The Modeling of the Capacity of the Moroccan Healthcare System in the Context of COVID-19

2022 ◽  
pp. 17-26
Author(s):  
Mohamed Merzouki ◽  
Mostafa Bentahir ◽  
Fatiha Chigr ◽  
Mohamed Najimi ◽  
Jean-Luc Gala
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Exponential Phase ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Si Model ◽  
Total Capacity ◽  
Health Complications ◽  
Over Time

The outbreak of SARS-Cov2 in China and its subsequent spread has caused a global pandemic. The authors conducted a simple susceptible-infected (SI) model of the spread of COVID-19 in Moroccan population. The model is based on combining the average contact rate (µmax) extracted from the early exponential phase of the outbreak with a logistic simulation over time. Interestingly, this modeling approach showed a perfect fit with a strong correlation between real confirmed and estimated cases when calibrated on the Chinese declining outbreak. Subsequently, the model was applied for studying the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak in Morocco to determine the needed time for reaching 10,000 confirmed cases whose 15% (1,500) are at risk of developing health complications requiring patient care in hospitals. The latter total capacity does not exceed 1,640 beds according to the authorities. Incorporating these parameters in the logistic model, they predicted that the Moroccan healthcare system will be at 27%, 50%, 76%, and 90% of saturation on April 11, 16, 23, and May 4, 2020, respectively.

scholarly journals Encountering suicide in primary healthcare rehabilitation: the experiences of physiotherapists

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Åse Lundin ◽  
Anna Bergenheim
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Primary Healthcare ◽  
Qualitative Content Analysis ◽  
Western Hemisphere ◽  
Mental Wellbeing ◽  
Healthcare Personnel ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Patients At Risk

Abstract Background Suicide is a serious public health issue and one of the most common causes of death globally. Suicide has long-lasting impact on personal, relational, community and societal levels. Research has shown that patients often seek help in the primary healthcare system preceding a suicide. Studies exploring the experiences of encountering patients at risk for suicide have been performed among various categories of healthcare personnel, such as nurses and psychiatry residents as well as emergency room staff. There is a lack of research regarding primary healthcare rehabilitation staff, despite the fact that physiotherapists are the third largest health profession in the Western hemisphere and often work with patients experiencing mental health symptoms. The aim of this study was to explore the experiences of encountering patients at risk for suicide among physiotherapists working in a primary healthcare rehabilitation setting. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 13 physiotherapists working in primary healthcare rehabilitation clinics in the Gothenburg area, Sweden. The interviews were recorded on audio and transcribed into written text. A qualitative content analysis was performed on the material collected. Results The analysis of the material revealed an overarching theme, Through barriers and taboos – the physiotherapist finds a way, with five main categories: possibilities for identification, obstacles in meeting suicide, workplace environment matters, where does the patient belong? and education and experience are keys. Conclusions The present study indicates that physiotherapists in the primary healthcare system encounter patients experiencing suicidality, and they expressed a strong desire to care for both the physical and mental wellbeing of the patients. Despite reporting many barriers, the physiotherapists often found a way to form a meaningful therapeutic alliance with the patient and to ask about possible suicidality in their clinical practice. The result suggests that physiotherapists could play a larger role in working with patients experiencing suicidality in a primary healthcare setting and that they could be viewed as possible gatekeepers in identification as well as referral of these patients into other parts of the healthcare system.

scholarly journals Complex Regional Pain Syndrome: Current Practice Management and Referral Trends in a Closed Healthcare System

Osteology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-47
Author(s):  
Connor Zale ◽  
Joshua Hansen ◽  
Paul Ryan
Keyword(s):  
Pain Management ◽  
Pain Score ◽  
Complex Regional Pain Syndrome ◽  
Healthcare System ◽  
Pain Syndrome ◽  
Occupational Outcomes ◽  
Mean Delay ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Over Time

Background: Complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS) is a neurologic condition that can present with severe pain and dysfunction. Delay in treatment adversely affects outcomes. The purpose of this study is to evaluate patient outcomes as they relate to the time from diagnosis to pain management referral once the diagnosis of CRPS has been made in a closed healthcare system. Methods: A retrospective record review from a closed healthcare system was utilized for CRPS cases from 2010–2019. Demographics, injury pattern, surgeries, pain score, treatment modalities, occupational outcomes, and time to pain management referral were recorded. Results: There were 26 cases of CRPS that met inclusion criteria. The mean time from diagnosis to treatment was 55 days. 16/26 (61.5%) were medically discharged from the military. 23/26 (88.5%) were unable to return to full duty due to CRPS. There was no significant difference in the reported pain scores over time regardless of treatment (p = 0.76). A linear regression demonstrated a significantly higher Visual Analog Scale Pain Score (VAS) over time in patients that were medically discharged (p = 0.022). Conclusions: The mean delay in referral to the pain service was 55 days. The majority of patients (88.5%) did not return to full duty secondary to the diagnosis of CRPS, and 61.5% of patients required medical separation from active duty. Due to the negative impact that the diagnosis of CRPS has on occupational outcomes with a mean delay in referral of 55 days, clinics and providers should set up referral criteria and establish early pain pathways for patients diagnosed with CRPS.

Yet Another Expert Opinion on Bilirubin Toxicity!

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1992 ◽  
Vol 89 (5) ◽  
pp. 829-831
Author(s):  
LOIS JOHNSON
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Expert Opinion ◽  
Term Newborn ◽  
New Guidelines ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Bilirubin Toxicity ◽  
Toxic Potential ◽  
Over Time

Drs Newman and Maisels1 have provided valuable new guidelines for management of jaundice in the term newborn which take into account age at discharge from the hospital and some of the factors altering the general risk of bilirubin toxicity. They note that much of the information needed to identify the individual at risk is still unavailable and remind their readers that their "recommendations should be reevaluated periodically as new data become available." I have serious concerns, however, with the second half of their paper which almost completely downplays the toxic potential of bilirubin, its often erratic expression, and its ability to cause a spectrum of damage ranging from frank kernicterus to insults that are so minor as to be compensated for completely over time.2-4

Impacts of Social Distancing on Pedestrian Behavior and Risk Perception

2021 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 1302-1306
Author(s):  
Kyra B. Phillips ◽  
Kelly N. Byrne ◽  
Branden S. Kolarik ◽  
Audra K. Krake ◽  
Young C. Bui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Risk Perception ◽  
Perceived Risk ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Survey Study ◽  
Pedestrian Behavior ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Over Time

Since COVID-19 transmission accelerated in the United States in March 2020, guidelines have recommended that individuals wear masks and limit close contact by remaining at least six feet away from others, even while outdoors. Such behavior is important to help slow the spread of the global pandemic; however, it may require pedestrians to make critical decisions about entering a roadway in order to avoid others, potentially creating hazardous situations for both themselves and for drivers. In this survey study, we found that while overall patterns of self-reported pedestrian activity remained largely consistent over time, participants indicated increased willingness to enter active roadways when encountering unmasked pedestrians since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Participants also rated the risks of encountering unmasked pedestrians as greater than those associated with entering a street, though the perceived risk of passing an unmasked pedestrian on the sidewalk decreased over time.

scholarly journals Bahamas National Implementation Project: Proposal for Sustainability of an Evidence-based HIV Prevention Intervention in a School Setting

10.2196/14816 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. e14816
Author(s):  
Bo Wang ◽  
Lynette Deveaux ◽  
Sonja Lunn ◽  
Veronica Dinaj-Koci ◽  
Samiran Ghosh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Hiv Prevention ◽  
Primary Schools ◽  
Implementation Strategies ◽  
Implementation Fidelity ◽  
Prevention Programs ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
School Based ◽  
National Implementation ◽  
Over Time

Background Sustained implementation of school-based prevention programs is low. Effective strategies are needed to enhance both high-level implementation fidelity and sustainability of prevention programs. Objective This proposed study aims to determine if the provision of either biweekly monitoring and feedback and site-based assistance and mentorship or both to at-risk and moderate-performing teachers with monitoring through an enhanced decision-making platform by the Ministry of Education (MOE) and Ministry of Health (MOH) based on the real-time implementation data will increase national implementation fidelity and result in sustained implementation over time. Methods This study will target government schools including 200 grade 6 teachers in 80 primary schools and 100 junior/middle high school teachers (and their classes) on 12 Bahamian islands. Teacher and school coordinator training will be conducted by the MOE in year 1, followed by an optimization trial among teachers in the capital island. Informed by these results, an implementation intervention will be conducted to train using different levels of educational intensity all at-risk and moderate-performing teachers. Subsequently selected training and implementation strategies will be evaluated for the national implementation of Focus on Youth in the Caribbean and Caribbean Informed Parents and Children Together in years 2 to 5. Results It is hypothesized that a more intensive training and supervision program for at-risk and moderate-performing teachers will enhance their implementation fidelity to the average level of the high-performing group (85%), an HIV prevention program delivered at the national level can be implemented with fidelity in grade 6 and sustained over time (monitored annually), and student outcomes will continue to be highly correlated with implementation fidelity and be sustained over time (assessed annually through grade 9). The proposed study is funded by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development from August 1, 2018, through May 31, 2023. Conclusions The study will explore several theory-driven implementation strategies to increase sustained teacher implementation fidelity and thereby increase the general public health impact of evidence-based interventions. The proposed project has potential to make significant contributions to advancing school-based HIV prevention research and implementation science and serve as a global model for the Fast Track strategy. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) PRR1-10.2196/14816

scholarly journals The correlation strength of the most important cryptocurrencies in the bull and bear market

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 67-81
Author(s):  
Sebastian Lahajnar ◽  
Alenka Rožanec
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Strong Correlation ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Pearson Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Strongly Correlated ◽  
Moderate Correlation ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Correlation Strength ◽  
Over Time

The article explores the correlation strength of the ten most important cryptocurrencies, emphasizing the examination of differences during the periods of rising and falling prices. The daily and weekly returns of selected cryptocurrencies are taken as the basis for calculating and determining the correlation strength using the Pearson correlation coefficient. The survey covers the period from the beginning of 2017 to Bitcoin’s last local bottom in mid-March 2020. Research findings are as follows: 1) the most important cryptocurrencies are mostly moderately positively correlated with each other over time; 2) correlation strength decreases slightly during the bull period, but mostly remain in the range of moderate correlation; 3) correlation strength increases significantly during the bear period, with most cryptocurrencies strongly correlated with each other. The results do not change significantly if the daily or weekly cryptocurrency returns are used as the basis. A strong correlation in the period of falling prices prevents the effective diversification of the cryptocurrency portfolio, which must be considered when investing funds in the cryptocurrency market.

scholarly journals The ‘Icarus effect’ of preventative health behaviors

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Carrignon ◽  
R. Alexander Bentley ◽  
Matthew Silk ◽  
Nina H. Fefferman
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Policy ◽  
Social Learning ◽  
Public Health Policy ◽  
Disease Risk ◽  
Critical Importance ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Preventative Health ◽  
Individual Observation ◽  
Over Time

1AbstractOngoing efforts to combat the global pandemic of COVID-19 via public health policy have revealed the critical importance of understanding how individuals understand and react to infection risks. We here present a model to explore how both individual observation and social learning are likely to shape behavioral, and therefore epidemiological, dynamics over time. Efforts to delay and reduce infections can compromise their own success, especially in populations with age-structure in both disease risk and social learning —two critical features of the current COVID-19 crisis. Our results concur with anecdotal observations of age-based differences in reactions to public health recommendations. We show how shifting reliance on types of learning affect the course of an outbreak, and could therefore factor into policy-based interventions.

scholarly journals Collision with power lines and electrocutions in birds — an analysis based on Swedish ringing recoveries 1990–2017

Ornis Svecica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Thord Fransson ◽  
Lina Jansson ◽  
Tuomo Kolehmainen ◽  
Thomas Wenninger
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Natural History ◽  
Power Line ◽  
Power Lines ◽  
Local Power ◽  
Line System ◽  
Underground Cables ◽  
Number Of Species ◽  
History Information ◽  
Over Time

Recoveries of birds ringed in Sweden from the period 1990–2017 were used to analyse the occurrence of collisions with power lines and electrocutions. Out of more than 10,000 recoveries of birds found dead with finding circumstances mentioned, 8.6% was associated with power line constructions. The number of species involved was 51 and high proportions were especially evident in some species of owls and raptors. The overall proportion of recoveries caused by collision / electrocution shows a significant decrease over time. A decrease over time in the proportions of electrocution and collision was also evident when analysing finding circumstances in four species where corpses were sent to the Swedish Museum of Natural History. Information about the power line system in Sweden during the period 2007–2016 shows that the length of local power lines has decreased with about 21% during a ten-year period and that underground cables have increased with 28% during the same period. The results show that collisions with power lines have decreased more than electrocutions and this may imply that there are still many places where birds are at risk of being electrocuted.

Stress Reduction in Child-Abusing Families: Global and Specific Measures

1994 ◽  
Vol 75 (1) ◽  
pp. 287-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keith Barton ◽  
Christopher Scott Baglio ◽  
Marc T. Braverman
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Stress Reduction ◽  
Home Treatment ◽  
Stress Factors ◽  
Home Therapy ◽  
Total Stress ◽  
Therapy Program ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Over Time ◽  
County Services

This study compared in-home treatment to traditional county services for their ability to reduce stress in child-abusing families. 47 families who were at risk for having at least one child removed from the home for child abuse were referred to Families First for an intensive 6-wk., in-home therapy program. A comparison group of 29 families who were also at risk for having at least one child removed for abuse received traditional county services but no in-home therapy. Stress scores used were derived from a factor analysis of the Family Inventory of Life Events and Changes (FILE) that had identified 10 stress factors. The stress data were analyzed by a series of 2 × 2 analyses of variance, group and time being the independent variables and the stress factors the dependent variables. Total stress was significantly reduced over time for both groups, and several specific stress factors were also significantly reduced over time. In secondary analyses, 2 × 3 (group by time) analyses identified interactions for total stress and three of the individual stress factors. In-home treatment was effective in reducing stress, but traditional services were also effective. Some possible explanations were discussed. A major finding was that, by including analyses using the specific stress factors (rather than just the Total Stress score), a much richer understanding of the role stress plays in abusive families is provided. It was concluded that, although global stress may be reduced by different methods, some specific types of stress are more likely to be reduced than others.

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