scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Terrestrial Transportation Infrastructures Exposed to Extreme Events

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 163
Author(s):  
Unni Eidsvig ◽  
Monica Santamaría ◽  
Neryvaldo Galvão ◽  
Nikola Tanasic ◽  
Luca Piciullo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Transportation Infrastructure ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Adverse Conditions ◽  
Hazard Exposure ◽  
Made In

Keeping transport links open in adverse conditions and being able to restore connections quickly after extreme events are important and demanding tasks for infrastructure owners/operators. This paper is developed within the H2020 project SAFEWAY, whose main goal is to increase the resilience of terrestrial transportation infrastructure. Risk-based approaches are excellent tools to aid in the decision-making process of planning maintenance and implementation of risk mitigation measures with the ultimate goal of reducing risk and increasing resilience. This paper presents a framework for quantitative risk assessment which guides an integrated assessment of the risk components: hazard, exposure, vulnerability and consequences of a malfunctioning transportation infrastructure. The paper guides the identification of failure modes for transportation infrastructure exposed to extreme events (natural and human-made) and provides models for and examples of hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment. Each assessment step must be made in coherence with the other risk components as an integral part of the risk assessment.

Risk Management for Rail Safety: Post Lac Megantic

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vijay Raghunathan ◽  
Ron Mitchell ◽  
Robin Pitblado ◽  
Hong Wu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Baseline Risk ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Assessment Approach

Following several recent serious rail accidents in North America, changes in regulation and increased public awareness is driving the need to address gaps in rail safety. The industry and regulators have numerous safety initiatives; however prescriptive standards in combination with a performance based approach could be a powerful tool for understanding and mitigating risk in a cost effective way. This paper reviews the principles of safety risk management that can be applied to safe transportation of flammable hydrocarbons by Rail. FRA’s proposed rulemaking on Risk reduction program and its potential impact on the industry are also addressed. The approach proposed in this paper focuses on existing and new proposed safeguards/barriers and how they could be monitored and managed. The paper aims to set the path forward for structured risk based thinking in managing rail safety. The first part of the paper explains the barrier based risk assessment approach using the Lac Megantic accident as an example. A bow-tie is developed to deconstruct the incident timeline and to capture the safeguards that existed at that time and their working status. This diagram cross references Transport Canada’s Investigation findings. The second part of the paper evaluates the new mitigation measures proposed by FRA HM 251 rulemaking (“Enhanced Tank Car Standards and Operational Controls for High-Hazard Flammable Trains” Final Rulemaking”) as potential safeguards and their impact on the overall risk of transportation. A baseline risk is first established for transporting crude by rail assuming some common safeguards in place. A simple Quantitative Risk Assessment methodology including likelihood and consequence was then used to estimate the base case risk. Risk mitigation and effect of any additional new measures like Changes in Rail Tank Car design, Oil Conditioning, Enhanced Braking to Mitigate Damage in Derailments, Speed Limit changes, Positive train control, Train manning when loading are assessed.

Uncertainty Analysis in Quantitative Risk Assessment

1996 ◽  
Vol 118 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Quin ◽  
G. E. O. Widera
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Set Theory ◽  
Fuzzy Set ◽  
Fuzzy Set Theory ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
The Other ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Criticality Analysis

Of the quantitative approaches applied to inservice inspection, failure modes, effects,criticality analysis (FMECA) methodology is recommended. FMECA can provide a straightforward illustration of how risk can be used to prioritize components for inspection (ASME, 1991). But, at present, it has two limitations. One is that it cannot be used in the situation where components have multiple failure modes. The other is that it cannot be used in the situation where the uncertainties in the data of components have nonuniform distributions. In engineering practice, these two situations exist in many cases. In this paper, two methods based on fuzzy set theory are presented to treat these problems. The methods proposed here can be considered as a supplement to FMECA, thus extending its range of applicability.

Development of An Exposure Model for Bridge Structures in Northern Algeria

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés Abarca ◽  
Ricardo Monteiro
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Exposure Model ◽  
Building Stock ◽  
Earthquake Scenarios ◽  
Northern Algeria ◽  
Bridge Structures

In recent years, the use of large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the fragility of a specific region to an earthquake event, through the convolution of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. These studies tend to focus on the building stock of the region and sometimes neglect the evaluation of the infrastructure, which has great importance when determining the ability of a social group to attend to a disaster and to eventually resume normal activities. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), focuses on the proposal of an exposure model for bridge structures in Northern Algeria. The proposed model was developed using existing national data surveys, as well as satellite information and field observations. As a result, the location and detailed characterization of a significant share of the Algeria roadway bridge inventory was developed, as well as the definition of a taxonomy that is able to classify the most common structural systems used in Algerian bridge construction. The outcome of this study serves as input to estimate the fragility of the bridge infrastructure inventory and, furthermore, to the overall risk assessment of the Northern Algerian region. Such fragility model will, in turn, enable the evaluation of earthquake scenarios at a regional scale and provide valuable information to decision makers for the implementation of risk mitigation measures.

Credit Risk Management of Commercial Banks in Nepal

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-37
Author(s):  
Shreya Pradhan ◽  
Ajay K. Shah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Loan Repayment ◽  
Credit Risk Assessment

The study is primarily focused on credit risk assessment practices in commercial banks on the basis of their internal efficiency, assessment of assets and borrower. The model of the study is based on the analysis of relationship between credit risk management practices, credit risk mitigation measures and obstacles and loan repayment. Based on a descriptive research approach the study has used survey-based primary data and performed a correlation analysis on them. It discovered that credit risk management practices and credit risk mitigation measures have a positive relationship with loan repayment, while obstacles faced by borrowers have no significant relationship with loan repayment. The study findings can provide good insights to commercial bank managers in analysing their model of credit risk management system, policies and practices, and in establishing a profitable and sustainable model for credit risk assessment, by setting a risk tolerance level and managing credit risks vis-a-vis the prevailing market competition.

Arc flash: a risk assessment and mitigation strategy

2011 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 737
Author(s):  
Danny Norton ◽  
Dale Wright
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Capital Expenditure ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Safe Work ◽  
Arc Flash

Oil and gas facility managers are well aware that attention to detail saves lives and supports business continuity and reputation. Those tasked with stewardship of electrical assets will be aware of the need to protect their employees from the hazard of electrical arc flash and that it should be at the forefront of safety thinking. Complacency and lack of duty of care with this real and possibly un-quantified hazard can lead to fatalities. The primary solution to arc flash consequences in older installations has been the implementation of safe work procedures and personal protective equipment. While still valid, these solutions are the least effective options in the hierarchy of controls. SKM have developed a practical risk mitigation strategy that considers the hazards of prospective arc flash energy together with the cumulative effect of switchboard age, design, capability and condition. The strategy also considers the range of potential mitigation controls available through the mechanism of substitution and engineering design that focuses on reducing: The likelihood of an arc flash incident occurring; The likelihood of personnel exposure; and, The energy released should an incident occur. A structured arc flash risk assessment process can provide the asset owner the opportunity to rank individual switchboards for likelihood, consequence and risk, and thus provide direction for engineered remediation and capital expenditure. SKM proposes the way in which arc flash risk can be assessed, how appropriate layered mitigation measures might be selected, and how an asset owner may approach the issue of arc flash hazard mitigation to economically and reliably protect its employees.

scholarly journals A Behavioral Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework for Managing Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployments

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 1689-1703 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Brito ◽  
Gwyn Griffiths ◽  
James Ferguson ◽  
David Hopkin ◽  
Richard Mills ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Autonomous Underwater Vehicle ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Operational Risk ◽  
Maximum Error ◽  
Underwater Vehicle ◽  
Behavioral Approach ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Deep Diving

Abstract The deployment of a deep-diving long-range autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) is a complex operation that requires the use of a risk-informed decision-making process. Operational risk assessment is heavily dependent on expert subjective judgment. Expert judgments can be elicited either mathematically or behaviorally. During mathematical elicitation experts are kept separate and provide their assessment individually. These are then mathematically combined to create a judgment that represents the group view. The limitation with this approach is that experts do not have the opportunity to discuss different views and thus remove bias from their assessment. In this paper, a Bayesian behavioral approach to estimate and manage AUV operational risk is proposed. At an initial workshop, behavioral aggregation, that is, reaching agreement on the distributions of risks for faults or incidents, is followed by an agreed upon initial estimate of the likelihood of success of the proposed risk mitigation methods. Postexpedition, a second workshop assesses the new data and compares observed to predicted risk, thus updating the prior estimate using Bayes’ rule. This feedback further educates the experts and assesses the actual effectiveness of the mitigation measures. Applying this approach to an AUV campaign in ice-covered waters in the Arctic showed that the maximum error between the predicted and the actual risk was 9% and that the experts’ assessments of the effectiveness of risk mitigation led to a maximum of 24% in risk reduction.

Semi-Quantitative Risk Assessment Matrix for Rotating Equipment

2013 ◽  
Vol 845 ◽  
pp. 647-651
Author(s):  
Mohd Amin bin Abd Majid ◽  
Rano Khan Wassan ◽  
Ainul Akmar Mokhtar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Guide Vane ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Inlet Guide Vane ◽  
Risk Matrix ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Rotating Equipment ◽  
Blade Failure

In petrochemical, power generation, oil and gas industries and in variety of other sectors rotating equipments are in use to fulfill production requirements. Failure of rotating equipment, especially in such industries can result to risk related issues. A well implemented rotating equipment risk assessment strategy is most needed to achieve desired plant availability and efficiency. In this research semi-quantitative risk assessment approach is proposed to evaluate the risk of rotating equipment and categorize their associated failure risks. Borda ranking is adopted to evaluate the risk in order to minimize risk ties which exist in risk matrix. Compressor is taken as case study to show the applicability of the proposed method for rotating equipment. It was observed that risks of selected failure modes of gas turbine compressor fall in the categories of serious and medium levels based on risk matrix. Rotor bend distortion, blade failure or inlet guide vane failures needed more attention for treatment based on Borda ranking.

Challenges With Oil Spill Risk Assessment in Arctic Regions: Shipping Along the Northern Sea Route

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexei Bambulyak ◽  
Rudiger U. Franz von Bock und Polach ◽  
Sören Ehlers ◽  
Are Sydnes
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil Spill ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Oil Spills ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Geographic Area ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Political Agenda ◽  
Arctic Regions ◽  
Northern Sea Route

Arctic regions, and thus ice-covered waters, are continuously getting higher in the national and international political agenda. The world demand in energy resources and the need in development of new transportation routes are pushing industrial activities up North where we see prospects and expectations on one side, and gaps and challenges on the other. Industrial development of the new geographic area is complex, and the priority in transportation is given to marine shipping. For the recent years, transit cargo shipping through the North Eastern Passage or the Northern Sea Route (NSR) increased more than 10 times from 0.11 million tons (4 passages) in 2010 to 1.36 million tons (71 passages) in 2013. Although, the numbers are small compared to global cargo shipping, the sensitive Arctic environment requires the establishment of a oil spill recovery system as well as risk mitigation measures. This, in turn, requires the preceding development of a risk assessment methodology for oil spills in ice-covered waters. Therefore, this paper presents the challenges involved in Arctic shipping along the NSR and identifies the knowledge gaps with respect to environmental risk assessment of accidental oil spill.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Management of Patients with Methomyl Poisoning – A Case Report

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (C) ◽  
pp. 76-81
Author(s):  
Leonardo Pennisi ◽  
Anna Lepore ◽  
Luigi Santacroce ◽  
Roberto Gagliano-Candela ◽  
Ioannis Alexandros Charitos
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Competent Authority ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Poison Centre ◽  
Increase Product Quality ◽  
Flow Of Information ◽  
Product Quality Improvement

The Apulian Poison Centre (PC) of Foggia, Italy, annually manages numerous consultations concerning certain or suspected poisonings from pesticides, starting at the same time a careful activity related to the risk assessment phase. The management of the exposure to pesticides and to other chemicals, and the alerting of the “National center for chemicals, cosmetics and consumer protection” at the Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS), actively contributes to the improvement of products quality and safety. Thus, leading to a reduction in the number of intoxications - and therefore of the accesses to the emergency services - allows greater protection for workers, bystanders, residents and consumers. The reported case of methomyl poisoning has been of fundamental importance both from the medical point of view and for the management of the intoxicated patient, both for the risk assessment actions, and for cooperation with the competent authorities, generating discussion points on the regulations in force between PCs and National Competent Authority. It follows that the feedback of intoxication in an emergency can lead to improvements in the management and risk mitigation measures in order to reach a greater protection of human, animal, and environmental health. In addition, the regulatory feedback deriving from these reports is an input to the increase product quality improvement (mixtures, labels, packaging, and risk communication) leading to a greater protection of potential exposed subjects. The importance of creating an information and management network that allows the optimization of the flow of information deriving from PCs arises. The actions taken are therefore described, both relating to the management of the emergency, and relating to the subsequent information flow and to the measures for containing the consequent risks.

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