scholarly journals Numerical modelling and computer visualization of the storm surge in and around the Croatan-Albemarle-Pamlico estuary system produced by hurricane Emily of August 1993

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 48 (4) ◽  
pp. 567-578
Author(s):  
LEONARD J. PIETRAFESA ◽  
LIAN XIE ◽  
JOHN MORRISON ◽  
GERALD S. JANOWITZ ◽  
JOSEPH PELISSIER ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Flood Water ◽  
Outer Banks ◽  
Cape Hatteras ◽  
Sound Side

Hurricane Emily unleashed its fury on the Outer Banks of North Carolina on 31 August 1993. Storm surge was a major cause of damage along the Outer Banks. The highest flood water (11-11.5ft) occurred in the Buxton area near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. It was reported that this flood water was from storm surges along the sound side of the barrier islands. An experimental forecast was conducted for this event in real time using Croatan-Albemarle-Pamlico estuary systems (CAPES) storm surge prediction model developed at North Carolina State University (NCSU). It uses as input parameters the projected hurricane track, minimum center pressure, maximum sustained wind speed and radius of maximum wind speed provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The forcing of the model also includes fresh water input from sound system rivers, and of coastal waters intruding into the sound via Ocracoke, Hatteras and Oregon inlets. The predicted maximum surge along the sound side of the Outer Banks was within 85-90% of the post-storm highwater-mark survey data provided by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Albeit, an after the fact simulation using the post-storm analysis of the track of Emily provided by the NHC, the maximum storm surge along the sound side of the Outer Bancks predicted by the model was within 95-98% of the maximum highwater mark data. The location of the predicted maximum surge for both pre and first model runs was near Cape Hatteras, which agreed well with USGS's survey data. We conclude that the CAPES storm surge model is capable of providing accurate storm surge forecasts in and around the CAPES, but such forecasts are sensitive to not only the observed storm size and intensity but in particular, the projected storm track.  

Coastal erosion field trip at the Sea Grant’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Meeting with North Carolina Sea Grant Specialist Spencer Rogers

Shore & Beach ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 50-54
Author(s):  
Amy Williams ◽  
Kathleen Fallon ◽  
Danielle Swallow
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Beach Erosion ◽  
Flood Insurance ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Outer Banks ◽  
Insurance Reform ◽  
Regional Meeting ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Insurance Rates

During Sea Grant’s Mid-Atlantic Regional Meeting at the end of March 2018, a group of coastal scientists took advantage of the location on the Outer Banks of North Carolina to view the recent impacts of multiple nor’easters that had wreaked havoc on the coast (Figure 1). “Nor’easters” is the term used for the extratropical cyclones that form during the months between October and April, typically, when cold, dry continental air meets warmer air from the Atlantic Ocean. These storms intensify as they move northeast along the coast, bringing large storm surges and increased wave energy resulting in flooding and beach erosion. Coastal resiliency and flood insurance rates are critical issues to local communities. The Community Rating System, FEMA flood maps, and the Biggert-Waters Flood Insurance Reform Act of 2012 all play a part in determining the flood insurance rates for homeowners in North Carolina.

scholarly journals Projecting the Effects of Land Subsidence and Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge Flooding in Coastal North Carolina

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Johnston ◽  
Felicio Cassalho ◽  
Tyler Miesse ◽  
Celso Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Relative Rate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
The United States

Abstract Much of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to subside due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to a larger relative rate of SLR regionwide. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to simulate storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Simulations of recent Hurricanes Irene (2011) and Matthew (2016) are performed considering SLR projections and land subsidence estimates for the year 2100. The model is validated against historic water level observations with generally strong agreement (mean R2 0.81, RMSE 10–31 cm). At current rates of subsidence, storm surge susceptible regions increase on the order of 30–40% by 2100 relative to near-present day conditions. Flood water redistribution leaves low-lying areas especially vulnerable, as many of which also experience increased land subsidence. Combined with SLR projections, results project more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Hurricane Irene from ~ 2,000 km2 (2011) to 5,000 km2 (2100, subsidence + 74 cm), and more than a 3-fold increase ~ 1,400 km2 (2016) to 4,900 km2 (2100, subsidence + 74 cm) for Hurricane Matthew. The expected inundation increases have substantial implications for communities and ecosystems located in coastal North Carolina.

scholarly journals Projecting the effects of land subsidence and sea level rise on storm surge flooding in Coastal North Carolina

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy Johnston ◽  
Felicio Cassalho ◽  
Tyler Miesse ◽  
Celso M. Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
The United States ◽  
Substantial Contribution ◽  
Population Distributions

AbstractMuch of the United States Atlantic coastline continues to undergo subsidence due to post glacial settlement and ground water depletion. Combined with eustatic sea level rise (SLR), this contributes to an increased rate of relative SLR. In this work, we utilize the ADvanced CIRCulation model to project storm surges across coastal North Carolina. Recent hurricanes Irene and Matthew are simulated considering SLR and subsidence estimates for 2100. Relative to present day conditions, storm surge susceptible regions increase by 27% (Irene) to 40% (Matthew) due to subsidence. Combined with SLR (+ 74 cm), results suggest more than a doubling of areal flood extent for Irene and more than a three-fold increase for Hurricane Matthew. Considering current regional population distributions, this translates to an increase in at-risk populations of 18% to 61% due to subsidence. Even further, exposed populations are projected to swell relative to Matthew and Irene baseline simulations (8200 and 28,500) by more than 70,000 in all SLR scenarios (79,400 to 133,600). While increases in surge inundation are driven primarily by SLR in the region, there remains a substantial contribution due to vertical land movement. This outlines the importance of exploring spatially variable land movement in surge prediction, independent of SLR.

scholarly journals COASTAL PROCESSES AT OREGON INLET, NORTH CAROLINA

1978 ◽  
Vol 1 (16) ◽  
pp. 73
Author(s):  
James T. Jarrett
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Coastal Processes ◽  
Outer Banks ◽  
The North ◽  
Longshore Sediment Transport ◽  
Functional Aspects ◽  
Cape Hatteras ◽  
Cape Hatteras National Seashore ◽  
The Village

Coastal processes In the vicinity of Oregon Inlet, North Carolina were studied in connection with the design of a dual jetty system for that inlet. Oregon Inlet is the northernmost breach through the "Outer Banks" of North Carolina and is situated approximately 40 miles (64 km) north of Cape Hatteras and 90 miles (145 km) south of the ocean entrance to Chesapeake Bay, see Fig. 1. The improvements planned for this inlet are part of an overall plan of development directed at enhancing the fisheries industry of North Carolina through the provision of a modern fisheries center at the village of Wanchese, located on Roanoke Island, see Fig. 1. The general layout of the proposed jetty system is shown on Fig. 2. Certain aspects of this design will be referred to later in this paper. In addition to their structural and functional aspects, a major part of the design of the jetties concerns the structure-shore interaction and means whereby adverse shore processes will be prevented in operating the project. Obviously, the construction of jetties or any other type of littoral barrier at an inlet would disrupt the normal movement of and processes associated with longshore sediment transport. Therefore, artificial means of moving littoral materials around a stabilized inlet must be employed to assure that the adjacent beaches are maintained in at least the same state existing prior to any navigation related improvements. The need for a reliable sand bypassing method at Oregon Inlet is accentuated by the fact that the inlet is bounded on the north by the Cape Hatteras National Seashore and on the south by the Pea Island Wildlife Refuge, both of which are Federally owned beach areas managed for the purpose of preserving the natural quality of the Outer Banks environment. The design of a sand bypassing system must be based on a knowledge of the existing shore and inlet processes, particularly as they relate to the rate and directional distribution of longshore sediment transport. When the existing conditions are known, it is possible to estimate the sediment transport rates with the structures in place and, thus, predict the amount and direction in which material will have to be bypassed. This paper describes the approach taken to evaluate the existing and future longshore sediment transport in the vicinity of Oregon Inlet and briefly discusses the proposed bypassing system for the stabilized inlet.

Biology and Management of Dogfish Sharks

2009 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
North Carolina ◽  
South Carolina ◽  
Coastal Waters ◽  
Outer Banks ◽  
The North ◽  
Gill Net ◽  
Cape Hatteras ◽  
Long Bay ◽  
Time Of Year ◽  
Separate Population

Abstract.—Little information is available about the coastal distribution of spiny dogfish <em>Squalus acanthias </em>south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and whether these fish are an extension of the population that overwinters in continental shelf waters off the North Carolina Outer Banks north of Cape Hatteras, or a separate population that remains south of Cape Hatteras. A coastal roaming survey was conducted in February and March 1999 from south of Cape Hatteras to the South Carolina state line to estimate the number of dogfish in coastal waters. Fish aggregations were located by sonar, and a commercial-grade sink gill net of seven different mesh sizes was deployed in waters to assess whether the aggregations were dogfish. Six large dogfish aggregations were located in shallow (10–16 m) coastal waters of Raleigh Bay, Onslow Bay, and Long Bay, covering an estimated surface area of about 66,922 ha. Two additional sets marked by sonar were not dogfish aggregations. No dogfish were caught in exploratory deepwater sets (46–55 m). Using a sensitivity analysis, total population size of all aggregations was estimated at 1.102 to 2.223 million individuals or 2.470 to 4.984 million kg. The sex ratio was 27.1:1 females to males. Aggregations were located near the bottom at a temperature range of 10.4°C to 15.7°C. Temperatures varied little vertically through the water column; laterally temperatures varied by less than 1°C for five of six aggregations. The largest aggregation, in Raleigh Bay, was exposed to the greatest spatial variability in temperature (3.6°C across 15,135 ha). This is perhaps a result of its proximity to the Gulf Stream at this time of year. We believe that dogfish south of Cape Hatteras during the winter are a small portion, probably less than 1%, of the U.S. migratory stock.

scholarly journals The Effect of the Surface Wind Field Representation in the Operational Storm Surge Model of the National Hurricane Center

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Talea Mayo ◽  
Ning Lin
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Wind Field ◽  
Wind Profile ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Maximum Wind Speed ◽  
Field Representation ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
National Hurricane Center ◽  
Surface Background

The Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is the operational storm surge model of the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Previous studies have found that the SLOSH model estimates storm surges with an accuracy of ±20%. In this study, through hindcasts of historical storms, we assess the accuracy of the SLOSH model for four coastal regions in the Northeastern United States. We investigate the potential to improve this accuracy through modification of the wind field representation. We modify the surface background wind field, the parametric wind profile, and the maximum wind speed based on empirical, physical, and observational data. We find that on average the SLOSH model underestimates maximum storm surge heights by 22%. The modifications to the surface background wind field and the parametric wind profile have minor impacts; however, the effect of the modification to maximum wind speed is significant—it increases the variance in the SLOSH model estimates of maximum storm surges, but improves its accuracy overall. We recommend that observed values of maximum wind speed be used in SLOSH model simulations when possible.

scholarly journals Impact of Highest Maximum Sustained Wind Speed and Its Duration on Storm Surges and Hydrodynamics Along Krishna-Godavari Coast

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maneesha Sebastian ◽  
Manasa Ranjan Behera
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Wave Setup ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Water Region ◽  
Shelf Region ◽  
Maximum Sustained Wind Speed

Abstract The storm surge and hydrodynamics along the Krishna-Godavari (K-G) basin are examined based on numerical experiments designed from assessing the landfalling cyclones in Bay of Bengal (BoB) over the past 38 years with respect to its highest maximum sustained wind speed and its duration. The model is validated with the observed water levels at the tide gauge stations at Visakhapatnam during Helen (2013) and Hudhud (2014). Effect of gradual and rapid intensification of cyclones on the peak water levels and depth average currents are examined and the vulnerable locations are identified. The duration of intensification of a rapidly intensifying cyclone over the continental shelf contributed to about 10-18 % increase in the peak water levels, whereas for the gradually intensifying cyclone the effect is trivial. The inclusion of the wave-setup increased the peak water levels up to 39% compared to those without wave-setup. In the deep water region, only rapidly intensifying cyclones affected the peak MWEs. Intensification over the continental slope region significantly increases the currents along the shelf region and coast. The effect on peak maximum depth averaged current extends up to 400 km from the landfall location. Thus, it is necessary to consider the effect of various combinations of the highest cyclone intensity and duration of intensification for identifying the worst scenarios for impact assessment of coastal processes and sediment transport. The study is quite useful in improving the storm surge prediction, in preparedness, risk evaluation, and vulnerability assessment of the coastal regions in the present changing climate.

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