scholarly journals Analysis, Quantification and Evaluation of Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
pp. 113-207
Author(s):  
Maximilian Schaeffner ◽  
Eberhard Abele ◽  
Reiner Anderl ◽  
Christian Bölling ◽  
Johannes Brötz ◽  
...  

AbstractThis chapter describes the various approaches to analyse, quantify and evaluate uncertainty along the phases of the product life cycle. It is based on the previous chapters that introduce a consistent classification of uncertainty and a holistic approach to master the uncertainty of technical systems in mechanical engineering. Here, the following topics are presented: the identification of uncertainty by modelling technical processes, the detection and handling of data-induced conflicts, the analysis, quantification and evaluation of model uncertainty as well as the representation and visualisation of uncertainty. The different approaches are discussed and demonstrated on exemplary technical systems.

2021 ◽  
pp. 457-464
Author(s):  
Peter F. Pelz ◽  
Peter Groche ◽  
Marc E. Pfetsch ◽  
Maximilian Schaeffner

AbstractBertolt Brecht once closed a text with the words “We are disappointed to see the curtain close and all questions are left unanswered” [1]. In this book, it has become clear that uncertainty is immanent in the product life cycle of technical systems in mechanical engineering from (B) production, (C) usage, (D) reuse to (E) sourcing. The latter is the starting phase of the following sequence B, C, D, E. Uncertainty has been relevant since the beginning of the industrialisation, cf. Theodor Fontane’s ballad ‘The Tay Bridge’ quoted in Chap. 10.1007/978-3-030-78354-9_1 and this will continue to be so. Hence, we will never see “the curtain close”, but a perpetual contribution of engineering science, applied mathematics, law and further branches of science to master uncertainty in mechanical engineering.


Author(s):  
B. M. Bazrov ◽  
M. L. Kheifetz

The shortcomings of the traditional description of mechanical engineering product are shown, which are based on technological features oriented to single, typical and group operations of the technological process. It was proposed to represent the design of product and its parts with a structured set of relevant technological modules, in the form of a graph of hierarchical structure. The numerical characteristics of the structure of the graph of product, its levels, nodes, branches are considered. The description of the structures of products by a hierarchical graph at the first level makes it possible to identify the functional technological modules of products and, on their basis, to construct a unified classification and to suggest coding products, both for production objects and operation. Representation of parts by a set of modules allows identifying surface modules, working and binding, and on their basis to build a single classification of parts focused on different stages of the product life cycle. The presence of a unified methodological base allows managing the development of constructively complex products, minimizing duplication in the creation of new designs and effectively developing resource-saving technologies for their manufacture.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-48
Author(s):  
Aleksandr Feofanov ◽  
Andrey Okhmat ◽  
Anton Berdyugin

The article discusses the concepts of virtual and augmented realities. The comparison of themwas carried out in order to identify their similarities and differences. The areas of application of these technologies are identified, and the examples of their use are given. The ways of application of VR/AR technologiesin mechanical engineeringare defined, in particular, at the stage of the outline design of the product life cycle. The examples of the use of VR/AR technologies in Russian industrial companies are given.


2019 ◽  
Vol 297 ◽  
pp. 02007
Author(s):  
Boris Bazrov ◽  
Mikhail Kheifetz ◽  
Nikolay Popok

The shortcomings of the traditional description of the engineering product are shown. It is proposed to represent the design of the product and its details with a structured set of corresponding modules, in the form of a graph of a hierarchical structure. The characteristics of the structure of the product graph are considered: the number of levels, nodes, branches. The description of the structures of products by a hierarchical graph at the first level makes it possible to identify functional technological modules of the products and, on their basis, to construct a unified classification of products as objects of exploitation. Representation of parts by a set of modules allows you to identify modules based, working and connecting surfaces and on their basis to build a single classification of parts, focused on different stages of the product life cycle. The presence of a unified methodological base allows you to manage the development of product designs, minimize duplication in the creation of new designs and effectively develop technologies for their manufacture.


2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-30
Author(s):  
Amir S. Gohardani

The aerospace sector is a dynamic, highly technology-driven industry with a remarkable societal impact. Partially fueled by air transportation and space exploration, the United States aerospace and defense industry generated 143 billion worth in exports in 2017. In light of conventional marketing and management practices pertaining to product development, traditional, non-adaptive product life-cycle management often falls short in this industry, explicitly under circumstances when the customer experience is neglected on a holistic level. Notably, such an approach could indeed result in overlooked business opportunities and strategic planning inconsistencies. In this paper, a specific overlooked aerospace business opportunity is dissected with objectives to depict the potential existence of secondary markets and to suggest a holistic approach to product life-cycle management.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-16
Author(s):  
Alina Martynenko ◽  
◽  
Petro Pererva ◽  

The aim of the article. In the current market conditions, the main objectives of the product policy of the enterprise are to manage the competitiveness of products, adjusting their life cycles and assortment. For this purpose, the commodity strategy of the enterprise which is directed on achievement by the enterprise of target positions in the market by means of the products should be developed. The product is the subject of many management decisions: it is created, brought to market with the support of various marketing activities, if necessary modified and, if economically feasible, withdrawn from production. The aim of the article is to form marketing strategies for industrial products on the market on the basis of the developed classification of innovative goods depending on the level of their efficiency at separate stages of the product life cycle. Analyses results. The article develops the classification of innovative industrial products depending on the level of their efficiency at the separate stages of the product life cycle. The authors formed the recommended marketing strategies based on the proposed classification of products, depending on the range of levels of efficiency in which the product is. The article also presents the practical use of the developed recommendations on the example of the life cycle of the innovative electric motor of PJSC «Electromotor», which confirms their practical significance and suitability, allowing industrial enterprises to effectively manage their range. The article also builds a graph-analytical model of comprehensive efficiency indicators of an innovative electric motor, which allows to clearly track their dynamics over the entire period of its life cycle. Conclusions and directions for further research. In market conditions, each enterprise must determine the directions of formation and implementation of marketing product policy, taking into account the characteristics of each product. Forming a marketing product policy, the company must work on updating the range and bringing new products to market, because the right strategy for product range management will provide the desired volume of sales and corresponding profits. Thus, due to the proposed classification of goods at different stages of the life cycle, depending on the level of efficiency in which the product is or will be, the company can develop specific marketing strategies and tactics, including research and development (R&D), development of production, selection of sales channels, improvement of forms and methods of advertising, price regulation, development of new ones, modernization of existing and removal of obsolete inefficient products, etc. The use of effective marketing solutions can affect the duration and course of the product life cycle and consequently to achieve maximum profits. Keywords: efficiency, innovative product, product life cycle, marketing strategy, assortment management.


Food Research ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 1859-1866
Author(s):  
C. Novia ◽  
I. Santoso ◽  
S. Soemarno ◽  
R. Astuti

Improved performance of apple chip SMEs in Malang Raya is strongly influenced by groups based on the product life cycle classification. The purpose of this study was to classify apple chip SMEs based on the results of the classification at the product life cycle stage, determine the prediction of apple chip sales and improve the performance of apple chip SMEs in Malang Raya. The research location was in Malang Raya area which consists of Malang Regency, Malang City, and Batu City. Data collection was obtained from thirty-one respondents who were the owners of apple chips SMEs in Malang Raya. Data analysis for cluster classification used the product life cycle stage and performance improvement using artificial neural networks for prediction of sales production and determination of dominant variables based on Cronbach's alpha and dominant indicators based on corrected item-total correlations. The results showed that stage 1 was 2 SMEs, stage 2 was 16 SMEs, stage 3 was 11 SMEs and stage 2 was SMEs. Improving the performance of apple chip SMEs in Malang Raya through sales predictions in 2019-2023 is more focused on improving innovation through the ability to see the development of consumer tastes and follow the development of technology related to product processing and marketing.


2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 39-55
Author(s):  
Igor G Panin ◽  
Elena K. Volkova ◽  
Konstantin V Shchurin

Developed a comprehensive methodology for the techno-economic analysis of the reliability of complex technical systems as a set of basic components reliability - reliability, durability, serviceability and persistence. Highlights the individual calculation factors, on the basis of which it is possible to create an adequate integrated mathematical model which takes into account the stages of creation, implementation and consumption of reliability in the context of integrating optimization model based on maintaining a designated level of performance reliability at all stages of the product life cycle.


Author(s):  
Shahab Pourtalebi ◽  
Imre Horváth ◽  
Eliab Opiyo

A multi-faceted concept of customizing products and services, mass customization (MC), extends to multiple levels and to wide and diverse approaches and aspects. Although there are many related literature, the principles and technologies of mass customization of cyber-physical systems (CPSs), and in particular cyber-physical consumer durables (CPCDs), have not received enough attention. Unique characteristics of CPCDs make them difficult to be customized by using conventional MC approaches. This paper reports on the conduct and the results of a critical survey towards an in depth understanding of existing MC approaches. As a first step, a comprehensive reasoning model was created, which identified methodology, product life cycle, actors, artifact, and affordances as orthonormal domains of knowledge related to MC. Then, a different classification of MC approaches has been developed in order to provide a better resolution for product life cycle and more explicitly definite MC approaches. The outcome of our survey and analysis shows that although conventional MC approaches offer many applicable principles, none of these approaches, individually, is able to fulfill all the requirements for MC of CPCDs — therefore a novel approach is needed. Development of a novel approach would entail reformulation of applicable principles and generation of new ones. The survey revealed that more focused research is needed to come up with appropriate MC principles that focus on specific families of CPCDs.


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