Relative contributions of urbanization and greenhouse gases concentration on future climate over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiyuan Zheng ◽  
Wenjie Dong ◽  
Dongdong Yan ◽  
Yan Guo ◽  
Zhigang Wei ◽  
...  
Author(s):  
Alan M. Haywood ◽  
Andy Ridgwell ◽  
Daniel J. Lunt ◽  
Daniel J. Hill ◽  
Matthew J. Pound ◽  
...  

Given the inherent uncertainties in predicting how climate and environments will respond to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, it would be beneficial to society if science could identify geological analogues to the human race’s current grand climate experiment . This has been a focus of the geological and palaeoclimate communities over the last 30 years, with many scientific papers claiming that intervals in Earth history can be used as an analogue for future climate change. Using a coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling approach, we test this assertion for the most probable pre-Quaternary candidates of the last 100 million years: the Mid- and Late Cretaceous, the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), the Early Eocene, as well as warm intervals within the Miocene and Pliocene epochs. These intervals fail as true direct analogues since they either represent equilibrium climate states to a long-term CO 2 forcing—whereas anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases provide a progressive (transient) forcing on climate—or the sensitivity of the climate system itself to CO 2 was different. While no close geological analogue exists, past warm intervals in Earth history provide a unique opportunity to investigate processes that operated during warm (high CO 2 ) climate states. Palaeoclimate and environmental reconstruction/modelling are facilitating the assessment and calculation of the response of global temperatures to increasing CO 2 concentrations in the longer term (multiple centuries); this is now referred to as the Earth System Sensitivity, which is critical in identifying CO 2 thresholds in the atmosphere that must not be crossed to avoid dangerous levels of climate change in the long term. Palaeoclimatology also provides a unique and independent way to evaluate the qualities of climate and Earth system models used to predict future climate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul S. Wilcox ◽  
Charlotte Honiat ◽  
Martin Trüssel ◽  
R. Lawrence Edwards ◽  
Christoph Spötl

AbstractWarmer temperatures than today, over a period spanning millennia, most recently occurred in the Last Interglacial period, about 129,000 to 116,000 years ago. Yet, the timing and magnitude of warmth during this time interval are uncertain. Here we present a reconstruction of temperatures in the Swiss Alps over the full duration of the Last Interglacial period based on hydrogen isotopes from fluid inclusions in precisely dated speleothems. We find that temperatures were up to 4.0 °C warmer during the Last Interglacial period than in our present-day reference period 1971 to 1990. Climate instability, including an abrupt cooling event about 125,500 years ago, interrupted this thermal optimum but temperatures remained up to 2.0 °C warmer than the present day. We suggest that higher-elevation areas may be more susceptible to warming relative to lowland areas, and that this may hold also for a future climate forced by increasing levels of greenhouse gases.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Kalle Nordling

Anthropogenic aerosols alter the climate by scattering and absorbing the incoming solar radiation and by modifying clouds’ optical properties, causing a global cooling or warming effect. Anthropogenic aerosols are partly co-emitted with anthropogenic greenhouse gases, and future climate mitigation actions lead to the decline of anthropogenic aerosols’ cooling effect. However, the exact cooling effect is still uncertain. Part of this uncertainty is related to the structural differences of current climate models. This work evaluates the present-day anthropogenic aerosol temperature and precipitation effect and factors affecting the model difference. The key objectives of this thesis were: 1) What are the climate effects of present-day anthropogenic aerosols?, 2) What mechanisms drive the model-to-model differences?, and 3) How do future reductions affect local and global climates? The global models ECHAM6 and NorESM1 were used to evaluate the present-day climate effects with theidentical anthropogenic aerosol scheme MACv2-SP. Results reveal that an identical anthropogenic aerosol description does not reduce the uncertainty related to anthropogenic aerosol climate effects, and the difference in the estimated difference is due to model dynamics and oceans. The key mechanism driving the difference in the models was evaluated using data from the Precipitation Driven Model Intercomparison Project (PRMIP). Similar mechanisms drive the model-to-model difference for greenhouse gases and aerosols, where the key drivers are the differences in water vapor, the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere, and sea ice and snow cover changes. However, on a regional scale, the key drivers differ. Future anthropogenic aerosol effects were evaluated using new CMIP6 data. This work shows the importance of anthropogenic aerosols for current and future climate change. For amore accurate assessment of climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols, one needs to also consider remote effects of the local aerosols. The Arctic regions are particularly sensitive to midlatitude aerosols, such as Asian aerosols, which are expected to decline in the next decades. To gain a more accurate estimation of anthropogenic aerosols, it is not sufficient to only focus on composition and geographical distribution of aerosols, as the dynamic response of climate is also important. On global temperature results did not indicate clear aerosols signal, however future temperature development over the Asian regions is modulated by the future Asian aerosol emissions.


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