scholarly journals Role of Wild Boar in the Spread of Classical Swine Fever in Japan

Pathogens ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ito ◽  
Jurado ◽  
Bosch ◽  
Ito ◽  
Sánchez-Vizcaíno ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wild Boar ◽  
Spatial Association ◽  
Classical Swine Fever ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Domestic Pig ◽  
Potential Contact ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Gifu Prefecture

Since September 2018, nearly 900 notifications of classical swine fever (CSF) have been reported in Gifu Prefecture (Japan) affecting domestic pig and wild boar by the end of August 2019. To determine the epidemiological characteristics of its spread, a spatio-temporal analysis was performed using actual field data on the current epidemic. The spatial study, based on standard deviational ellipses of official CSF notifications, showed that the disease likely spread to the northeast part of the prefecture. A maximum significant spatial association estimated between CSF notifications was 23 km by the multi-distance spatial cluster analysis. A space-time permutation analysis identified two significant clusters with an approximate radius of 12 and 20 km and 124 and 98 days of duration, respectively. When the area of the identified clusters was overlaid on a map of habitat quality, approximately 82% and 75% of CSF notifications, respectively, were found in areas with potential contact between pigs and wild boar. The obtained results provide information on the current CSF epidemic, which is mainly driven by wild boar cases with sporadic outbreaks on domestic pig farms. These findings will help implement control measures in Gifu Prefecture.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis of bacillary dysentery in Sichuan province, China, 2011-2019

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Zhang ◽  
Mengyuan Zhang ◽  
Dianju Kang ◽  
Wei Sun ◽  
Changhong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Bacillary Dysentery ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Health Resources ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Secondary Cluster ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background: Bacillary dysentery (BD) is a common infectious disease in China and causesenormous economic burdens. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiological characteristics of BD and to identify its possible hot spots and potentially high-risk areas in Sichuan province of China.Methods: The data of BD in Sichuan during 2011-2019 were derived from the China National Disease Surveillance Reporting and Management System. Spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal cluster analysis were used to explore the spatial temporal patterns.Results: The annual incidence of BD ranged between 16.13/10 million and 6.17/10 million from 2011 to 2019 in Sichuan. The majority of the cases were children aged 5 years or younger. Regarding temporal analysis, BD showed significant seasonality and mainly concentrated from May to October. Regarding spatial distribution, the epidemics were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southwest of Sichuan. After 2016, the scope of BD significantly narrowed and severe epidemic areas were relatively stable. The spatial autocorrelation analysis showed a high global autocorrelation at the county level.,and the high-high clusters mainly distributed in the northwest and southwest of Sichuan. he spatiotemporal clusters of BD occurred every year from 2011 to 2019. The most likely cluster areas ranged largely, at the beginning, it mainly distributed in the southwest and northwest of Sichuan, and then gradually concentrated in the southwest. The secondary cluster mainly concentrated in the northwest and its surrounding areas. Moreover, the 2nd secondary cluster was relatively small and mainly distributed in the central area. No clusters were noted in eastern Sichuan.Conclusions: Based on our current analysis, BD is still a common challenge in Sichuan, especially for counties in the southwest and northwest in summer and autumn. More disease prevention and control measures should be taken in such higher-risk susceptible areas at a certain time to achieve rational allocation of public health resources, and finally reduce the spread of BD.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal analysis of bacillary dysentery in Sichuan province, China, 2011–2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yao Zhang ◽  
Mengyuan Zhang ◽  
Dianju Kang ◽  
Wei Sun ◽  
Changhong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Bacillary Dysentery ◽  
Central Area ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Sichuan Province ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Secondary Cluster ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics

Abstract Background Bacillary dysentery (BD) is a common infectious disease in China and causes enormous economic burdens. The purpose of this study was to describe the epidemiological characteristics of BD and to identify its possible hot spots and potentially high-risk areas in Sichuan province of China. Methods In this study, we collected monthly BD incidence reports of 181 counties in Sichuan province, China, from January 2011 to December 2019. Descriptive statistics were used to evaluate the epidemic characteristics of BD. Moran’s I index was applied to investigate the yearly patterns of the spatial distribution. And spatio-temporal scanning statistics with the spatial unit set as county and the temporal unit set as month were used to investigate the possible high-risk region. Meanwhile, the circular moving windows were also employed in the spatio-temporal scanning to scan the study areas. Results The annual incidence of BD ranged between 16.13/100,000 and 6.17/100,000 person-years from 2011 to 2019 in Sichuan. The majority of the cases were children aged 5 years or younger. For the descriptive statistics, a peak from May to October was observed in temporal analysis, the epidemics were mainly concentrated in the northwest and southwest of Sichuan in spatial analysis. After 2016, the scope of BD significantly narrowed and severe epidemic areas were relatively stable. For the spatial autocorrelation analysis, a high global autocorrelation was observed at the county level, and the high–high clusters mainly distributed in the northwest and southwest of Sichuan. For the spatio-temporal scanning, the spatiotemporal clusters of BD occurred every year from 2011 to 2019. The most likely cluster areas mainly distributed in the southwest and northwest of Sichuan at the beginning, and then gradually concentrated in the southwest. The secondary cluster mainly concentrated in the northwest and its surrounding areas. Moreover, the 2nd secondary cluster was relatively small and mainly distributed in the central area. No clusters were noted in eastern Sichuan. Conclusions Based on our current analysis, BD is still a common challenge in Sichuan, especially for counties in the southwest and northwest in summer and autumn. More disease prevention and control measures should be taken in such higher-risk susceptible areas at a certain time to allocate the public health resources rationally, and finally reduce the spread of BD.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the Spread of ASF in the Russian Federation in 2017-2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 70 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-206
Author(s):  
Blokhin Andrey ◽  
Toropova Nadezhda ◽  
Burova Olga ◽  
Sevskikh Timofey ◽  
Gogin Andrey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wild Boar ◽  
Hot Spots ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Far East ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Patterns ◽  
Domestic Pig ◽  
Domestic Pigs ◽  
Spatio Temporal

AbstractCurrently, African swine fever (ASF) is one of the biggest global economic challenges in Europe and Asia. Despite all the efforts done to understand the mechanism of spread, presence and maintenance of ASF in domestic pigs and wild boar, there are still many gaps in the knowledge on its epidemiology.This study aims to describe spatial and temporal patterns of ASF spread in wild boar and domestic pigs in the country during the last three years. Methods of Spatio-temporal scanning statistics of Kulldorff (SatScan) and Mann-Kendell statistics (space-time cube) were used to identify potential clusters of outbreaks and the presence of hot spots (areas of active flare clusters), respectively. The results showed that ASF in the country has a local epidemic pattern of spread (11 explicit clusters in wild boar and 16 epizootic clusters were detected in the domestic pig population: 11 in the European part and 5 in the Asian part), and only six of them are overlapped suggesting that ASF epidemics in domestic pigs and wild boar are two separate processes. In the Nizhny Novgorod, Vladimir, Ivanovo, Novgorod, Pskov, Leningrad regions, the clusters identified are characterized as sporadic epidemics clusters, while in the Ulyanovsk region, Primorsky Territory, and the Jewish Autonomous Region the clusters are consistent. Considering the low biosecurity level of pig holdings in the far east and its close economic and cultural connections with China as well as other potential risk factors, it can be expected that the epidemic will be present in the region for a long time. The disease has spread in the country since 2007, and now it is reoccurring in some of the previously affected regions. Outbreaks in the domestic pig sector can be localized easily (no pattern detected), while the presence of the virus in wildlife (several consecutive hot spots detected) hampers its complete eradication. Although the disease has different patterns of spread over the country its driving forces remain the same (human-mediated spread and wild boar domestic-pigs mutual spillover). The results indicate that despite all efforts taken since 2007, the policy of eradication of the disease needs to be reviewed, especially measures in wildlife.

scholarly journals Efficacy of Oral Vaccine against Classical Swine Fever in Wild Boar and Estimation of the Disease Dynamics in the Quantitative Approach

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 319
Author(s):  
Enkhbold Bazarragchaa ◽  
Norikazu Isoda ◽  
Taksoo Kim ◽  
Madoka Tetsuo ◽  
Satoshi Ito ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wild Boar ◽  
Oral Vaccine ◽  
Classical Swine Fever ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Wild Boar Population ◽  
Oral Vaccination ◽  
Wild Boars ◽  
In The Wild ◽  
High Virus ◽  
Gifu Prefecture

Classical swine fever virus (CSFV) in the wild boar population has been spreading in Japan, alongside outbreaks on pigs, since classical swine fever (CSF) reemerged in September 2018. The vaccination using oral bait vaccine was initially implemented in Gifu prefecture in March 2019. In the present study, antibodies against CSFV in wild boar were assessed in 1443 captured and dead wild boars in Gifu prefecture. After the implementation of oral vaccination, the increase of the proportion of seropositive animals and their titer in wild boars were confirmed. Quantitative analysis of antigen and antibodies against CSFV in wild boar implies potential disease diversity in the wild boar population. Animals with status in high virus replication (Ct < 30) and non- or low-immune response were confirmed and were sustained at a certain level after initial oral vaccination. Through continuous vaccination periods, the increase of seroprevalence among wild boar and the decrease of CSFV-positive animals were observed. The epidemiological analysis based on the quantitative virological outcomes could provide more information on the efficacy of oral vaccination and dynamics of CSF in the wild boar population, which will help to improve the implementation of control measures for CSF in countries such as Japan and neighboring countries.

scholarly journals The First Lumpy Skin Disease Outbreak in Thailand (2021): Epidemiological Features and Spatio-Temporal Analysis

2022 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Orapun Arjkumpa ◽  
Minta Suwannaboon ◽  
Manoch Boonrod ◽  
Issara Punyawan ◽  
Supawadee Liangchaisiri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Skin Disease ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
Lumpy Skin Disease ◽  
Epidemiological Features ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Cattle Farms

The first outbreak of lumpy skin disease (LSD) in Thailand was reported in March 2021, but information on the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreak is very limited. The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemiological features of LSD outbreaks and to identify the outbreak spatio-temporal clusters. The LSD-affected farms located in Roi Et province were investigated by veterinary authorities under the outbreak response program. A designed questionnaire was used to obtain the data. Space-time permutation (STP) and Poisson space-time (Poisson ST) models were used to detect areas of high LSD incidence. The authorities identified 293 LSD outbreak farms located in four different districts during the period of March and the first week of April 2021. The overall morbidity and mortality of the affected cattle were 40.5 and 1.2%, respectively. The STP defined seven statistically significant clusters whereas only one cluster was identified by the Poisson ST model. Most of the clusters (n = 6) from the STP had a radius &lt;7 km, and the number of LSD cases in those clusters varied in range of 3–51. On the other hand, the most likely cluster from the Poisson ST included LSD cases (n = 361) from 198 cattle farms with a radius of 17.07 km. This is the first report to provide an epidemiological overview and determine spatio-temporal clusters of the first LSD outbreak in cattle farms in Thailand. The findings from this study may serve as a baseline information for future epidemiological studies and support authorities to establish effective control programs for LSD in Thailand.

scholarly journals African Swine Fever spread across Asia, 2018---2019

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Ward ◽  
Ellen Mighell
Keyword(s):  
African Swine Fever Virus ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The South ◽  
Start Date ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatio Temporal

African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) is a highly contagious pathogen causing disease in pigs, commonly characterised by acute haemorrhagic fever. Prior to August 2018, African Swine Fever (ASF) had not been reported in Asia, but has since spread throughout China, Mongolia, Korea, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Timor-Leste and Papua New Guinea. Using data collated from reports of confirmed cases, we applied spatio-temporal analysis to describe ASFV spread throughout Asia, from 1 August 2018 (reported start date) to 31 December 2019. Analysis revealed a propagating epidemic of ASFV throughout Asia, with peaks corresponding to increased reports from China, Vietnam and Laos. Two clusters of reported outbreaks were found. During the epidemic, ASFV primarily spread from the North-East to the South-East: a larger, secondary cluster in the North-East represented earlier reports, whilst the smaller, primary cluster in the South-East was characterised by later reports. Significant differences in country-specific epidemics, morbidity, mortality and unit types were discovered, likely attributable to differences in prevention, surveillance and control measures. The initial number of outbreaks and enterprise size are likely predictors of the speed of spread and the effectiveness of ASFV stamping out procedures. Biosecurity methods, wild boar populations and the transportation of pigs and movement of infected fomites are discussed as likely risk factors for facilitating ASFV spread across Asia.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Classical Swine Fever Spread in Wild Boar in 2018–2019, Japan

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 119 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norikazu Isoda ◽  
Kairi Baba ◽  
Satoshi Ito ◽  
Mitsugi Ito ◽  
Yoshihiro Sakoda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wild Boar ◽  
Euclidean Distance ◽  
Classical Swine Fever ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Epidemiological Analysis ◽  
Period Prevalence ◽  
Positive Rate ◽  
In The Wild ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analyses

The prolongation of the classic swine fever (CSF) outbreak in Japan in 2018 was highly associated with the persistence and widespread of the CSF virus (CSFV) in the wild boar population. To investigate the dynamics of the CSF outbreak in wild boar, spatiotemporal analyses were performed. The positive rate of CSFV in wild boar fluctuated dramatically from March to June 2019, but finally stabilized at approximately 10%. The Euclidean distance from the initial CSF notified farm to the farthest infected wild boar of the day constantly increased over time since the initial outbreak except in the cases reported from Gunma and Saitama prefectures. The two-month-period prevalence, estimated using integrated nested Laplace approximation, reached >80% in half of the infected areas in March–April 2019. The area affected continued to expand despite the period prevalence decreasing up to October 2019. A large difference in the shapes of standard deviational ellipses and in the location of their centroids when including or excluding cases in Gunma and Saitama prefectures indicates that infections there were unlikely to have been caused simply by wild boar activities, and anthropogenic factors were likely involved. The emergence of concurrent space–time clusters in these areas after July 2019 indicated that CSF outbreaks were scattered by this point in time. The results of this epidemiological analysis help explain the dynamics of the spread of CSF and will aid in the implementation of control measures, including bait vaccination.

scholarly journals Epidemiological characteristics and spatial−temporal analysis of COVID-19 in Shandong Province, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Qi ◽  
Y. C. Zhu ◽  
C. Y. Li ◽  
Y. C. Hu ◽  
L. L. Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Shandong Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Public Health Agencies ◽  
Health Agencies ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control ◽  
Epidemiological Characteristics ◽  
Spatial Temporal Analysis

Abstract The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed serious challenges. It is vitally important to further clarify the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak for future study and prevention and control measures. Epidemiological characteristics and spatial−temporal analysis were performed based on COVID-19 cases from 21 January 2020 to 1 March 2020 in Shandong Province, and close contacts were traced to construct transmission chains. A total of 758 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported in Shandong. The sex ratio was 1.27: 1 (M: F) and the median age was 42 (interquartile range: 32–55). The high-risk clusters were identified in the central, eastern and southern regions of Shandong from 25 January 2020 to 10 February 2020. We rebuilt 54 transmission chains involving 209 cases, of which 52.2% were family clusters, and three widespread infection chains were elaborated, occurring in Jining, Zaozhuang and Liaocheng, respectively. The geographical and temporal disparity may alert public health agencies to implement specific measures in regions with different risk, and should attach importance on how to avoid household and community transmission.

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