Impacts of climate change on multi-year dynamics of seasonal freezing in Moscow Region: retrospective analysis and uncertainties in forecasting for the second half of the 21st century.

In this study, a regional climate model was used to dynamically downscale 15 future climate projections from three GCMs covering four emission scenarios (SRES B1, A1FI, A1B, A2) based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets to 6-km horizontal resolution over the whole Peninsular Malaysia. Impacts of climate change in the 21st century on the precipitation, air temperature, and soil water storage were assessed covering ten watersheds and twelve coastal regions. Then, by coupling a physical hydrology model with the regional climate model, the impacts of the climate change on river flows were assessed at the outlets of ten watersheds in Peninsular Malaysia. It was found that the increase in the 30-year mean annual precipitation from 1970–2000 to 2070–2100 will vary from 17.1 to 36.3 percent among the ten watersheds, and from 22.9 to 45.4 percent among twelve coastal regions. The ensemble average of the basin-average annual mean air temperature will increase about 2.52 °C to 2.95 °C from 2010 to 2100. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year mean basin-average annual mean soil water storage over the ten watersheds will vary from 0.7 to 10.9 percent at the end of 21st century, and that over the twelve coastal regions will vary from −1.7 to 15.8 percent. Ensemble averages of the annual mean flows of the 15 projections show increasing trends for the 10 watersheds, especially in the second half of the 21st century. In comparison to the historical period, the change in the 30-year average annual mean flows will vary from −2.1 to 14.3 percent in the early 21st century, 4.4 to 23.8 percent in the middle 21st century, and 19.1 to 45.8 percent in the end of 21st century.

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Climate and land use change impacts on global terrestrial ecosystems and river flows in the HadGEM2-ES Earth system model using the representative concentration pathways

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-12-1317-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 12 (5) ◽

pp. 1317-1338 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

R. A. Betts ◽

N. Golding ◽

P. Gonzalez ◽

J. Gornall ◽

R. Kahana ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Land Cover ◽

Land Cover Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽

Earth System Model ◽

System Model ◽

Earth System ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. A new generation of an Earth system model now includes a number of land-surface processes directly relevant to analyzing potential impacts of climate change. This model, HadGEM2-ES, allows us to assess the impacts of climate change, multiple interactions, and feedbacks as the model is run. This paper discusses the results of century-scale HadGEM2-ES simulations from an impacts perspective – specifically, terrestrial ecosystems and water resources – for four different scenarios following the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2013, 2014). Over the 21st century, simulated changes in global and continental-scale terrestrial ecosystems due to climate change appear to be very similar in all 4 RCPs, even though the level of global warming by the end of the 21st century ranges from 2 °C in the lowest scenario to 5.5° in the highest. A warming climate generally favours broadleaf trees over needleleaf, needleleaf trees over shrubs, and shrubs over herbaceous vegetation, resulting in a poleward shift of temperate and boreal forests and woody tundra in all scenarios. Although climate related changes are slightly larger in scenarios of greater warming, the largest differences between scenarios arise at regional scales as a consequence of different patterns of anthropogenic land cover change. In the model, the scenario with the lowest global warming results in the most extensive decline in tropical forest cover due to a large expansion of agriculture. Under all four RCPs, fire potential could increase across extensive land areas, particularly tropical and sub-tropical latitudes. River outflows are simulated to increase with higher levels of CO2 and global warming in all projections, with outflow increasing with mean temperature at the end of the 21st century at the global scale and in North America, Asia, and Africa. In South America, Europe, and Australia, the relationship with climate warming and CO2 rise is less clear, probably as a result of land cover change exerting a dominant effect in those regions.

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Hydrological impacts of climate change in the Yellow River Basin for the 21st century using hydrological model and statistical downscaling model

Quaternary International ◽

10.1016/j.quaint.2010.12.001 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 244 (2) ◽

pp. 211-220 ◽

Cited By ~ 65

Author(s):

Lüliu Liu ◽

Zhaofei Liu ◽

Xiyan Ren ◽

Thomas Fischer ◽

Ying Xu

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Statistical Downscaling ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Yellow River ◽

Yellow River Basin ◽

The Yellow River ◽

Statistical Downscaling Model ◽

The Yellow River Basin ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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The potential impacts of climate change on capital in the 21st century

Ecological Economics ◽

10.1016/j.ecolecon.2019.04.009 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 162 ◽

pp. 74-86 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Panagiotis Tsigaris ◽

Joel Wood

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

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Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Physical and Biogeochemical Environment in Southeast Asian Seas

10.21203/rs.3.rs-552834/v1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Susan Kay ◽

Arlene L. Avillanosa ◽

Victoria V. Cheung ◽

Ngoc Hung Dao ◽

Benjamin J. Gonzales ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Change ◽

21St Century ◽

Regional Scale ◽

Coastal Communities ◽

Small Scale ◽

Biogeochemical Model ◽

Temperature Changes ◽

Natural Systems ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract The seas of Southeast Asia are home to some of the world’s most diverse ecosystems and resources that support the livelihoods and wellbeing of millions of people. Climate change will bring temperature changes, acidification and other environmental change, with uncertain consequences for human and natural systems in the region. We present the first regional-scale projections of change in the marine environment up to the end of 21st century. A coupled physical-biogeochemical model with a resolution of 0.1° (approximately 11 km) was used to create projections of future environmental conditions under two greenhouse gas scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These show a sea that is warming by 1.1–2.9°C through the 21st century, with surface pH falling by up to 0.02 and dissolved oxygen decreasing by 5 to 13 mmol m− 3. Changes for different parts of the region, including four sensitive coastal sites, are presented. The changes reach all parts of the water column and many places are projected to experience conditions well outside the range seen at the start of the century. Altered species distribution and damage to coral reefs resulting from this environmental change would have consequences for biodiversity, for the livelihoods of small-scale fishers and for the food security of coastal communities across the region. Projections of this type are a key tool for communities planning how they will adapt to the challenge of climate change.

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