Scenario planning for the development of spatial economic and social systems: Methodological approaches

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1839-1868
Author(s):  
V.Yu. Maslikhina

Subject. This article reviews and systematizes methodological approaches to generate scenarios and develop a scenario planning algorithm in relation to spatial socio-economic systems. Objectives. The article aims to analyze and classify scenarios and algorithms of scenario planning, as well as choose and justify an approach to scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison, and classification. Results. The article clarifies the definitions of Scenario and Scenario Planning and categorizes scenarios according to different criteria. It reveals the gap between the theory and practice of scenario planning in Russian regions. The article also offers certain recommendations on the use of scenarios in regional planning. Conclusions. The article concludes that the hybrid approach in scenario planning of the development of spatial socio-economic systems (countries, regions, cities, municipalities) is more preferable than the exploratory or normative ones.

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 16-20
Author(s):  
Ярцева ◽  
Svyetlana YArtsyeva ◽  
Зотов ◽  
V. Zotov

The authors, who are the experts in anthropogenic systems management technology, revealed the phenomenon of virtual reality from the point of its practical signifi cance for developing society management strategies. The method of strategic planning regards virtual reality asa theoretical and philosophical basis for the design and virtualization of economic and mathematical images of the real socio-economic systems in the generated virtual world. Particular attention is paid to the fundamental properties of socio-economic systems, causing an objective link of their virtual images with the principles of nonlinear dynamics.Using virtual reality elements is exemplifi ed on “DYN-Prognoz” simulation, targeted at the development of social systems managing strategies. Authors proposed to use generative virtual reality related by feedback to time continuum with advanced virtual image as a new direction in social and economic forecasting.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Pala Basil Mera Molisa

<p>Indicators show that we live in a time of unprecedented global crises. Violence and abuse are epidemic, social inequalities are increasing, the global socioeconomic system is locked on a path of ecocidal growth, and a climate catastrophe looms. These patterns indicate that our social systems are failing and require radical change. However, most social accounting research (“SAR”) and practice, in line with most of the wider fields of accounting research and practice, have ignored or underplayed these grave realities and have failed to analyse critically the systems of power from which these crises have arisen. And critical scholars have shown that this unreflective lack of critique is due in part to social accounting research and practice being inadvertently “captured” by hegemonic discourses and theories that serve as ideological props for existing systems of power.  This thesis explores how SAR and practice could be re-oriented so as to be more effective in addressing the social and ecological crises we face today, first, by making use of a range of critical social theories to examine how social accounting research and practice might be “captured” and become complicit in perpetuating these crises, and secondly, by using ideas from Paulo Freire’s radical pedagogy to explore how they could more honestly confront these realities. The empirical centrepiece of the analysis is the Building Capacity for Sustainable Development (“BCSD”) project’s National Sustainability Scenarios initiative – a social accounting case study which forms part of this PhD – and it is extended to an interrogation of dialogic SAR and SAR more broadly.  The contributions of this thesis are four-fold: methodologically, it offers analytical heuristics for making sense of social accounting research and practice as hegemonically structured and ideologically-laden fields that are directly implicated in perpetuating social-ecological crises, and for evaluating engagement practices from a critical pedagogical standpoint; empirically, this thesis evaluates a case study using a social accounting technology – scenario planning – that to date is under-researched; in terms of analysis, it builds on earlier critiques of social accounting “capture” by extending it to “critical” forms of SAR and interrogates this “capture” in relation to systems of power such as capitalism, industrial civilization, white supremacy and patriarchy that tend mostly to be overlooked in the literature, both singularly and as intersecting systems; and in terms of reconstructive exploration, this thesis offers insights on how social accounting research and practice might look if driven by the critical pedagogical imperatives of truth-telling – that is, facing rather than evading the realities of systemic violence and structural power that we are confronted with today.  Although SAR is broadly concerned about social justice and ecological sustainability, this thesis shows that much of it legitimates the intersecting systems of predatory capitalism, white supremacy, and patriarchy and downplays the realities of imperialism, colonization, class warfare, patriarchal violence, and ecocide that these systems of power produce. Moreover, and perhaps more problematically, although the BCSD case study, and the dialogic SAR literature which was considered, appeared to be underpinned by many of the ethical principles of critical pedagogy, deeper analysis revealed that they too align more closely with an uncritical liberalism, rather than critical pedagogy, in their unwillingness to challenge the social hierarchies and ongoing realities of imperialism, colonization, and catastrophic violence to which they give rise. A reconstruction of the initiative, drawn from more radical interpretations of Freire’s approach, suggests that more critical approaches to social accounting and engagement praxis are possible, although not without challenges because they would require that social accounting scholars privilege the intellectual and moral values of truth and justice over those of privilege and power.</p>


2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (1/2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Gallon

In 1950, 113 million people lived in South America, in 2008, 385 million, more than three times. Half of them live in poverty. In 2050, about 485 million people will be living there. Contemporary population dynamics figures on a global average show that by each birth in a rich family there are 38 in poor families. Then it’s necessary to think on new social, ecological and economic systems models to analyze and synthesize their possible sustainability from two perspectives: natural and artificial, and to research on how they are possible and behave. This paper shows the process of building, with the help of first and second order cybernetics tools, a theoretical and practical framework for modeling South America using Systems Dynamics and explores questions such as: Is it possible to reduce poverty following a sustainable path? What is the kind of steady state behind the sustainability ideas? In what sense is it possible to talk of artificial sustainability? What relationship can be found between the scales of space and time of the human perspective and of the sustainability and the dynamics of the new social equilibriums? How such exploration enriches the understanding of social systems and human behavior? What contributions can be offered from such analysis and synthesis to contribute to sustainability? How can the structure and dynamics of South America helps to answer those questions? The obtained results will serve to discover possible inconsistencies and counterintuitive behaviors in traditional conceptions of poverty, development and sustainability.


2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (12) ◽  
pp. 2237-2261
Author(s):  
Ol’ga S. BELOKUR ◽  
Veronika Yu. MASLIKHINA ◽  
Galina S. TSVETKOVA

Subject. This article considers the issues of application of scenario planning techniques in the process of constructing alternative scenarios for the development of spatial socio-economic systems in the context of changes, complexity, and uncertainty. Objectives. The article aims to form a scenario planning algorithm for spatial socio-economic systems and its implementation in relation to the Mari El Republic. Methods. For the study, we used the systems approach and foresight techniques. Results. The article presents four alternative scenarios for the development of the provincial region: intensive, technological, moderately technological and pessimistic. The article presents four alternative scenarios for the development of the provincial region, namely, the intensive, technological, moderate technological, and worst-case ones. Conclusions and Relevance. The technological scenario for the provincial region’s development seems to be the most likely. It assumes moderately favorable prospects for attracting investment, which can stimulate the development of regional key industries. The proposed alternative scenarios can serve as a basis for the policy making by regional and municipal authorities.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Pala Basil Mera Molisa

<p>Indicators show that we live in a time of unprecedented global crises. Violence and abuse are epidemic, social inequalities are increasing, the global socioeconomic system is locked on a path of ecocidal growth, and a climate catastrophe looms. These patterns indicate that our social systems are failing and require radical change. However, most social accounting research (“SAR”) and practice, in line with most of the wider fields of accounting research and practice, have ignored or underplayed these grave realities and have failed to analyse critically the systems of power from which these crises have arisen. And critical scholars have shown that this unreflective lack of critique is due in part to social accounting research and practice being inadvertently “captured” by hegemonic discourses and theories that serve as ideological props for existing systems of power.  This thesis explores how SAR and practice could be re-oriented so as to be more effective in addressing the social and ecological crises we face today, first, by making use of a range of critical social theories to examine how social accounting research and practice might be “captured” and become complicit in perpetuating these crises, and secondly, by using ideas from Paulo Freire’s radical pedagogy to explore how they could more honestly confront these realities. The empirical centrepiece of the analysis is the Building Capacity for Sustainable Development (“BCSD”) project’s National Sustainability Scenarios initiative – a social accounting case study which forms part of this PhD – and it is extended to an interrogation of dialogic SAR and SAR more broadly.  The contributions of this thesis are four-fold: methodologically, it offers analytical heuristics for making sense of social accounting research and practice as hegemonically structured and ideologically-laden fields that are directly implicated in perpetuating social-ecological crises, and for evaluating engagement practices from a critical pedagogical standpoint; empirically, this thesis evaluates a case study using a social accounting technology – scenario planning – that to date is under-researched; in terms of analysis, it builds on earlier critiques of social accounting “capture” by extending it to “critical” forms of SAR and interrogates this “capture” in relation to systems of power such as capitalism, industrial civilization, white supremacy and patriarchy that tend mostly to be overlooked in the literature, both singularly and as intersecting systems; and in terms of reconstructive exploration, this thesis offers insights on how social accounting research and practice might look if driven by the critical pedagogical imperatives of truth-telling – that is, facing rather than evading the realities of systemic violence and structural power that we are confronted with today.  Although SAR is broadly concerned about social justice and ecological sustainability, this thesis shows that much of it legitimates the intersecting systems of predatory capitalism, white supremacy, and patriarchy and downplays the realities of imperialism, colonization, class warfare, patriarchal violence, and ecocide that these systems of power produce. Moreover, and perhaps more problematically, although the BCSD case study, and the dialogic SAR literature which was considered, appeared to be underpinned by many of the ethical principles of critical pedagogy, deeper analysis revealed that they too align more closely with an uncritical liberalism, rather than critical pedagogy, in their unwillingness to challenge the social hierarchies and ongoing realities of imperialism, colonization, and catastrophic violence to which they give rise. A reconstruction of the initiative, drawn from more radical interpretations of Freire’s approach, suggests that more critical approaches to social accounting and engagement praxis are possible, although not without challenges because they would require that social accounting scholars privilege the intellectual and moral values of truth and justice over those of privilege and power.</p>


2019 ◽  
pp. 46-64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir V. Klimanov ◽  
Sofiya М. Kazakova ◽  
Anna A. Mikhaylova

The article examines the impact of various socio-economic and financial indicators on the resilience of Russian regions. For each region, the integral index of resilience is calculated, and its correlation dependence with the selected indicators is revealed. The study confirms the relationship between fiscal resilience and socio-economic resilience of the regions. The analysis of panel data for 75 regions from 2007 to 2016 shows that there are significant differences in the dynamics of indicators in different periods. In particular, the degree of exposure to the negative effects of the crises of 2008—2009 and 2014—2015 in non-resilient regions is higher than in resilient ones.


2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 906-921
Author(s):  
R.A. Alborov ◽  
S.M. Kontsevaya ◽  
S.V. Kozmenkova

Subject. This article deals with the theory-and practice-relevant issues of classification and content definition of different types of capital used as sources of operations financing, and recommendations for developing their accounting in agricultural organizations. Objectives. The article aims to substantiate the organizational and methodological aspects of capital accounting development to generate information on value reserve and creation of value as new in the organization's integrated reporting. The article also aims to define the classification and content of capital types as sources of financing for the organization's activities and develop recommendations for developing the accounting of the availability, increase, reduction or transformation of the relevant types of capital in the organization's business activities. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analogy, and comparison. The scientific works of domestic specialists and regulations, including the International Standard on Integrated Reporting (IR) are the methodological basis of this work. Results. The article defines conceptual provisions and offers practical recommendations on the set-up and development of capital flow accounting in the corporate governance system of the agricultural organization. It clarifies the classification and economic content of capital as a source of funding for the organization's reproduction activities. The article also offers an original method of accounting for the value reserve (balances) and capital changes. Conclusions and Relevance. The practical application of the developed recommendations for value accounting and capital changes will help generate all the necessary information in the integrated reporting of the agricultural organization to assess its reserves of value, create value as new, economic, environmental, and social efficiency of the organization's activities. The results of the study can be used to develop the theory, methodology and techniques of accounting of capital types as sources of financing of value creation as a result of the agricultural organization's business activities.


2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 2679-2697
Author(s):  
Lyudmila E. ROMANOVA ◽  
Anna L. SABININA ◽  
Andrei I. CHUKANOV ◽  
Dar’ya M. KORSHUNOVA

Subject. This article deals with the particularities of the development of housing mortgage lending in the regions of Russia. Objectives. The article aims to substantiate the need for clustering of territorial entities by level of development of mortgage housing lending in Russia and test the most effective algorithm for mortgage clustering of regions. Methods. For the study, we used a systems approach, including scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis, and statistical methods of data analysis. The algorithm k-medoids – Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) was also used. Results. Based on the results of the study of regional statistics of the Russian Federation, the article reveals a significant asymmetry in the values of key socioeconomic indices that determine the level and dynamics of housing mortgages in the regions. This necessitates the clustering of territorial entities according to the level of development of mortgage housing lending in the country. To take into account the impact of various local conditions in assessing the prospects for the development of regional housing mortgages, the article proposes an indicator, namely, the integral regional mortgage affordability index. On its basis, in accordance with the selected clustering procedure, the article identifies five mortgage clusters in Russia and identifies their representative regions. Conclusions. Based on the analysis of the specificity of the development of regional mortgages in the Tula Oblast, taking into account the implementation of the target State programme, the article concludes that it is necessary to improve the mechanisms for financing regional mortgage programmes and justifies the need to develop differentiated programmes for the development of housing mortgages in groups of Russian regions.


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