scholarly journals Predicting the Hydrological Impacts of Future Climate Change in a Humid-Subtropical Watershed

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Haroon Rashid ◽  
Kaijie Yang ◽  
Aicong Zeng ◽  
Song Ju ◽  
Abdur Rashid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Runoff Water ◽  
Minjiang River ◽  
The Future

Future climate change is expected to impact the natural systems. This study used future climate data of general circulation models (GCMs) to investigate the impacts of climate change during the future period (2062–2095) relative to the historical period (1981–2014) on the hydrological system of the Minjiang river watershed, China. A previously calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was employed to simulate the future hydrology under the impacts of changes in temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration for four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2, 3, and 5) of the CMIP6. The study revealed that the impacts of increase in future temperature, i.e., increase in ET, and decrease in surface runoff, water, and sediment yield will be countered by increased atmospheric [CO2], and changes in the hydrological parameters in the future will be mostly associated to changes in precipitation. Data of the GCMs for all the SSPs predicts increase in precipitation of the watershed, which will cause increase in surface runoff, water yield, and sediment yield. Surface runoff will increase more in SSP 5 (47%), while sediment and water yield will increase more in SSP 1, by 33% and 23%, respectively. At the seasonal scale, water yield and surface runoff will increase more in autumn and winter in SSP 1, while in other scenarios, these parameters will increase more in the spring and summer seasons. Sediment yield will increase more in autumn in all scenarios. Similarly, the future climate change is predicted to impact the important parameters related to the flow regime of the Minjiang river, i.e., the frequency and peak of large floods (flows > 14,000 m3/s) will increase along the gradient of scenarios, i.e., more in SSP 5 followed by 3, 2, and 1, while duration will increase in SSP 5 and decrease in the other SSPs. The frequency and duration of extreme low flows will increase in SSP 5 while decrease in SSP 1. Moreover, peak of extreme low flows will decrease in all scenarios except SSP 1, in which it will increase. The study will improve the general understanding about the possible impacts of future climate change in the region and provide support for improving the management and protection of the watershed’s water and soil resources.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Future Climate Change Projections on Streamflow Hydrology and Water Availability over Upper Xijiang River Basin, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Touseef ◽  
Lihua Chen ◽  
Tabinda Masud ◽  
Aziz Khan ◽  
Kaipeng Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Agricultural Crop ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Xijiang River ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
The Future

Hydrological models are widely applied for simulating complex watershed processes and directly linking meteorological, topographical, land-use, and geological conditions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated at two monitoring stations, which improved model performance and increased the reliability of flow predictions in the Upper Xijiang River Basin. This study evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow and water yield of the Upper Xijiang River Basin using Arc-SWAT. The model was calibrated (1991–1997) and validated (1998–2001) using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Algorithm (SUFI-2). Model calibration and validation suggest a good match between the measured and simulated monthly streamflow, indicating the applicability of the model for future daily streamflow predictions. Large negative changes of low flows are projected under future climate scenarios, exhibiting a 10% and 30% decrease in water yield over the watershed on a monthly scale. Overall, findings generally indicated that winter flows are expected to be affected the most, with a maximum impact during the January–April period, followed by the wet monsoon season in the May–September period. Water balance components of the Upper Xijiang River Basin are expected to change significantly due to the projected climate change that, in turn, will seriously affect the water resources and streamflow patterns in the future. Thus, critical problems, such as ground water shortages, drops in agricultural crop yield, and increases in domestic water demand are expected at the Xijiang River Basin.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on hydrologic components and occurrence of drought in an agricultural watershed

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Sagar Gautam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Yield Surface ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Cover Crop ◽  
Management System ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Field Scale ◽  
Historic Period

The study on potential acceleration of future hydrologic cycle due to change in precipitation and increase in temperature are essential for managing natural resources and setting policy. The impact of future climate change on hydrologic components of Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) and experimental field (Field1) were assessed using climate datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Agricultural Policy Environmental Extender (APEX). SWAT and APEX models were setup and calibrated for watershed and field scale using observed hydrology data at their respective outlets. The study identified future (2016-2075) occurrence of meteorological, hydrological, agricultural droughts, and extreme events based on projections of future climate in the GCEW and SWAT simulations. Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Streamflow Index, and Soil Moisture Index were used to represent the three types of drought. CMIP5 data were downscaled to watershed and field scale using quantile mapping for precipitation and delta method for temperature. Historical and future ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature, and modeled water yield, surface runoff, and evapotranspiration were compared. At the watershed scale, ensemble SWAT simulated results indicated increased springtime precipitation, water yield, surface runoff and a shift in evapotranspiration peak one month earlier in the future. At field scale, two management system business-As-Usual (BAU) and Aspirational (ASP) management system were compared to access the environmental benefits of improved management system using APEX model. Simulated results indicated that the change in management alone from BAU to ASP during historic period resulted in 25% (162 mm to 120 mm) reduction in surface runoff. The simulated average annual runoff loss was reduced by 16.5% (192 mm to 160 mm) and 18.8% (203 mm to 165 mm) in ASP scenario compared to BAU for ensemble of RCP 8.5 for near and far future respectively. The average ensemble annual soluble nitrogen loss was 8 kg/ha for BAU compared to 3.9 kg/ha for ASP management for baseline historic period. Result indicated the inclusion of no-till and winter cover crop resulted in increased subsurface flow. The result indicates the environmental benefit of crop rotation and cover crop with reduction in runoff and nutrient losses. The ASP management provides surface cover all year round and improves soil quality resulting in lower runoff.

scholarly journals The Influence of Landcover and Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Minjiang River Watershed

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 3554
Author(s):  
Haroon Rashid ◽  
Kaijie Yang ◽  
Aicong Zeng ◽  
Song Ju ◽  
Abdur Rashid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Landcover Change ◽  
Minjiang River ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Runoff And Sediment Yield

Changes in the climate and landcover are the two most important factors that influence terrestrial hydrological systems. Today, watershed-scale hydrological models are widely used to estimate the individual impacts of changes in the climate and landcover on watershed hydrology. The Minjiang river watershed is an ecologically and economically important, humid, subtropical watershed, located in south-eastern China. Several studies are available on the impacts of recent climate change on the watershed; however, no efforts have been made to separate the individual contributions of climate and landcover changes. This study is an attempt to separate the individual impacts of recent (1989–2018) climate and landcover changes on some of the important hydrological components of the watershed, and highlight the most influential changes in climate parameters and landcover classes. A calibrated soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) was employed for the study. The outcomes revealed that, during the study period, water yield decreased by 6.76%, while evapotranspiration, surface runoff and sediment yield increased by 1.08%, 24.11% and 33.85% respectively. The relative contribution of climate change to landcover change for the decrease in the water yield was 95%, while its contribution to the increases in evapotranspiration, surface runoff and sediment yield was 56%, 77% and 51%, respectively. The changes in climate parameters that were most likely responsible for changes in ET were increasing solar radiation and temperature and decreasing wind speed, those for changes in the water yield were decreasing autumn precipitation and increasing solar radiation and temperature, those for the increase in surface runoff were increasing summer and one-day maximum precipitation, while those for the increasing sediment yield were increasing winter and one-day maximum precipitation. Similarly, an increase in the croplands at the expense of needle-leaved forests was the landcover change that was most likely responsible for a decrease in the water yield and an increase in ET and sediment yield, while an increase in the amount of urban land at the expense of broadleaved forests and wetlands was the landcover change that was most likely responsible for increasing surface runoff. The findings of the study can provide support for improving management and protection of the watershed in the context of landcover and climate change.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

Study on runoff simulation of the upstream of Minjiang River under future climate change scenarios

2014 ◽  
Vol 75 (S2) ◽  
pp. 139-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shifeng Huang ◽  
Wenbin Zang ◽  
Mei Xu ◽  
Xiaotao Li ◽  
Xuecheng Xie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Minjiang River ◽  
Upstream Of Minjiang River

scholarly journals Caring for the future: Climate change and intergenerational responsibility in China and the UK

Geoforum ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 105 ◽  
pp. 158-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristina Diprose ◽  
Chen Liu ◽  
Gill Valentine ◽  
Robert M. Vanderbeck ◽  
Katie McQuaid
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk

scholarly journals Heatwaves in the Future Warmer Climate of South Africa

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 712
Author(s):  
Innocent Mbokodo ◽  
Mary-Jane Bopape ◽  
Hector Chikoore ◽  
Francois Engelbrecht ◽  
Nthaduleni Nethengwe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
South African Society ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Future

Weather and climate extremes, such as heat waves (HWs), have become more frequent due to climate change, resulting in negative environmental and socioeconomic impacts in many regions of the world. The high vulnerability of South African society to the impacts of warm extreme temperatures makes the study of the effect of climate change on future HWs necessary across the country. We investigated the projected effect of climate change on future of South Africa with a focus on HWs using an ensemble of regional climate model downscalings obtained from the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) for the periods 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099, with 1983–2012 as the historical baseline. Simulations were performed under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 (moderate greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration) and 8.5 (high GHG concentration) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We found that the 30-year period average maximum temperatures may rise by up to 6 °C across much of the interior of South Africa by 2070–2099 with respect to 1983–2012, under a high GHG concentration. Simulated HW thresholds for all ensemble members were similar and spatially consistent with observed HW thresholds. Under a high GHG concentration, short lasting HWs (average of 3–4 days) along the coastal areas are expected to increase in frequency in the future climate, however the coasts will continue to experience HWs of relatively shorter duration compared to the interior regions. HWs lasting for shorter duration are expected to be more frequent when compared to HWs of longer durations (over two weeks). The north-western part of South Africa is expected to have the most drastic increase in HWs occurrences across the country. Whilst the central interior is not projected to experience pronounced increases in HW frequency, HWs across this region are expected to last longer under future climate change. Consistent patterns of change are projected for HWs under moderate GHG concentrations, but the changes are smaller in amplitude. Increases in HW frequency and duration across South Africa may have significant impacts on human health, economic activities, and livelihoods in vulnerable communities.

scholarly journals Watershed Hydrological Response to Combined Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Change in Highland Ethiopia: Finchaa Catchment

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1801 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wakjira Takala Dibaba ◽  
Tamene Adugna Demissie ◽  
Konrad Miegel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Yield ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
The Future

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate change affect the availability of water resources by altering the magnitude of surface runoff, aquifer recharge, and river flows. The evaluation helps to identify the level of water resources exposure to the changes that could help to plan for potential adaptive capacity. In this research, Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov in IDRISI software was used to predict the future LULC scenarios and the ensemble mean of four regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX)-Africa was used for the future climate scenarios. Distribution mapping was used to bias correct the RCMs outputs, with respect to the observed precipitation and temperature. Then, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate the watershed hydrological responses of the catchment under separate, and combined, LULC and climate change. The result shows the ensemble mean of the four RCMs reported precipitation decline and increase in future temperature under both representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The increases in both maximum and minimum temperatures are higher for higher emission scenarios showing that RCP8.5 projection is warmer than RCP4.5. The changes in LULC brings an increase in surface runoff and water yield and a decline in groundwater, while the projected climate change shows a decrease in surface runoff, groundwater and water yield. The combined study of LULC and climate change shows that the effect of the combined scenario is similar to that of climate change only scenario. The overall decline of annual flow is due to the decline in the seasonal flows under combined scenarios. This could bring the reduced availability of water for crop production, which will be a chronic issue of subsistence agriculture. The possibility of surface water and groundwater reduction could also affect the availability of water resources in the catchment and further aggravate water stress in the downstream. The highly rising demands of water, owing to socio-economic progress, population growth and high demand for irrigation water downstream, in addition to the variability temperature and evaporation demands, amplify prolonged water scarcity. Consequently, strong land-use planning and climate-resilient water management policies will be indispensable to manage the risks.

Assessment of future climate change impacts on the hydrological regime of selected Greek areas with different climate conditions

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (5) ◽  
pp. 1327-1342 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyridon Paparrizos ◽  
Andreas Matzarakis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Water Losses ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Future

Assessment of future variations of streamflow is essential for research regarding climate and climate change. This study is focused on three agricultural areas widespread in Greece and aims to assess the future response of annual and seasonal streamflow and its impacts on the hydrological regime, in combination with other fundamental aspects of the hydrological cycle in areas with different climate classification. ArcSWAT ArcGIS extension was used to simulate the future responses of streamflow. Future meteorological data were obtained from various regional climate models, and analysed for the periods 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. In all the examined areas, streamflow is expected to be reduced. Areas characterized by continental climate will face minor reductions by the mid-century that will become very intense by the end and thus these areas will become more resistant to future changes. Autumn season will face the strongest reductions. Areas characterized by Mediterranean conditions will be very vulnerable in terms of future climate change and winter runoff will face the most significant decreases. Reduced precipitation is the main reason for decreased streamflow. High values of actual evapotranspiration by the end of the century will act as an inhibitor towards reduced runoff and partly counterbalance the water losses.

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