scholarly journals Does the Equity Market Reward “Superior” Management Earnings Forecast? Evidence from the U.S. Quarterly Earnings Guidance

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-30
Author(s):  
Tina Wang ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Accounting Information ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Equity Capital ◽  
Earnings Guidance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Quarterly Earnings

This paper examines whether equity markets reward the controversial practice of issuing short-term management earnings forecasts. Using a large sample of quarterly earnings forecasts, this research found that firms may temporarily reduce stock price volatility by issuing quarterly earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the analysis showed that not all guidance issuers are equally rewarded by equity capital markets. The benefits of reduced stock price volatility and favorable market valuation primarily accrue to firms with a track record of supplying accurate and timely short-term earnings forecasts. Findings suggest that superior short-term earnings guidance, which fosters transparent financial information environments and reduces investor information uncertainty, is indeed rewarded by equity capital markets. As limited research examines the association between forecast attributes and the capital market consequences of quarterly earnings guidance, this study aimed to provide empirical evidence on equity capital market rewards by issuing high-quality quarterly earnings guidance. A practical implication is that firms need to invest in accounting information systems and accounting talent in order to achieve capital market benefits of supplying high-quality short-term earnings forecasts. Keywords: quarterly earnings guidance, forecast attributes, accounting information system, equity market rewards, United States

Znaczenie czynników behawioralnych w podejmowaniu decyzji inwestycyjnych na rynku kapitałowym

2016 ◽  
pp. 173-183
Author(s):  
Mirosław Wasilewski ◽  
Marta Juszczyk
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Emotional States ◽  
Psychological Conditions ◽  
History Of ◽  
Research Show

The aim of the study was to investigate the investors’ opinions concerning the usefulness of behavioral factors for investment decisions. The research was carried out in the group of 100 investors, using the services of five brokerages with a long history of operation. The results of the research show that people’s psychological conditions and sentiment in the stock market play an important role in the decision-making process of investors in the capital market. The importance of this factor increased with the length of the investment period. The emotional states of people and their psychological conditions affect the stock price volatility. However, the complexity of the determinants of stock prices makes the market value of stocks can be affected by many factors at the same time and investors seem aware of this.

Estimating defaults in organized security lending markets

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 343-362
Author(s):  
Latif Cem Osken ◽  
Ceylan Onay ◽  
Gözde Unal
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Central Counterparties ◽  
Risk Determinants

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of the security lending process and lending markets to identify the market-wide variables reflecting the characteristics of the stock borrowed and to measure the credit risk arising from lending contracts. Design/methodology/approach Using the data provided by Istanbul Settlement and Custody Bank on the equity lending contracts of Securities Lending and Borrowing Market between 2010 and 2012 and the data provided by Borsa Istanbul on Equity Market transactions for the same timeframe, this paper analyzes whether stock price volatility, stock returns, return per unit amount of risk and relative liquidity of lending market and equity market affect the defaults of lending contracts by using both linear regression and ordinary least squares regression for robustness and proxying the concepts of relative liquidity, volatility and return constructs by more than variable to correlate findings. Findings The results illustrate a statistically significant relationship between volatility and the default state of the lending contracts but fail to establish a connection between default states and stock returns or relative liquidity of markets. Research limitations/implications With the increasing pressure for clearing security lending contracts in central counterparties, it is imperative for both central counterparties and regulators to be able to precisely measure the risk exposure due to security lending transactions. The results gained from a limited set of lending transactions merit further studies to identify non-borrower and non-systemic credit risk determinants. Originality/value This is the first study to analyze the non-borrower and non-systemic credit risk determinants in security lending markets.

scholarly journals To Define Window Dressing in the State Owned Enterprises and Private Companies (Case Study in Indonesia Stock Exchange LQ45)

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Private Sector ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Private Companies ◽  
Window Dressing ◽  
Agriculture Industry

Window dressing in capital market can be defined as the activities of company to increase the stock price. This study was conducted to observe all the activities of window dressing in some companies listed in stock market. The detection of window dressing in this study was focused based on the samples from state owned companies (Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk, and Adhi Karya Tbk) and private sector from Astra Agro Lestari (Agriculture Industry). GARCH model was used while window dressing was analyzed by using the method given by Owens and Wu (2011). Results indicate that the best model to explain the behavior of volatility is AR(1)-GARCH(1,1). However, window dressing for three companies mentioned was occurred in 2014-2016; 2014 and 2016, respectively. In additional to that the t-test, was found to be significant for the three companies while the short-term average was above than the long-term average of the year.

scholarly journals Pattern Of Short-Term Volatility Accentuation Within The Trading Day: An Investigation Of The U.S. And European Equity Markets

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Ozenbas
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Discovery ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Major Index ◽  
Short Period ◽  
The Individual

Trading friction leads into accentuated stock price volatility over the short term. As such, short-term accentuated volatility can be viewed as symptomatic of a market with increased inefficiencies in the price discovery process. If price discovery is marked by price swings, runs and reversals, then short period (intra-day) volatility is heightened in that market. In this study, we use return series with various differencing intervals that are as short as half-hour and as long as two weeks to investigate the short-term volatility accentuation in five different equity markets: the Nasdaq Stock Market and the New York Stock Exchange in the US, and the London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Boerse and Euronext Paris in Europe. In all these markets, we investigate the individual stocks that make up a major index during the calendar year 2000. Variance-ratio statistics are employed to investigate the quality of these five markets. Results confirm an intra-day reverse J-shaped pattern of half-hour volatility in these markets. The evidence also suggests an accentuation of volatility during longer periods, such as 24-hour intervals. This accentuation appears to subside when we extend our differencing interval to longer periods such as one-week or two-week returns.

Characteristics and Implications of Long-Term Earnings Guidance

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-54
Author(s):  
Andrew C. Call ◽  
Adam M. Esplin ◽  
Bin Miao
Keyword(s):  
Voluntary Disclosure ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Real Earnings Management ◽  
Limited Attention ◽  
Earnings Guidance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Operating Environments ◽  
Growth Forecasts

ABSTRACT We examine a form of voluntary disclosure that has received limited attention to date, namely, managers' long-term guidance for earnings three to five years in advance. We identify 1,739 long-term earnings forecasts issued by 295 unique firms from 2000 to 2012 and find that relative to firms that issue only short-term earnings guidance, those that also issue long-term guidance are larger, have more certain operating environments, and are followed by analysts who are more likely to issue long-term growth forecasts. Long-term guidance is informative to investors and analysts incorporate the news contained in these forecasts into their own long-term growth forecasts. We also document that the issuance of long-term guidance is associated with more (less) investor focus on long-term (short-term) earnings news. Last, we find mixed evidence on the association between long-term guidance and real earnings management decisions. Our study adds to the literature on managers' voluntary disclosure choices. Data Availability: Data are available from the public sources cited in the text. JEL Classifications: G17; M41.

scholarly journals The influence of dividend policy on the volatility of shares in the Romanian equity capital market

2018 ◽  
Vol 184 ◽  
pp. 04008
Author(s):  
Ciprian Cristea ◽  
Maria Cristea
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Equity Capital ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Relationship

Dividend policy is one of the most debated topics in corporate finance and, at the same time, it represents an important issue from the perspective of both the managers of the firm and the investors. To the best of our knowledge, the literature regarding establishing the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility of non-financial companies listed on Romanian stock market remains inexistent. This study attempts to identify how the share price volatility of non-financial companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange for a period of sixteen years from 2002 and 2017 is influenced by corporate dividend policy. Results from a cross sectional multiple regression analysis revealed a negative effect of the two components of the dividend policy on the share price volatility. The results support the idea that the lower the dividend yield, the higher the risk to be faced by the shareholder. Growth in assets and share price were negatively related. Positive relationship between firm size and debt ratio to price volatility were identified. However, there was no significant relationship found between earning volatility and price volatility in the Romanian stock market.

Benefits of management disclosure precision on analysts’ forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 371-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu-Ho Chi ◽  
David A. Ziebart
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Management Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Earnings Guidance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Management Forecast ◽  
Forecast Precision ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of management’s choice of forecast precision on the subsequent dispersion and accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Design/methodology/approach – Using a sample of 3,584 yearly management earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and 10,287 quarterly management EPS forecasts made during the period of 2002-2007 and collected from the First Call database, the authors controlled for factors previously found to impact analysts’ forecast accuracy and dispersion and investigate the link between management forecast precision and attributes of the analysts’ forecasts. Findings – Results provide empirical evidence that managements’ disclosure precision has a statistically significant impact on both the dispersion and the accuracy of subsequent analysts’ forecasts. It was found that the dispersion in analysts’ forecasts is negatively related to the management forecast precision. In other words, a precise management forecast is associated with a smaller dispersion in the subsequent analysts’ forecasts. Evidence consistent with accuracy in subsequent analysts’ forecasts being positively associated with the precision in the management forecast was also found. When the present analysis focuses on range forecasts provided by management, it was found that lower precision (a larger range) is associated with a larger dispersion among analysts and larger forecast errors. Practical implications – Evidence suggests a consistency in inferences across both annual and quarterly earnings forecasts by management. Accordingly, recent calls to eliminate earnings guidance through short-term quarterly management forecasts may have failed to consider the linkage between the attributes (precision) of those forecasts and the dispersion and accuracy in subsequent analysts’ forecasts. Originality/value – This study contributes to the literature on both management earnings forecasts and analysts’ earnings forecasts. The results assist in policy deliberations related to calls to eliminate short-term management earnings guidance.

scholarly journals Die neue Ökonomie des Shareholder Value

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (122) ◽  
pp. 47-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Sablowski ◽  
Joachim Rupp
Keyword(s):  
Market Orientation ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Business Models ◽  
Shareholder Value ◽  
Central Element ◽  
Governance System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Corporate Governance System

In this paper we argue that the growing importance of the stock mark et i s one central element of t he s o called New Economy. W e analyse the economic and political reasons, the mechanisms and consequences of the increasing capital market orientation of enterprises. In the first section we want to show the fundamental difference between the maximisation of the stock price and of the profitability of the corporation. T he r easons o f the increasing c apital m ark et o rientation a re d ealt w ith in the second section. In the third section we are discussing the shareholder value concept. The institutional changes we can find in the German Corporate Governance system which are connected with the shareholder value debate are described in the fourth section. The last section sums up the consequences and the specific contradictions of the increasing capital market orientation like the contradiction between long-term and short-term maximisation of returns, the impending hollowing-out of firm competencies, and the proliferation of cash burning business models.

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