Economic success will elude Macri in Argentina

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
Economic Success ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cyclical Pattern ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

Significance The 2018 currency crisis left the economy in one of the deepest downturns of the last decade, repeating the cyclical pattern in place since 2011 of one year of growth followed by one year of downturn. Lower real incomes and rising interest rates discouraged private consumption and investment, hitting the performance of industries including manufacturing, construction and services. Impacts A larger soya harvest will not be enough to prompt significant economic rebound. Lack of confidence in the peso will keep interest rates high. With exports accounting for 20% of GDP, the impact of depreciation will not be significant.

Volatility integration of gold and crude oil prices with the interest rates in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

Macroeconomic shocks, fragility and home financing in Malaysia: can rental index be the answer?

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosylin Mohd Yusof ◽  
Farrell Hazsan Usman ◽  
Akhmad Affandi Mahfudz ◽  
Ahmad Suki Arif
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Rental Rate ◽  
Conventional Banks ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Conventional And Islamic Banks

Purpose This study aims to investigate the interactions among macroeconomic variable shocks, banking fragility and home financing provided by conventional and Islamic banks in Malaysia. Identifying the causes of financial instability and the effects of macroeconomic shocks can help to foil the onset of future financial turbulence. Design/methodology/approach The autoregressive distributed lag bound-testing cointegration approach, impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decomposition are used in this study to unravel the long-run and short-run dynamics among the selected macroeconomic variables and amount of home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, the study uses Granger causality tests to investigate the short-run causalities among the selected variables to further understand the impact of one macroeconomic shock to Islamic and conventional home financing. Findings This study provides evidence that macroeconomic shocks have different long-run and short-run effects on amount of home financing offered by conventional and Islamic banks. Both in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks is more linked to real sector economy and thus is more stable as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. The Granger causality test reveals that only gross domestic product (GDP), Kuala Lumpur Syariah Index (KLSI)/Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and house price index (HPI) are found to have a statistically significant causal relationship with home financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. Unlike the case of Islamic banks, conventional home financing is found to have a unidirectional causality with interest rates. Research limitations/implications This study has focused on analyzing the macroeconomic shocks on home financing. However, this study does not assess the impact of financial deregulation and enhanced information technology on amount of financing offered by both conventional and Islamic banks. In addition, it is not within the ambit of this present study to examine the effects of agency costs and information asymmetry. Practical implications The analysis of cointegration and IRFs exhibits that in the long run and short run, home financing provided by Islamic banks are more linked to real sector economy like GDP and House Prices (HPI) and therefore more resilient to economic vulnerabilities as compared to home financing provided by conventional banks. However, in the long run, both conventional and Islamic banks are more susceptible to fluctuations in interest rates. The results of the study suggest that monetary policy ramifications to improve banking fragility should focus on stabilizing interest rates or finding an alternative that is free from interest. Social implications Because interest plays a significant role in pricing of home loans, the potential of an alternative such as rental rate is therefore timely and worth the effort to investigate further. Therefore, Islamic banks can explore the possibility of pricing home financing based on rental rate as proposed in this study. Originality/value This paper examines the unresolved issues in Islamic home financing where Islamic banks still benchmark their products especially home financing, to interest rates in dual banking system such as in the case of Malaysia. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, studies conducted in this area are meager and therefore is imperative to be examined.

Australian PM challenge will hinder policy agenda

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Developed Economies ◽  
Housing Bubbles ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

Significance Although a victory in the short term for Abbott, the narrow margin will only intensify doubts about his long-term prospects as party leader and as prime minister. The challenge continues a trend of instability across Australia's main political parties. The country is poised to enter a record 25th year of uninterrupted economic growth, yet has changed prime minister four times since 2007. Impacts Australia will remain one of the most robust developed economies throughout 2015, with growth rates far above those of the EU. The Reserve Bank's decision to cut interest rates indicates that there are worries of the impact of the China-induced mining slowdown. Concerns in state capitals about housing bubbles will grow and may be an issue in the next federal election.

Fed move boosts tight Latin American monetary policy

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
Government Bond Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
First Time

Subject The impact of US monetary policy tightening. Significance Following the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) historic decision to raise rates for the first time since 2006, the start of the Fed's monetary tightening cycle is accentuating the hawkish stance of Latin America's main central banks. This comes amid a dramatic sell-off in commodity markets, persistent concerns about China's economy and a severe deterioration in economic conditions across the region. Impacts EM asset prices have remained relatively resilient to the rise in US interest rates, in stark contrast to the 'taper tantrum' in 2013. Hitherto-resilient regional local currency government bond markets will face foreign capital outflows due to falling commodity prices. The Brazilian real is 2015's worst-performing major EM currency, but due largely to political and economic difficulties at home.

Business confidence mars Chile investment outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commodity Export ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Export Industries ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of falling investment. Significance Since 2013, investment has been declining in many Latin American countries in a trend related to lower commodity prices. However, in Chile, the contraction has been particularly marked and is also attributed to a loss of business confidence caused by domestic political factors. Impacts An expected increase in international interest rates will play against higher private investment next year. Increased competitiveness as a result of peso depreciation may boost investment in some non-commodity export industries. Local businesses, accustomed to Chile's economic and political stability, will find it difficult to adjust to increased uncertainty.

Swiss economic growth is set to accelerate this year

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook for Switzerland. Significance Switzerland’s GDP growth disappointed in the first quarter of 2017: it increased by 0.3% on a quarterly and 1.1% on a yearly basis, held back by weak private consumption growth. However, exports rebounded after the long blight of the 2015 franc appreciation shock. Impacts Private consumption should improve after stagnating in 2015-16, benefiting from the labour market recovery. Low interest rates are likely to boost private investment. Chemicals, pharmaceuticals, engineering, electrics and the watch-making industry are likely to benefit from the expected revival in exports. Inflation is likely to average around 0.4% in 2017 and 2018.

Fed policy move will mean lower rates for even longer

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Impact

Significance The Fed reduced interest rates to 0-0.25% and almost doubled the size of its balance sheet to offset some of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the US economy but clear signs of economic activity rebounding are now prompting the Fed to look further out. Impacts The Fed will reassure markets that there will be no rate increases under virtually any circumstances in the next few years. Eventually the Fed will consider reducing the size of its balance sheet; this will require adroit management to avoid worrying investors. There appears to be little support at the Fed for negative rates; adopting yield-curve control remains possible if the recovery disappoints.

Endorsement and visual complexity in food advertising on Instagram

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 659-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sony Kusumasondjaja ◽  
Fandy Tjiptono
Keyword(s):  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Visual Complexity ◽  
Purchase Intentions ◽  
Food Advertising ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Complexity Result ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the differences in consumer pleasure, arousal and purchase intention when consumers encounter food advertising on Instagram using different endorsers and visual complexity levels. Design/methodology/approach An experimental design was conducted involving 180 undergraduate students from several universities in Surabaya, Indonesia. The participants had actively used Instagram for at least one year. Findings Food ads endorsed by a celebrity generate more pleasure and arousal than those endorsed by food experts. Food advertising using high levels of visual complexity cues generates more pleasure and arousal than less complex advertising. However, less complex food ads using food experts create greater pleasure than those endorsed by celebrities. Consumer pleasure and arousal were significant mediators of the impact of endorser type and visual complexity on consumer purchase intentions. Practical implications As celebrities and higher levels of visual complexity result in more favorable responses to Instagram ads, food marketers need to consider increasing visual complexity when using celebrities in advertising by adding more objects, using more colors, objects, or textures and incorporating asymmetric elements in the advertisements. Originality/value This is one of the few studies comparing the effectiveness of celebrity and expert endorsers in Instagram advertising. Also, this research extends the existing knowledge about visual complexity in the context of social media advertising.

Discussion of commercial lender judgment and fair-value recognition: an investigation into the impact of future accounting standards

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (4) ◽  
pp. 481-486
Author(s):  
Nen-Chen (Richard) Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Research Design ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Accounting Standards ◽  
Fair Value ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Lenders ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to discuss the study by Warne (2020), which investigates whether disclosure or recognition of fair value information for nonfinancial assets influences commercial lenders’ judgment on interest rates and the dollar amounts of business loans.Design/methodology/approachProvides a discussion of research design and general issues related to behavioral/experimental studies.FindingsIdentifies issues that should be carefully thought out and properly addressed by behavioral researchers in order to improve the robustness of the empirical evidence.Originality/valueThis discussion highlights issues that should be carefully thought out and properly addressed by behavioral researchers in order to improve the robustness of the empirical evidence.

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