The Role of Chance in Fencing Tournaments: an Agent-Based Approach
Abstract It is a widespread belief that success is mainly due to innate qualities, rather than to external forces.This is particularly true in sport competitions, where individual talent is usually considered the main, if not the only, ingredient in order to reach success. In this study, with the help of both real data and agent-based simulations, we explore the limits of this belief by quantifying the relative weight of talent and chance in fencing, a combat sport involving a weapon. Fencing competitions are structured as direct elimination tournaments, where randomness is explicitly present in some rules. Our dataset covers the last decade of international events and consists of both single competition results and annual rankings for male and female fencers under 20 years old (Junior category). Our model is calibrated on the dataset and parametrized by just one free variable 'a' describing the importance of talent - and, consequently, of chance - in competitions (a = 1 indicates the ideal scenario where only talent matters, a = 0 the complete random one). Our agent-based approach is able to reproduce the main stylized facts observed in real data, at the level of both single fencing tournaments and entire careers of a given community of fencers. We find that simulations approximate very well the real data for both Junior Men and Women when talent weights slightly less than chance, i.e. when 'a' is around 0.45. We conclude that the role of chance in fencing is unusually high and it probably represents an extreme case for individual sports. Our results shed light on the importance of external factors in both athletes' results in single tournaments and their entire career, making even more unfair the ``winner-takes-all'' disparities in remuneration which often occur among the winner and the other classified.