Dynamical and Thermodynamic Changes in the Historical Response of Atlantic Sector Rainfall to Anthropogenic Emissions in the IPSL-5A Model.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudine Wenhaji Ndomeni ◽  
Alessandra Giannini
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Sulfate Aerosol ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Easterly Wind ◽  
Negative Change ◽  
Equatorial Upwelling ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
The Impact

<p>CMIP5 models, including IPSL-5A, developed at the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, largely reproduce the observed post-World War II decline in Sahel precipitation. We use all- and single-forcing historical simulations performed with IPSL-5A to better understand the impact of emissions of aerosols and greenhouse gases in Sahel drought. Specifically, we analyze the moisture budget to assess the two main processes, namely stabilization and moisture supply, that are hypothesized to shape moisture convergence and precipitation in the Atlantic sector.</p><p>1) The net change has the sign of the expected thermodynamic change: an increase in precipitation in GHG-induced warming, and a decrease in aerosol-induced cooling. Thermodynamic change is opposed by dynamical change.</p><p>The rainfall change in GHG-induced warming, in the Sahel as well as across all other regions of climatological precipitation, including the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), is positive and largely dominated by the change in the thermodynamic term associated with convergence, meaning that the change is consistent with an increase in moisture that assumes no change in the atmospheric circulation: as the ocean warms, it supplies more moisture to the monsoon.</p><p>This wetting thermodynamic term associated with convergence is opposed by drying associated with the corresponding dynamical term, which is especially strong at the margins, and signifies a weakened mass flux, or slow-down of the overturning circulation. This negative change in mass convergence is symptomatic of stabilization in a warmer world.</p><p>The effect of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling is equal and opposite to that of GHG-induced warming.</p><p>2) The ITCZ response is complicated by the dynamical ocean feedback associated with changes in the meridional gradient in sea surface temperature. GHG-induced warming leads not only to an increase in precipitation, but also to a poleward shift of the ITCZ. This poleward shift is accompanied by (south) westerly wind anomalies, which drive an off-equatorial cooling Ekman flow equatorward of the ITCZ. These same westerly anomalies induce a weakening of equatorial upwelling, and warming of the eastern equatorial Atlantic cold tongue.</p><p>Here, too, the effect of sulfate aerosol-induced cooling is equal and opposite to that of GHG-induced warming. An equatorward shift of the ITCZ is accompanied by (north) easterly wind anomalies, which drive off-equatorial warming, and equatorial cooling.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Regional Atmospheric Cloud Radiative Changes on Shifts of the Extratropical Jet Stream in Response to Global Warming

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (23) ◽  
pp. 8399-8421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aiko Voigt ◽  
Tiffany A. Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Jet Streams ◽  
Diabatic Processes ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Poleward Shift ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Climate models robustly project that global warming will lead to a poleward shift of the annual-mean zonal-mean extratropical jet streams. The magnitude of such shifts remains uncertain, however, and recent work has indicated a potentially important role of cloud radiative interactions. The model spread found in realistic simulations with interactive sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is captured in aquaplanet simulations with prescribed SSTs, because of which the latter setup is adapted here to study the impact of regional atmospheric cloud radiative changes on the jet position. Simulations with two CMIP5 models and prescribed regional cloud changes show that the rise of tropical high-level clouds and the upward and poleward movement of midlatitude high-level clouds lead to poleward jet shifts. High-latitude low-level cloud changes shift the jet poleward in one model but not in the other. The impact of clouds on the jet operates via the atmospheric radiative forcing that is created by the cloud changes and is qualitatively reproduced in a dry model, although the latter is too sensitive because of its simplified treatment of diabatic processes. The 10-model CMIP5 aquaplanet ensemble of global warming exhibits correlations between jet shifts, regional temperature changes, and regional cloud changes that are consistent with the prescribed cloud simulations. This provides evidence that the atmospheric radiative forcing from tropical and midlatitude high-level cloud changes contributes to model uncertainty in future jet shifts, in addition to the surface radiative forcing from extratropical cloud changes highlighted by previous studies.

The Film World’s Cooperative Store: Institutions and Films of the 1930s and 1940s

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Claire Thomson
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Meat Products ◽  
Public Information ◽  
Early History ◽  
World War ◽  
International Context ◽  
German Occupation ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

This chapter traces the early history of state-sponsored informational filmmaking in Denmark, emphasising its organisation as a ‘cooperative’ of organisations and government agencies. After an account of the establishment and early development of the agency Dansk Kulturfilm in the 1930s, the chapter considers two of its earliest productions, both process films documenting the manufacture of bricks and meat products. The broader context of documentary in Denmark is fleshed out with an account of the production and reception of Poul Henningsen’s seminal film Danmark (1935), and the international context is accounted for with an overview of the development of state-supported filmmaking in the UK, Italy and Germany. Developments in the funding and output of Dansk Kulturfilm up to World War II are outlined, followed by an account of the impact of the German Occupation of Denmark on domestic informational film. The establishment of the Danish Government Film Committee or Ministeriernes Filmudvalg kick-started aprofessionalisation of state-sponsored filmmaking, and two wartime public information films are briefly analysed as examples of its early output. The chapter concludes with an account of the relations between the Danish Resistance and an emerging generation of documentarists.

THE IMPACT OF WORLD WAR II ON COST ACCOUNTING AT THE SPERRY CORPORATION

2003 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 67-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard K. Fleischman ◽  
R. Penny Marquette
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Performance Management ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
World War ◽  
Military Contractors ◽  
Management Techniques ◽  
Cost Awareness ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
The U.S

The impact of World War II on cost accountancy in the U.S. may be viewed as a double-edged sword. Its most positive effect was engendering greater cost awareness, particularly among companies that served as military contractors and, thus, had to make full representation to contracting agencies for reimbursement. On the negative side, the dislocations of war, especially shortages in the factors of production and capacity constraints, meant that such “scientific management” techniques as existed (standard costing, time-study, specific detailing of task routines) fell by the wayside. This paper utilizes the archive of the Sperry Corporation, a leading governmental contractor, to chart the firm's accounting during World War II. It is concluded that any techniques that had developed from Taylorite principles were suspended, while methods similar to contemporary performance management, such as subcontracting, emphasis on the design phase of products, and substantial expenditure on research and development, flourished.

The Roots of Global Health Inequity

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joia S. Mukherjee
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
World War Ii ◽  
Primary Health Care ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
World War ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
Primary Health ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
The Impact

This chapter outlines the historical roots of health inequities. It focuses on the African continent, where life expectancy is the shortest and health systems are weakest. The chapter describes the impoverishment of countries by colonial powers, the development of the global human rights framework in the post-World War II era, the impact of the Cold War on African liberation struggles, and the challenges faced by newly liberated African governments to deliver health care through the public sector. The influence of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund’s neoliberal economic policies is also discussed. The chapter highlights the shift from the aspiration of “health for all” voiced at the Alma Ata Conference on Primary Health Care in 1978, to the more narrowly defined “selective primary health care.” Finally, the chapter explains the challenges inherent in financing health in impoverished countries and how user fees became standard practice.

Incentivizing Peace

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Tir ◽  
Johannes Karreth
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Armed Conflicts ◽  
East Timor ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
The World ◽  
Economic Tools ◽  
The Impact

Civil wars are one of the most pressing problems facing the world. Common approaches such as mediation, intervention, and peacekeeping have produced some results in managing ongoing civil wars, but they fall short in preventing civil wars in the first place. This book argues for considering civil wars from a developmental perspective to identify steps to assure that nascent, low-level armed conflicts do not escalate to full-scale civil wars. We show that highly structured intergovernmental organizations (IGOs, e.g. the World Bank or IMF) are particularly well positioned to engage in civil war prevention. Such organizations have both an enduring self-interest in member-state peace and stability and potent (economic) tools to incentivize peaceful conflict resolution. The book advances the hypothesis that countries that belong to a larger number of highly structured IGOs face a significantly lower risk that emerging low-level armed conflicts on their territories will escalate to full-scale civil wars. Systematic analyses of over 260 low-level armed conflicts that have occurred around the globe since World War II provide consistent and robust support for this hypothesis. The impact of a greater number of memberships in highly structured IGOs is substantial, cutting the risk of escalation by over one-half. Case evidence from Indonesia’s East Timor conflict, Ivory Coast’s post-2010 election crisis, and from the early stages of the conflict in Syria in 2011 provide additional evidence that memberships in highly structured IGOs are indeed key to understanding why some low-level armed conflicts escalate to civil wars and others do not.

Setting the Stage

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fred L. Borch
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Japanese Occupation ◽  
East Indies ◽  
Indonesian Archipelago ◽  
Ethical Policy ◽  
Netherlands East Indies ◽  
History Of ◽  
Colonial Economy ◽  
The Impact

Explores the role of the Dutch in the Indies from 1595, when sailors from Amsterdam first arrived in the islands, to 1942, when the Japanese invaded the colony and inflicted a devastating defeat upon the Dutch. The history of the Dutch in the Indonesian archipelago is critical to understanding the impact of the Japanese occupation after 1942, and the nature of the war crimes committed by the Japanese. This is because the ultimate goal of the Japanese occupiers was to erase all aspects of Dutch culture and influence the islands. The chapter begins with an examination of the early Dutch settlement of the islands, and the development of the colonial economy. It then discusses the so-called “Ethical Policy,” which sought to unify the islands under Dutch rule and implement European ideas about civilization, culture, and prosperity. The chapter looks at the colony’s social structure prior to World War II and closes with a discussion of the colony’s preparations for war with the Japanese in 1942. A short postscript explains what occurred between August 1945, when the Japanese surrendered, and December 1949, when the Netherlands East Indies ceased to exist.

Diverging Paths

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Luyten
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Welfare State ◽  
Social Protection ◽  
National Level ◽  
Gain Control ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
State Development ◽  
Social Reforms ◽  
Welfare State Development ◽  
The Impact

For the Netherlands and Belgium in the twentieth century, occupation is a key concept to understand the impact of the war on welfare state development. The occupation shifted the balance of power between domestic social forces: this was more decisive for welfare state development than the action of the occupier in itself. War and occupation did not result exclusively in more cooperation between social classes: some interest groups saw the war as a window of opportunity to develop strategies resulting in more social conflict. Class cooperation was often part of a political strategy to gain control over social groups or to legitimate social reforms. The world wars changed the scale of organization of social protection, from the local to the national level: after World War II social policy became a mission for the national state. For both countries, war endings had more lasting effects for welfare state development than the occupation itself.

scholarly journals Reply to “Comment on ‘The Impact of Recent Forcing and Ocean Heat Uptake Data on Estimates of Climate Sensitivity’”

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 397-404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Lewis ◽  
Judith Curry
Keyword(s):  
Time Windows ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Temperature Record ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractCowtan and Jacobs assert that the method used by Lewis and Curry in 2018 (LC18) to estimate the climate system’s transient climate response (TCR) from changes between two time windows is less robust—in particular against sea surface temperature bias correction uncertainty—than a method that uses the entire historical record. We demonstrate that TCR estimated using all data from the temperature record is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows, as is the median TCR estimate using all pairs of individual years. We also show that the median TCR estimate from all pairs of decade-plus-length windows is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows and that incorporating window selection uncertainty would make little difference to total uncertainty in TCR estimation. We find that, when differences in the evolution of forcing are accounted for, the relationship over time between warming in CMIP5 models and observations is consistent with the relationship between CMIP5 TCR and LC18’s TCR estimate but fluctuates as a result of multidecadal internal variability and volcanism. We also show that various other matters raised by Cowtan and Jacobs have negligible implications for TCR estimation in LC18.

Has tourism driven house prices in Germany? Time-varying evidence since 1870

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110088
Author(s):  
Sefa Awaworyi Churchill ◽  
John Inekwe ◽  
Kris Ivanovski
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Time Series Modelling ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Tourism Flows ◽  
Non Parametric

Using a historical data set and recent advances in non-parametric time series modelling, we investigate the nexus between tourism flows and house prices in Germany over nearly 150 years. We use time-varying non-parametric techniques given that historical data tend to exhibit abrupt changes and other forms of non-linearities. Our findings show evidence of a time-varying effect of tourism flows on house prices, although with mixed effects. The pre-World War II time-varying estimates of tourism show both positive and negative effects on house prices. While changes in tourism flows contribute to increasing housing prices over the post-1950 period, this is short-lived, and the effect declines until the mid-1990s. However, we find a positive and significant relationship after 2000, where the impact of tourism on house prices becomes more pronounced in recent years.

scholarly journals Diabatic heating governs the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyacinth C. Nnamchi ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Noel S. Keenlyside ◽  
Joakim Kjellsson ◽  
Ingo Richter
Keyword(s):  
Feedback Loop ◽  
Diabatic Heating ◽  
Seasonal Migration ◽  
Equatorial Atlantic ◽  
Bjerknes Feedback ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
Leading Mode ◽  
Atlantic Niño

AbstractThe Atlantic Niño is the leading mode of interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial Atlantic and assumed to be largely governed by coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics described by the Bjerknes-feedback loop. However, the role of the atmospheric diabatic heating, which can be either an indicator of the atmosphere’s response to, or its influence on the SST, is poorly understood. Here, using satellite-era observations from 1982–2015, we show that diabatic heating variability associated with the seasonal migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone controls the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño. The variability in precipitation, a measure of vertically integrated diabatic heating, leads that in SST, whereas the atmospheric response to SST variability is relatively weak. Our findings imply that the oceanic impact on the atmosphere is smaller than previously thought, questioning the relevance of the classical Bjerknes-feedback loop for the Atlantic Niño and limiting climate predictability over the equatorial Atlantic sector.

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