A novel tag estimation algorithm named DFSA-MD1 is proposed, and applied to the field of tag identification that aims at decreasing tag collision number in RFID systems. The proposed algorithm regarded the tag identification process of a frame of the dynamic frame slotted ALOHA algorithm (DFSA) as an M/D/1 queuing system. The reader can estimate tag number of next frame from success slots number and collision slot number in current frame and current frame size according to M/D/1 queuing model.The experimental results show that DFSA-MD1 algorithm requires less time consumption and lower complexity for tag identificaiton and achieves the best performance of the DFSA tags identification protocols.