scholarly journals Using a stochastic continuous-time Markov chain model to examine alternative timing and duration of the COVID-19 lockdown in Kuwait: what can be done now?

2022 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Al-Zoughool ◽  
Tamer Oraby ◽  
Harri Vainio ◽  
Janvier Gasana ◽  
Joseph Longenecker ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. Methods The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. Results The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations. Conclusions In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Al-Zoughool ◽  
Tamer Oraby ◽  
Harri Vainio ◽  
Janvier Gasana ◽  
Joseph Longnecker ◽  
...  

Abstract Background: Kuwait had its first COVID-19 in late February, and until October 6, 2020 it recorded 108,268 cases and 632 deaths. Despite implementing one of the strictest control measures-including a three-week complete lockdown, there was no sign of a declining epidemic curve. The objective of the current analyses is to determine, hypothetically, the optimal timing and duration of a full lockdown in Kuwait that would result in controlling new infections and lead to a substantial reduction in case hospitalizations. Methods: The analysis was conducted using a stochastic Continuous-Time Markov Chain (CTMC), eight state model that depicts the disease transmission and spread of SARS-CoV 2. Transmission of infection occurs between individuals through social contacts at home, in schools, at work, and during other communal activities. Results: The model shows that a lockdown 10 days before the epidemic peak for 90 days is optimal but a more realistic duration of 45 days can achieve about a 45% reduction in both new infections and case hospitalizations.Conclusions: In the view of the forthcoming waves of the COVID19 pandemic anticipated in Kuwait using a correctly-timed and sufficiently long lockdown represents a workable management strategy that encompasses the most stringent form of social distancing with the ability to significantly reduce transmissions and hospitalizations.


1999 ◽  
Vol 36 (3) ◽  
pp. 621-631 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Durrett ◽  
Semyon Kruglyak

We introduce a continuous-time Markov chain model for the evolution of microsatellites, simple sequence repeats in DNA. We prove the existence of a unique stationary distribution for our model, and fit the model to data from approximately 106 base pairs of DNA from fruit flies, mice, and humans. The slippage rates from the best fit for our model are consistent with experimental findings.


2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (9) ◽  
pp. 1671-1688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hrishikesh Chakraborty ◽  
Akhtar Hossain ◽  
Mahbub A.H.M. Latif

2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (28) ◽  
pp. 4570-4582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Laura Rubin ◽  
Wenyaw Chan ◽  
Jose-Miguel Yamal ◽  
Claudia Sue Robertson

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