scholarly journals A New Rapid Approach for Predicting Death in Coronavirus Patients: The Development and Validation of the COVID-19 Risk-Score in Fars Province (CRSF)

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehrdad Sharifi ◽  
Mohammad Hossein Khademian ◽  
Razieh Sadat Mousavi-Roknabadi ◽  
Vahid Ebrahimi ◽  
Robab Sadegh
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Fars Province ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Development And Validation ◽  
Underlying Diseases

Background:Patients who are identified to be at a higher risk of mortality from COVID-19 should receive better treatment and monitoring. This study aimed to propose a simple yet accurate risk assessment tool to help decision-making in the management of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: From Jul to Nov 2020, 5454 patients from Fars Province, Iran, diagnosed with COVID-19 were enrolled. A multiple logistic regression model was trained on one dataset (training set: n=4183) and its prediction performance was assessed on another dataset (testing set: n=1271). This model was utilized to develop the COVID-19 risk-score in Fars (CRSF). Results: Five final independent risk factors including gender (male: OR=1.37), age (60-80: OR=2.67 and >80: OR=3.91), SpO2 (≤85%: OR=7.02), underlying diseases (yes: OR=1.25), and pulse rate (<60: OR=2.01 and >120: OR=1.60) were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. The CRSF formula was obtained using the estimated regression coefficient values of the aforementioned factors. The point values for the risk factors varied from 2 to 19 and the total CRSF varied from 0 to 45. The ROC analysis showed that the CRSF values of ≥15 (high-risk patients) had a specificity of 73.5%, sensitivity of 76.5%, positive predictive value of 23.2%, and negative predictive value (NPV) of 96.8% for the prediction of death (AUC=0.824, P<0.0001). Conclusion:This simple CRSF system, which has a high NPV,can be useful for predicting the risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients. It can also be used as a disease severity indicator to determine triage level for hospitalization.

scholarly journals Predictive risk score model for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome mortality based on qSOFA and SIRS scoring system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Wang ◽  
Zhiqiang Zou ◽  
Kun Ding ◽  
Chunguo Hou ◽  
Song Qin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Qsofa Score ◽  
Severe Fever

Abstract Background: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a severe systemic virus infectious disease usually having multi-organ dysfunction which resembles sepsis. Methods: Data of 321 patients with laboratory-confirmed SFTS from May 2013 to July 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Demographic and clinical characteristics, calculated quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria for survivors and nonsurvivors were compared. Independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality were obtained using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Risk score models containing different risk factors for mortality in stratified patients were established whose predictive values were evaluated using the area under ROC curve (AUC). Results: Of 321 patients, 87 died (27.1%). Age ( p <0.001) and percentage numbers of patients with qSOFA≥2 and SIRS≥2 ( p <0.0001) were profoundly greater in nonsurvivors than in survivors. Age, qSOFA, SIRS score and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were independent risk factors for mortality for all patients. And qSOFA score was the only common risk factor in all patients, those age≥60 years and those enrolled in the intensive care unit (ICU). A risk score model containing all these risk factors (Model1) has high predictive value for in-hospital mortality in these three groups with AUCs (95% CI): 0.919 (0.883-0.946), 0.929 (0.862-0.944) and 0.815 (0.710-0.894), respectively. A model only including age and qSOFA also has high predictive value for mortality in these groups with AUCs (95% CI): 0.872 (0.830-0.906), 0.885(0.801-0.900) and 0.865 (0.767-0.932), respectively. Conclusions: Risk models containing qSOFA have high predictive validity for SFTS mortality.

scholarly journals Predictive risk score model for severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome mortality based on qSOFA and SIRS scoring system

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li Wang ◽  
Zhiqiang Zou ◽  
Kun Ding ◽  
Chunguo Hou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Multivariable Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Score Model ◽  
Qsofa Score ◽  
Severe Fever

Abstract Background: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a severe systemic virus infectious disease usually having multi-organ dysfunction which resembles sepsis.Methods: Data of 321 patients with laboratory-confirmed SFTS from May 2013 to July 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. Demographic and clinical characteristics, calculated quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria for survivors and nonsurvivors were compared. Independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality were obtained using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Risk score models containing different risk factors for mortality in stratified patients were established whose predictive values were evaluated using the area under ROC curve (AUC).Results: Of 321 patients, 87 died (27.1%). Age (p<0.001) and percentage numbers of patients with qSOFA≥2 and SIRS≥2 (p<0.0001) were profoundly greater in nonsurvivors than in survivors. Age, qSOFA, SIRS score and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) were independent risk factors for mortality for all patients. And qSOFA score was the only common risk factor in all patients, those age≥60 years and those enrolled in the intensive care unit (ICU). A risk score model containing all these risk factors (Model1) has high predictive value for in-hospital mortality in these three groups with AUCs (95% CI): 0.919 (0.883-0.946), 0.929 (0.862-0.944) and 0.815 (0.710-0.894), respectively. A model only including age and qSOFA also has high predictive value for mortality in these groups with AUCs (95% CI): 0.872 (0.830-0.906), 0.885(0.801-0.900) and 0.865 (0.767-0.932), respectively.Conclusions: Risk models containing qSOFA have high predictive validity for SFTS mortality.

scholarly journals A New Preoperative Risk Score for Predicting Postoperative Complications in Elderly Patients Undergoing Hepatectomy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Koichi Tomita ◽  
Itsuki Koganezawa ◽  
Masashi Nakagawa ◽  
Shigeto Ochiai ◽  
Takahiro Gunji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Skeletal Muscle ◽  
Postoperative Complications ◽  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Risk Score ◽  
Surgical Procedure ◽  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Preoperative Risk ◽  
Preoperative Serum ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background Postoperative complications are not rare in the elderly population after hepatectomy. However, predicting postoperative risk in elderly patients undergoing hepatectomy is not easy. We aimed to develop a new preoperative evaluation method to predict postoperative complications in patients above 65 years of age using biological impedance analysis (BIA). Methods Clinical data of 59 consecutive patients (aged 65 years or older) who underwent hepatectomy at our institution between 2017 and 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. Risk factors for postoperative complications (Clavien-Dindo ≥ III) were evaluated using multivariate regression analysis. Additionally, a new preoperative risk score was developed for predicting postoperative complications. Results Fifteen patients (25.4%) had postoperative complications, with biliary fistula being the most common complication. Abnormal skeletal muscle mass index from BIA and type of surgical procedure were found to be independent risk factors in the multivariate analysis. These two variables and preoperative serum albumin levels were used for developing the risk score. The postoperative complication rate was 0.0% with a risk score of ≤ 1 and 57.1% with a risk score of ≥ 4. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the risk score was 0.810 (p = 0.001), which was better than that of other known surgical risk indexes. Conclusion Decreased skeletal muscle and the type of surgical procedure for hepatectomy were independent risk factors for postoperative complications after elective hepatectomy in elderly patients. The new preoperative risk score is simple, easy to perform, and will help in the detection of high-risk elderly patients undergoing elective hepatectomy.

scholarly journals Stroke prediction in patients presenting with isolated dizziness in the emergency department

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
June-sung Kim ◽  
Hong Jun Bae ◽  
Muyeol Kim ◽  
Shin Ahn ◽  
Chang Hwan Sohn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Acute Stroke ◽  
Neurological Deficits ◽  
Cerebrovascular Injury ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Record Review

AbstractDiagnosing stroke in patients experiencing dizziness without neurological deficits is challenging for physicians. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of acute stroke in patients who presented with isolated dizziness without neurological deficits at the emergency department (ED), and determine the relevant stroke predictors in this population. This was an observational, retrospective record review of consecutive 2215 adult patients presenting with dizziness at the ED between August 2019 and February 2020. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors for acute stroke. 1239 patients were enrolled and analyzed. Acute stroke was identified in 55 of 1239 patients (4.5%); most cases (96.3%) presented as ischemic stroke with frequent involvement (29.1%) of the cerebellum. In the multivariate analysis, the history of cerebrovascular injury (odds ratio [OR] 3.08 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.24 to 7.67]) and an age of > 65 years (OR 3.01 [95% CI 1.33 to 6.83]) were the independent risk factors for predicting acute stroke. The combination of these two risks showed a higher specificity (94.26%) than that of each factor alone. High-risk patients, such as those aged over 65 years or with a history of cerebrovascular injury, may require further neuroimaging workup in the ED to rule out stroke.

scholarly journals Stroke prediction in patients presenting with isolated dizziness in the emergency department

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
June-sung Kim ◽  
Hong Jun Bae ◽  
Muyeol Kim ◽  
Shin Ahn ◽  
Chang Hwan Sohn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Multivariate Analysis ◽  
Acute Stroke ◽  
Neurological Deficits ◽  
Cerebrovascular Injury ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
History Of ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Record Review

Abstract Diagnosing stroke in patients experiencing dizziness without neurological deficits is challenging for physicians. This study tried to evaluate the prevalence of acute stroke in patients who presented with isolated dizziness without neurological deficits at the emergency department (ED), and determine the relevant stroke predictors in this population. This was an observational, retrospective record review of consecutive 2,215 adult patients presenting with dizziness at the ED between August 2019 and February 2020. Multivariate analysis was performed to identify risk factors for acute stroke. 1,239 patients were enrolled and analyzed. Acute stroke was identified in 55 of 1,239 patients (4.5%); most cases (96.3%) presented as ischemic stroke with frequent involvement (29.1%) of the cerebellum. In the multivariate analysis, the history of cerebrovascular injury (odds ratio [OR] 3.08 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.24 to 7.67]) and an age of > 65 years (OR 3.01 [95% CI 1.33 to 6.83]) were the independent risk factors for predicting acute stroke. The combination of these two risks showed a higher specificity (94.26%) than that of each factor alone. High-risk patients, such as those aged over 65 years or with a history of cerebrovascular injury, may require further neuroimaging workup in the ED to rule out stroke.

Independent predictors of morbidity after image-guided stereotactic brain biopsy: a risk assessment of 270 cases

2005 ◽  
Vol 102 (5) ◽  
pp. 897-901 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew J. McGirt ◽  
Graeme F. Woodworth ◽  
Alex L. Coon ◽  
James M. Frazier ◽  
Eric Amundson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Basal Ganglia ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Brain Biopsy ◽  
Stereotactic Brain Biopsy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Image Guided ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Thalamic Lesions ◽  
Fine Print

Object. Image-guided stereotactic brain biopsy is associated with transient and permanent incidences of morbidity in 9 and 4.5% of patients, respectively. The goal of this study was to perform a critical analysis of risk factors predictive of an enhanced operative risk in frame-based and frameless stereotactic brain biopsy. Methods. The authors reviewed the clinical and neuroimaging records of 270 patients who underwent consecutive frame-based and frameless image-guided stereotactic brain biopsies. The association between preoperative variables and biopsy-related morbidity was assessed by performing a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Transient and permanent stereotactic biopsy-related morbidity was observed in 23 (9%) and 13 (5%) patients, respectively. A hematoma occurred at the biopsy site in 25 patients (9%); 10 patients (4%) were symptomatic. Diabetes mellitus (odds ratio [OR] 3.73, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.37–10.17, p = 0.01), thalamic lesions (OR 4.06, 95% CI 1.63–10.11, p = 0.002), and basal ganglia lesions (OR 3.29, 95% CI 1.05–10.25, p = 0.04) were independent risk factors for morbidity. In diabetic patients, a serum level of glucose that was greater than 200 mg/dl on the day of biopsy had a 100% positive predictive value and a glucose level lower than 200 mg/dl on the same day had a 95% negative predictive value for biopsy-related morbidity. Pontine biopsy was not a risk factor for morbidity. Only two (4%) of 45 patients who had epilepsy before the biopsy experienced seizures postoperatively. The creation of more than one needle trajectory increased the incidence of neurological deficits from 17 to 44% when associated with the treatment of deep lesions (those in the basal ganglia or thalamus; p = 0.05), but was not associated with morbidity when associated with the treatment of cortex lesions. Conclusions. Basal ganglia lesions, thalamic lesions, and patients with diabetes were independent risk factors for biopsy-associated morbidity. Hyperglycemia on the day of biopsy predicted morbidity in the diabetic population. Epilepsy did not predispose to biopsy-associated seizure. For deep-seated lesions, increasing the number of biopsy samples along an established track rather than performing a second trajectory may minimize the incidence of morbidity. Close perioperative observation of glucose levels may be warranted.

scholarly journals Acute Kidney Disease and Mortality in Acute Kidney Injury Patients with COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 4599
Author(s):  
Filipe Marques ◽  
Joana Gameiro ◽  
João Oliveira ◽  
José Agapito Fonseca ◽  
Inês Duarte ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Kidney Disease ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Kidney Injury ◽  
Risk Of Mortality ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Acute Kidney Disease ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Stage 1

Background: The incidence of AKI in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients is variable and has been associated with worse prognosis. A significant number of patients develop persistent kidney damage defined as Acute Kidney Disease (AKD). There is a lack of evidence on the real impact of AKD on COVID-19 patients. We aim to identify risk factors for the development of AKD and its impact on mortality in COVID-19 patients. Methods: Retrospective analysis of COVID-19 patients with AKI admitted at the Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte between March and August of 2020. The Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) classification was used to define AKI. AKD was defined by presenting at least KDIGO Stage 1 criteria for >7 days after an AKI initiating event. Results: In 339 COVID-19 patients with AKI, 25.7% patients developed AKD (n = 87). The mean age was 71.7 ± 17.0 years, baseline SCr was 1.03 ± 0.44 mg/dL, and the majority of patients were classified as KDIGO stage 3 AKI (54.3%). The in-hospital mortality was 18.0% (n = 61). Presence of hypertension (p = 0.006), CKD (p < 0.001), lower hemoglobin (p = 0.034) and lower CRP (p = 0.004) at the hospital admission and nephrotoxin exposure (p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for the development of AKD. Older age (p = 0.003), higher serum ferritin at admission (p = 0.008) and development of AKD (p = 0.029) were independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19-AKI patients. Conclusions: AKD was significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in this population of COVID-19-AKI patients. Considering the significant risk of mortality in AKI patients, it is of paramount importance to identify the subset of higher risk patients.

scholarly journals Incidence and risk factors associated with human albumin administration following total joint arthroplasty: a multicenter retrospective study

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaoyun Zhang ◽  
Haibo Si ◽  
Jinwei Xie ◽  
Yuangang Wu ◽  
Qinsheng Hu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Enhanced Recovery ◽  
Human Albumin ◽  
Albumin Level ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Patient Demographics ◽  
Colloidal Fluids ◽  
Risk Patients ◽  
Goal Directed Fluid Therapy ◽  
Independent Risk Factors

Abstract Background Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) program advocates implementation of perioperative goal-directed fluid therapy and reduced application of colloidal fluids. It should be used reasonably selectively in high-risk patients despite the clear efficacy of human albumin (HA). Therefore, it is vital to identify the risk factors for the use of HA. This study aims to determine the incidence and risk factors of HA administration in patients undergoing total hip or knee arthroplasty (THA, TKA). Methods We identified patients undergoing THA or TKA in multiple institutions from 2014 to 2016 and collected patient demographics and perioperative variables. The criterion of HA administration was defined as a postoperative albumin level < 32 g/L or 32 to 35 g/L for at-risk patients. We compared 14 variables between patients who received HA administration and those who did not after stratification by the preoperative albumin (pre-ALB) level. Multivariable regressions identified the independent risk factors associated with HA administration. Results In total, 958 (20.3%) of 4713 patients undergoing THA and 410 (9.7%) of 4248 patients undergoing TKA received HA administration. In addition to pre-ALB < 35 g/L, preoperative anemia (odds ratio [OR] 2.12, P = 0.001; OR 1.39, P < 0.001) and drain use (OR 3.33, P = 0.001; OR 4.25, P < 0.001) were also independent risk factors for HA administration after THA regardless pre-ALB < 35 g/L or not, and patients undergoing TKA diagnosed of rheumatoid arthritis or ankylosing spondylitis tended to receive HA administration regardless pre-ALB < 35 g/L or not (OR 3.67, P = 0.002; OR 2.06, P < 0.001). Conclusions The incidence of HA administration was high in patients undergoing THA or TKA, and several variables were risk factors for HA administration. This finding may aid surgeons in preoperatively identifying patients requiring HA administration and optimizing perioperative managements.

scholarly journals Association of Biomarkers Related to Preoperative Inflammatory and Coagulation with Postoperative In-Hospital Deaths in Patients with Type A Acute Aortic Dissection

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming Li ◽  
Haifeng Sun ◽  
Suochun Xu ◽  
Yang Yan ◽  
Haichen Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Type A ◽  
Hospital Deaths ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
D Dimer

Abstract Background: The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive value of biomarkers related to preoperative inflammatory and coagulation in the prognosis of patients with type A acute aortic dissection (AAD). Methods: A total of 206 patients with type A AAD who had received surgical treatment were enrolled. Patients were divided into two groups according to whether they died during hospitalization. Peripheral blood samples were collected before anesthesia induction. Preoperative levels of D-dimer, fibrinogen (FIB), platelet (PLT), white blood cells (WBC) and neutrophil (NEU) between the two groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were utilized to identify the independent risk factors for postoperative in-hospital deaths of patients with type A AAD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to analyze the predictive value of D-dimer, FIB, PLT, WBC, NEU and CRP in the prognosis of the patients. Results: Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that the P values of the five parameters including D-dimer, FIB, PLT, WBC and NEU were all less than 0.1, which may be risk factors for postoperative in-hospital deaths of patients with type A AAD. Further multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that higher preoperative D-dimer and WBC levels were independent risk factors for in-hospital deaths of patients with type A AAD. ROC curve analysis indicated that FIB+PLT combination is provided with the highest predictive value for in-hospital deaths.Conclusion: Both preoperative D-dimer and WBC in patients with type A AAD may be used as independent risk factors for the prognosis of such patients. Combined use of FIB and PLT may improve the accuracy and accessibility of clinical prognostic assessment.

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