three million, about double the present number. Apart from the noise and congestion for which they are and will be increasingly responsible, what do cars produce in the way of harmful substances? How harmful are these now ? How harmful will they become ? How much of them is produced? Is the situation in London similar to that in Los Angeles, New York and Tokyo? Does the public prefer acceleration to clean air? Can it have both? The purpose of this lecture is to put before you the facts when they are known─ and this is by no means always the case─so that dispassionate answers to the questions I have just raised, and allied ones, can be given.