Increased Risk of Extreme Precipitation over an Urban Agglomeration with Future Global Warming

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang-Van Doan ◽  
Fei Chen ◽  
Hiroyuki Kusaka ◽  
Anurag Dipankar ◽  
Ansar Khan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Urban Agglomeration ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Future Global Warming

scholarly journals Volcanic hazard exacerbated by future global warming–driven increase in heavy rainfall.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jamie Farquharson ◽  
Falk Amelung
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Volcanic Hazards ◽  
Volcanic Arcs ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Wide Range

Heavy rainfall drives a range of eruptive and noneruptive volcanic hazards; over the Holocene, the incidence of many such hazards has increased due to rapid climate change. Here we show that extreme heavy rainfall is projected to increase with continued global warming throughout the 21st century in most subaerial volcanic regions, dramatically increasing the potential for rainfall-induced volcanic hazards. This result is based on a comparative analysis of nine general circulation models, and is prevalent across a wide range of spatial scales, from countries and volcanic arcs down to individual volcanic systems. Our results suggest that if global warming continues unchecked, the incidence of primary and secondary rainfall-related volcanic activity—such as dome explosions or flank collapse—will increase at more than 700 volcanoes around the globe. Improved coupling between scientific observations—in particular, of local and regional precipitation—and policy decisions, may go some way towards mitigating the increased risk throughout the next 80 years.

scholarly journals Future changes to high impact weather in the UK

2021 ◽  
Vol 166 (3-4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen M. Hanlon ◽  
Dan Bernie ◽  
Giulia Carigi ◽  
Jason A. Lowe
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Degree Days ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Hot Days ◽  
High Impact Weather ◽  
The Uk

AbstractHigh impact weather events such as extreme temperatures or rainfall can cause significant disruption across the UK affecting sectors such as health, transport, agriculture and energy. In this study we draw on the latest set of UK climate projections, UKCP, to examine metrics relating to high-impact weather over the UK and how these change with different levels of future global warming from 1.5 °C to 4 °C above pre-industrial. The changes to these hazards show increases in the frequency of extremely hot days and nights, with a UK average increase in hot days of between 5 and 39 days per year between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming. Projections indicate an increase in cooling degree days of 134–627% and an increase in growing degree days of 19–60% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming. Extremely hot nights, which are currently rare, are emerging as more common occurrences. The frequency of high daily temperatures and rainfall increase systematically, while the frequency of very cold conditions (based on days where temperatures fall below 0 °C) is shown to decrease by 10 to 49 days per year. A reduction in heating degree days, of 11–32% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming, is projected. Levels of daily rainfall, which currently relate to increased risk of river flooding, are shown to increase across the country, with increases of days with high impact levels of rainfall occurring by 1 to 8 days per year between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming. Average drought severity is projected to increase for 3-, 6-, 12- and 36-month-long droughts. The largest changes in the severity of the 12-month drought are between −3 and +19% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming and for 36-month drought between −2 and +54% between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of warming. The projected future changes in high impact weather from this study will enable the characterization of climate risks and ultimately be able to better inform adaptation planning in different sectors to support the increase in resilience of the UK to future climate variability and change.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variability in Extreme Precipitation in China from Observations and Projections

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1089 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yifeng Peng ◽  
Xiang Zhao ◽  
Donghai Wu ◽  
Bijian Tang ◽  
Peipei Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
The Past ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Extreme precipitation events, which have intensified with global warming over the past several decades, will become more intense in the future according to model projections. Although many studies have been performed, the occurrence patterns for extreme precipitation events in past and future periods in China remain unresolved. Additionally, few studies have explained how extreme precipitation events developed over the past 58 years and how they will evolve in the next 90 years as global warming becomes much more serious. In this paper, we evaluated the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events using indices for the frequency, quantity, intensity, and proportion of extreme precipitation, which were proposed by the World Meteorological Organization. We simultaneously analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in China from 2011 to 2100 using data obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. Despite the fixed threshold, 95th percentile precipitation values were also used as the extreme precipitation threshold to reduce the influence of various rainfall events caused by different geographic locations; then, eight extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) were calculated to evaluate extreme precipitation in China. We found that the spatial characteristics of the eight EPIs exhibited downward trends from south to north. In the periods 1960–2017 and 2011–2100, trends in the EPIs were positive, but there were differences between different regions. In the past 58 years, the extreme precipitation increased in the northwest, southeast, and the Tibet Plateau of China, while decreased in northern China. Almost all the trends of EPIs are positive in the next two periods (2011–2055 and 2056–2100) except for some EPIs, such as intensity of extreme precipitation, which decrease in southeastern China in the second period (2056–2100). This study suggests that the frequency of extreme precipitation events in China will progressively increase, which implies that a substantial burden will be placed on social economies and terrestrial ecological processes.

scholarly journals PLANT COMMUNITY CHANGE ACROSS THE PALEOCENE-EOCENE BOUNDARY IN THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN, CENTRAL TEXAS

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer D. Wagner ◽  
Daniel J. Peppe ◽  
Jennifer M.K. O'Keefe ◽  
Christopher Dennison
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Plant Community ◽  
Plant Communities ◽  
Coastal Plain ◽  
Community Change ◽  
Northern Great Plains ◽  
Gulf Coastal Plain ◽  
High Turnover ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Central Texas

During the early Paleogene the Earth experienced long-term global warming punctuated by several short-term ‘hyperthermal’ events, the most pronounced of which is the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). During this time, tropical climates expanded into extra-tropical areas potentially forming a wide band of ‘paratropical’ forests that are hypothesized to have expanded into the mid-latitude Northern Great Plains (NGP). Relatively little is known about these ‘paratropical’ floras, which would have extended across the Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP). This study assesses the preserved floras from the GCP in Central Texas before and after the PETM to define plant ecosystem changes associated with the hyperthermal event in this region. These floras suggest a high turnover rate, change in plant community composition, and uniform plant communities across the GCP at the Paleocene-Eocene boundary. Paleoecology and paleoclimate estimates from Central Texas PETM floras suggest a warm and wet environment, indicative of tropical seasonal forest to tropical rainforest biomes. Fossil evidence from the GCP combined with data from the NGP and modern tropics suggest that warming during the PETM helped create a ‘paratropical belt’ that extended into the mid-latitudes. Evaluating the response of plant communities to rapid global warming is important for understanding and preparing for current and future global warming and climate change.

scholarly journals Effective CO<sub>2</sub> lifetime and future CO<sub>2</sub> levels based on fit function

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (9) ◽  
pp. 1591-1596 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. R. Sonnemann ◽  
M. Grygalashvyly
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Power Function ◽  
Co2 Emission ◽  
Emission Rates ◽  
Atmospheric Emissions ◽  
Atmospheric Concentration ◽  
Effective Lifetime ◽  
Global Emission ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations

Abstract. The estimated global CO2 emission rates and the measured atmospheric CO2 concentrations show that only a certain share of the emitted CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. For given atmospheric emissions of CO2, the effective lifetime determines its accumulation in the atmosphere and, consequently, its impact on the future global warming. We found that on average the inferred effective lifetime of CO2 decreases as its atmospheric concentration increases, reducing the rate of its accumulation in the atmosphere. We derived a power function that fits the varying lifetimes. Based on this fitting function, we calculated the increase of CO2 for different scenarios of future global emission rates.

Potential impact of global warming on deciduous oak dieback caused by ambrosia fungus Raffaelea sp. carried by ambrosia beetle Platypus quercivorus (Coleoptera: Platypodidae) in Japan

2002 ◽  
Vol 92 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Kamata ◽  
K. Esaki ◽  
K. Kato ◽  
Y. Igeta ◽  
K. Wada
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Reproductive Success ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Ambrosia Beetle ◽  
Quercus Crispula ◽  
Platypus Quercivorus ◽  
Stable Relationship ◽  
Future Global Warming ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
Associated Species

AbstractDeciduous oak dieback in Japan has been known since the 1930s, but in the last ten years epidemics have intensified and spread to the island’s western coastal areas. The symbiotic ambrosia fungus Raffaelea sp. is the causal agent of oak dieback, and is vectored by Platypus quercivorus (Murayama). This is the first example of an ambrosia beetle fungus that kills vigorous trees. Mortality of Quercus crispula was approximately 40% but much lower for associated species of Fagaceae, even though each species had a similar number of beetle attacks. It is likely that other oaks resistant to the fungus evolved under a stable relationship between the tree, fungus and beetle during a long evolutionary process. Quercus crispula was probably not part of this coevolution. This hypothesis was supported by the fact that P. quercivorus showed the least preference for Q. crispulayet exhibited highest reproductive success in this species. Therefore, P. quercivorus could spread more rapidly in stands with a high composition of Q. crispula. The present oak dieback epidemic in Japan probably resulted from the warmer climate that occurred from the late 1980s which made possible the fateful encounter of P. quercivorus with Q. cripsula by allowing the beetle to extend its distribution to more northerly latitudes and higher altitudes. Future global warming will possibly accelerate the overlapping of the distributions of P. quercivorus and Q. crispula with the result that oak dieback in Q. crispula will become more prevalent in Japan.

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