scholarly journals Priority and age specific vaccination algorithm for the pandemic diseases: a comprehensive parametric prediction model

2022 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Onder Tutsoy ◽  
Mahmud Yusuf Tanrikulu
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Inequality Constraints ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
Recursive Least Squares ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
The Future ◽  
Production And Distribution

Abstract Background There have been several destructive pandemic diseases in the human history. Since these pandemic diseases spread through human-to-human infection, a number of non-pharmacological policies has been enforced until an effective vaccine has been developed. In addition, even though a vaccine has been developed, due to the challenges in the production and distribution of the vaccine, the authorities have to optimize the vaccination policies based on the priorities. Considering all these facts, a comprehensive but simple parametric model enriched with the pharmacological and non-pharmacological policies has been proposed in this study to analyse and predict the future pandemic casualties. Method This paper develops a priority and age specific vaccination policy and modifies the non-pharmacological policies including the curfews, lockdowns, and restrictions. These policies are incorporated with the susceptible, suspicious, infected, hospitalized, intensive care, intubated, recovered, and death sub-models. The resulting model is parameterizable by the available data where a recursive least squares algorithm with the inequality constraints optimizes the unknown parameters. The inequality constraints ensure that the structural requirements are satisfied and the parameter weights are distributed proportionally. Results The results exhibit a distinctive third peak in the casualties occurring in 40 days and confirm that the intensive care, intubated, and death casualties converge to zero faster than the susceptible, suspicious, and infected casualties with the priority and age specific vaccination policy. The model also estimates that removing the curfews on the weekends and holidays cause more casualties than lifting the restrictions on the people with the chronic diseases and age over 65. Conclusion Sophisticated parametric models equipped with the pharmacological and non-pharmacological policies can predict the future pandemic casualties for various cases.

scholarly journals The UPTAKE study: implications for the future of COVID-19 vaccination trial recruitment in UK and beyond

Trials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonika Sethi ◽  
Aditi Kumar ◽  
Anandadeep Mandal ◽  
Mohammed Shaikh ◽  
Claire A. Hall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Small Towns ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Trial Recruitment ◽  
Trial Management ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The Future

Abstract Background Developing a safe and effective vaccine will be the principal way of controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. However, current COVID-19 vaccination trials are not adequately representing a diverse participant population in terms of age, ethnicity and comorbidities. Achieving the representative recruitment targets that are adequately powered to the study remains one of the greatest challenges in clinical trial management. To ensure accuracy and generalisability of the safety and efficacy conclusions generated by clinical trials, it is crucial to recruit patient cohorts as representative as possible of the future target population. Missing these targets can lead to reduced validity of the study results and can often slow down drug development leading to costly delays. Objective This study explores the key factors related to perceptions and participation in vaccination trials. Methods This study involved an anonymous cross-sectional online survey circulated across the UK. Statistical analysis was done in six phases. Multi-nominal logistic models examined demographic and geographic factors that may impact vaccine uptake. Results The survey had 4884 participants of which 9.44% were Black Asian Minority Ethnic (BAME). Overall, 2020 (41.4%) respondents were interested in participating in vaccine trials; 27.6% of the respondents were not interested and 31.1% were unsure. The most interested groups were male (OR = 1.29), graduates (OR = 1.28), the 40–49 and 50–59 age groups (OR = 1.88 and OR = 1.46 respectively) and those with no health issues (OR = 1.06). The least interested groups were BAME (OR = 0.43), those from villages and small towns (OR = 0.66 and 0.54 respectively) and those aged 70 and above (OR = 1.11). Conclusions In order to have a vaccination that is generalisable to the entire population, greater work needs to be done in engaging a diverse cohort of participants. Public health campaigns need to be targeted in improving trial recruitment rates for the elderly, BAME community and the less educated rural population.

scholarly journals Software Sensor to Enhance Online Parametric Identification for Nonlinear Closed-Loop Systems for Robotic Applications

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 3653
Author(s):  
Lilia Sidhom ◽  
Ines Chihi ◽  
Ernest Nlandu Kamavuako
Keyword(s):  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Closed Loop ◽  
Sliding Mode ◽  
Robot Manipulator ◽  
Parametric Identification ◽  
Recursive Least Squares ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Closed Loop Identification ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Robotic Applications

This paper proposes an online direct closed-loop identification method based on a new dynamic sliding mode technique for robotic applications. The estimated parameters are obtained by minimizing the prediction error with respect to the vector of unknown parameters. The estimation step requires knowledge of the actual input and output of the system, as well as the successive estimate of the output derivatives. Therefore, a special robust differentiator based on higher-order sliding modes with a dynamic gain is defined. A proof of convergence is given for the robust differentiator. The dynamic parameters are estimated using the recursive least squares algorithm by the solution of a system model that is obtained from sampled positions along the closed-loop trajectory. An experimental validation is given for a 2 Degrees Of Freedom (2-DOF) robot manipulator, where direct and cross-validations are carried out. A comparative analysis is detailed to evaluate the algorithm’s effectiveness and reliability. Its performance is demonstrated by a better-quality torque prediction compared to other differentiators recently proposed in the literature. The experimental results highlight that the differentiator design strongly influences the online parametric identification and, thus, the prediction of system input variables.

Making a Connection: Family Experiences With Bedside Rounds in the Intensive Care Unit

2018 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 18-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn E. Cody ◽  
Susan Sullivan-Bolyai ◽  
Patricia Reid-Ponte
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Health Care Providers ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Management Style ◽  
Family Management ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Bedside Rounds ◽  
The Family ◽  
The Future

Background The hospitalization of a family member in an intensive care unit can be stressful for the family. Family bedside rounds is a way for the care team to inform family members, answer questions, and involve them in care decisions. The experiences of family members with intensive care unit bedside rounds have been examined in few studies. Objectives To describe (1) the experiences of family members of patients in the intensive care unit who participated in family bedside rounds (ie, view of the illness, role in future management, and long-term consequences on individual and family functioning) and (2) the experiences of families who chose not to participate in family bedside rounds and their perspectives regarding its value, their illness view, and future involvement in care. Methods A qualitative descriptive study was done, undergirded by the Family Management Style Framework, examining families that participated and those that did not. Results Most families that participated (80%) found the process helpful. One overarching theme, Making a Connection: Comfort and Confidence, emerged from participating families. Two major factors influenced how that connection was made: consistency and preparing families for the future. Three types of consistency were identified: consistency in information being shared, in when rounds were being held, and in informing families of rounding delays. In terms of preparing families for the future, families appeared to feel comfortable with the situation when a connection was present. When any of the factors were missing, families described feelings of anger, frustration, and fear. Family members who did not participate described similar feelings and fear of the unknown because of not having participated. Conclusion What health care providers say to patients’ families matters. Families may need to be included in decision-making with honest, consistent, easy-to-understand information.

So Goes the Nation

2018 ◽  
pp. 285-293
Author(s):  
Bethany Moreton
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Collective Decision ◽  
Collective Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Of Wealth ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Black Freedom ◽  
Unfree Labor ◽  
Current Concern ◽  
The Future ◽  
Production And Distribution

This brief and synthetic epilogue argues that the South’s history lays bare the ways that antidemocratic governance has been used in this country to protect unfree labor arrangements and to blunt collective decision-making about the conditions of wealth production and distribution of wealth. That history helps sharpen our analysis of the current concern over the future of work. More than half a century ago, labor and black freedom advocates teamed up with analysts of the cybernetics revolution to ask “Are there other proper claims on goods and services besides a job?” The epilogue argues that the question is as pertinent now as when it was formulated, and that the South is where it will have to be answered.

virtual Reality simulation in Human Applied Kinetics and Ergo Physiology

2011 ◽  
pp. 1311-1316
Author(s):  
Bill Ag. Drougas
Keyword(s):  
Virtual Reality ◽  
Human Body ◽  
Virtual Reality Simulation ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Individual Scientist ◽  
The Future ◽  
Physical Laws ◽  
Excellent Tool ◽  
Modern Technologies ◽  
Human Kinetics

Virtual reality is today an excellent tool for a full simulated experience in a modern environment where any researcher or any individual scientist may work with vital experimental environments or use parameters that sometimes does not really exist. It is already a vital step for the future of science and for the modern experiment. Ergo physiology today has many applications for research. We can find new unknown parameters for the human body searching biokinetics and ergo physiology, and it is time to use modern technologies and applications. The vital issues discussed in this chapter may offer many applications for human kinetics and movement and may also discuss biokinetics research using the physical laws and parameters in various biokinetics and physiology fields.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document