Eye Movements Predict Large-Scale Voting Decisions

2021 ◽  
pp. 095679762199114
Author(s):  
Jason C. Coronel ◽  
Olivia M. Bullock ◽  
Hillary C. Shulman ◽  
Matthew D. Sweitzer ◽  
Robert M. Bond ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Eye Movements ◽  
Language Comprehension ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Ballot Measures ◽  
Language Difficulty ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Voting Decisions ◽  
Registered Voters

More than 100 countries allow people to vote directly on policies in direct democracy elections (e.g., 2016 Brexit referendum). Politicians are often responsible for writing ballot language, and voters frequently encounter ballot measures that are difficult to understand. We examined whether eye movements from a small group of individuals can predict the consequences of ballot language on large-scale voting decisions. Across two preregistered studies (Study 1: N = 120 registered voters, Study 2: N = 120 registered voters), we monitored laboratory participants’ eye movements as they read real ballot measures. We found that eye-movement responses associated with difficulties in language comprehension predicted aggregate voting decisions to abstain from voting and vote against ballot measures in U.S. elections (total number of votes cast = 137,661,232). Eye movements predicted voting decisions beyond what was accounted for by widely used measures of language difficulty. This finding demonstrates a new way of linking eye movements to out-of-sample aggregate-level behaviors.

FAST METHODS FOR LARGE-SCALE NON-ELLIPTICAL PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION

2014 ◽  
Vol 09 (02) ◽  
pp. 1440001 ◽  
Author(s):  
MARC S. PAOLELLA
Keyword(s):  
Portfolio Optimization ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Short Selling ◽  
Sharpe Ratio ◽  
Mixture Of Normals ◽  
Optimization Via Simulation ◽  
Fast Methods ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Weighted Portfolio

Simple, fast methods for modeling the portfolio distribution corresponding to a non-elliptical, leptokurtic, asymmetric, and conditionally heteroskedastic set of asset returns are entertained. Portfolio optimization via simulation is demonstrated, and its benefits are discussed. An augmented mixture of normals model is shown to be superior to both standard (no short selling) Markowitz and the equally weighted portfolio in terms of out of sample returns and Sharpe ratio performance.

scholarly journals Using Eye Movements to Assess Language Comprehension in Toddlers Born Preterm and Full Term

2017 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 124-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth C. Loi ◽  
Virginia A. Marchman ◽  
Anne Fernald ◽  
Heidi M. Feldman
Keyword(s):  
Eye Movements ◽  
Language Comprehension ◽  
Full Term

scholarly journals Large-Scale Functional Brain Networks of Maladaptive Childhood Aggression Identified by Connectome-Based Predictive Modeling

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karim Ibrahim ◽  
Stephanie Noble ◽  
George He ◽  
Cheryl Lacadie ◽  
Michael Crowley ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Functional Organization ◽  
Emotion Processing ◽  
Childhood Aggression ◽  
Child Aggression ◽  
Targeted Treatments ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Functional Brain Networks ◽  
Large Scale Networks

Abstract Disruptions in frontoparietal networks supporting emotion regulation have been long implicated in maladaptive childhood aggression. However, the association of connectivity between large-scale functional networks in the human connectome with aggressive behavior has not been tested. By using a data-driven, machine learning approach, we show that the functional organization of the connectome during emotion processing predicts severity of aggression in children (n=129). Connectivity predictive of aggression was identified within and between large-scale networks implicated in cognitive control (frontoparietal), social functioning (default mode), and emotion processing (subcortical). Out-of-sample replication and generalization of findings predicting aggression from the functional connectome was conducted in an independent sample of children from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development study (n=1,791; n=1,701). These results define novel connectivity-based networks of child aggression that can serve as biomarkers to inform targeted treatments for aggression.

scholarly journals Predicting the Replicability of Social Science Lab Experiments

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Altmejd ◽  
Anna Dreber ◽  
Eskil Forsell ◽  
Teck Hua Ho ◽  
Juergen Huber ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Effect Size ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Relative Effect ◽  
New Findings ◽  
Psychology And Economics ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Sample Test ◽  
Successful Replication ◽  
Basic Features ◽  
Main Effects

We measure how accurately replication of experimental results can be predicted by a black-box statistical model. With data from four large- scale replication projects in experimental psychology and economics, and techniques from machine learning, we train a predictive model and study which variables drive predictable replication.The model predicts binary replication with a cross validated accuracy rate of 70% (AUC of 0.79) and relative effect size with a Spearman ρ of 0.38. The accuracy level is similar to the market-aggregated beliefs of peer scientists (Camerer et al., 2016; Dreber et al., 2015). The predictive power is validated in a pre-registered out of sample test of the outcome of Camerer et al. (2018b), where 71% (AUC of 0.73) of replications are predicted correctly and effect size correlations amount to ρ = 0.25.Basic features such as the sample and effect sizes in original papers, and whether reported effects are single-variable main effects or two- variable interactions, are predictive of successful replication. The models presented in this paper are simple tools to produce cheap, prognostic replicability metrics. These models could be useful in institutionalizing the process of evaluation of new findings and guiding resources to those direct replications that are likely to be most informative.

Spoken language comprehension: insights from eye movements

2007 ◽  
pp. 308-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael K. Tanenhaus
Keyword(s):  
Eye Movements ◽  
Language Processing ◽  
Language Comprehension ◽  
Language Production ◽  
World Literature ◽  
Spoken Language ◽  
Response Measure ◽  
Visual World ◽  
Spoken Language Processing ◽  
Spoken Language Comprehension

Recently, eye movements have become a widely used response measure for studying spoken language processing in both adults and children, in situations where participants comprehend and generate utterances about a circumscribed “Visual World” while fixation is monitored, typically using a free-view eye-tracker. Psycholinguists now use the Visual World eye-movement method to study both language production and language comprehension, in studies that run the gamut of current topics in language processing. Eye movements are a response measure of choice for addressing many classic questions about spoken language processing in psycholinguistics. This article reviews the burgeoning Visual World literature on language comprehension, highlighting some of the seminal studies and examining how the Visual World approach has contributed new insights to our understanding of spoken word recognition, parsing, reference resolution, and interactive conversation. It considers some of the methodological issues that come to the fore when psycholinguists use eye movements to examine spoken language comprehension.

Emergent constraints on the large scale atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate: do they still work in CMIP6 and how much can they actually constrain the future?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-62
Author(s):  
Isla R. Simpson ◽  
Karen A. McKinnon ◽  
Frances V. Davenport ◽  
Martin Tingley ◽  
Flavio Lehner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Stationary Wave ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractAn ‘emergent constraint’ (EC) is a statistical relationship, across a model ensemble, between a measurable aspect of the present day climate (the predictor) and an aspect of future projected climate change (the predictand). If such a relationship is robust and understood, it may provide constrained projections for the real world. Here, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models are used to revisit several ECs that were proposed in prior model intercomparisons with two aims: (1) to assess whether these ECs survive the partial out-of-sample test of CMIP6 and (2) to more rigorously quantify the constrained projected change than previous studies. To achieve the latter, methods are proposed whereby uncertainties can be appropriately accounted for, including the influence of internal variability, uncertainty on the linear relationship, and the uncertainty associated with model structural differences, aside from those described by the EC. Both least squares regression and a Bayesian Hierarchical Model are used. Three ECs are assessed: (a) the relationship between Southern Hemisphere jet latitude and projected jet shift, which is found to be a robust and quantitatively useful constraint on future projections; (b) the relationship between stationary wave amplitude in the Pacific-North American sector and meridional wind changes over North America (with extensions to hydroclimate), which is found to be robust but improvements in the predictor in CMIP6 result in it no longer substantially constrains projected change in either circulation or hydroclimate; and (c) the relationship between ENSO teleconnections to California and California precipitation change, which does not appear to be robust when using historical ENSO teleconnections as the predictor.

Direct Democracy and LGBT Politics

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel C. Lewis
Keyword(s):  
Direct Democracy ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Lgbt Rights ◽  
Direct Role ◽  
Same Sex Marriage ◽  
The Public ◽  
Ballot Measures ◽  
Lgbt Politics ◽  
Lgbt Community

While many landmark policies affecting LGBT rights have been determined by legislatures and courts, voters have also often played a more direct role in LGBT politics through direct democracy institutions, such as the initiative and referendum. For example, in 2008 California voters approved Proposition 8, barring same-sex marriage in the state and setting the stage for a key federal court decision in Hollingsworth v. Perry (2013). This followed on the heels of 31 ballot measures to ban same-sex marriage in the previous decade. Direct democracy has also been employed frequently to consider a range of other important issues relevant to the LGBT community, including bans on same-sex couple adoptions, nondiscrimination policies, education policies, and employment benefits. Further, as issues addressing transgender right have emerged on the political landscape, local referendums have addressed public accommodation discrimination, including so-called “bathroom bills,” like the high-profile Houston referendum in 2014. Most of these prominent direct democracy contests have resulted in negative outcomes for the LGBT community, spurring concerns about subjecting the rights of marginalized groups to a popular vote. However, some ballot measures, such as Washington’s 2012 vote to legalize same-sex marriage, have expanded or protected LGBT rights. Yet the effects of direct democracy institutions extend beyond the direct policy outcomes of elections and have been shown to shape the decision-making of elected officials as well. Still, studies of both the direct and indirect effects of direct democracy on LGBT rights reveal mixed results that are contingent upon public attitudes and how the issues are framed. When the public is supportive of LGBT rights and views them through a civil right frame, direct democracy has been used to expand and protect these rights. However, when the public views the LGBT community more negatively and views the issues through a morality or safety lens, LGBT rights are put at risk by direct democracy. As such, direct democracy institutions function as a double-edged sword for the LGBT community, simultaneously offering an opportunity to elevate LGBT rights issues onto the public agenda with a civil rights frame and posing a threat to the community when these issues are viewed in a more hostile manner.

scholarly journals Inversion of a large-scale circuit model reveals a cortical hierarchy in the dynamic resting human brain

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. eaat7854 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Wang ◽  
Ru Kong ◽  
Xiaolu Kong ◽  
Raphaël Liégeois ◽  
Csaba Orban ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Circuit Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Functional Magnetic Resonance ◽  
Cortical Hierarchy ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
External Stimuli ◽  
Recurrent Connections

We considered a large-scale dynamical circuit model of human cerebral cortex with region-specific microscale properties. The model was inverted using a stochastic optimization approach, yielding markedly better fit to new, out-of-sample resting functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. Without assuming the existence of a hierarchy, the estimated model parameters revealed a large-scale cortical gradient. At one end, sensorimotor regions had strong recurrent connections and excitatory subcortical inputs, consistent with localized processing of external stimuli. At the opposing end, default network regions had weak recurrent connections and excitatory subcortical inputs, consistent with their role in internal thought. Furthermore, recurrent connection strength and subcortical inputs provided complementary information for differentiating the levels of the hierarchy, with only the former showing strong associations with other macroscale and microscale proxies of cortical hierarchies (meta-analysis of cognitive functions, principal resting fMRI gradient, myelin, and laminar-specific neuronal density). Overall, this study provides microscale insights into a macroscale cortical hierarchy in the dynamic resting brain.

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