scholarly journals Tourism demand forecasting using stacking ensemble model with adaptive fuzzy combiner

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selcuk Cankurt ◽  
Abdulhamit Subasi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Soft Computing Techniques ◽  
Ann Models

AbstractOver the last decades, several soft computing techniques have been applied to tourism demand forecasting. Among these techniques, a neuro-fuzzy model of ANFIS (adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system) has started to emerge. A conventional ANFIS model cannot deal with the large dimension of a dataset, and cannot work with our dataset, which is composed of a 62 time-series, as well. This study attempts to develop an ensemble model by incorporating neural networks with ANFIS to deal with a large number of input variables for multivariate forecasting. Our proposed approach is a collaboration of two base learners, which are types of the neural network models and a meta-learner of ANFIS in the framework of the stacking ensemble. The results show that the stacking ensemble of ANFIS (meta-learner) and ANN models (base learners) outperforms its stand-alone counterparts of base learners. Numerical results indicate that the proposed ensemble model achieved a MAPE of 7.26% compared to its single-instance ANN models with MAPEs of 8.50 and 9.18%, respectively. Finally, this study which is a novel application of the ensemble systems in the context of tourism demand forecasting has shown better results compared to those of the single expert systems based on the artificial neural networks.

Tourism Demand Forecasting Using Stacking Ensemble Model With Adaptive Fuzzy Combiner

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selcuk Cankurt ◽  
Abdulhamit Subasi
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Soft Computing Techniques ◽  
Ann Models

Abstract Over the last decades, several soft computing techniques have been applied to tourism demand forecasting. Among these techniques, a neuro-fuzzy model, Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) has started to emerge. A conventional ANFIS model cannot deal with the large dimension of a dataset, and cannot work with our dataset, which is a composed of a 62 time-series, as well. This study attempts to develop an ensemble model by incorporating neural networks with ANFIS to deal with the large number of input variables for multivariate forecasting. Our proposed approach is a collaboration of two base learners, which are types of the neural network models and a meta-learner of ANFIS in the framework of the stacking ensemble. The results show that the stacking ensemble of ANFIS (meta-learner) and ANN models (base learners) outperforms its stand-alone counterparts of base learners. Numerical results indicate that the proposed ensemble model achieved a MAPE of 7.26% compared to its single-instance ANN models with MAPEs of 8.50% and 9.18% respectively. Finally, this study which is a novel application of the ensemble systems in the context of tourism demand forecasting has shown better results compared to those of the single expert systems based on the artificial neural networks.

Tourism Demand Forecasting Based on a Neuro-Fuzzy Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-69 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Atsalakis ◽  
Eleni Chnarogiannaki ◽  
Consantinos Zopounidis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Anfis Model ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

Tourism in Greece plays a major role in the country's economy and an accurate forecasting model for tourism demand is a useful tool, which could affect decision making and planning for the future. This paper answers some questions such as: how did the forecasting techniques evolve over the years, how precise can they be, and in what way can they be used in assessing the demand for tourism? An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been used in making the forecasts. The data used as input for the forecasting models relates to monthly time-series tourist arrivals by air, train, sea and road into Greece from January 1996 until September 2011. 80% of the data has been used to train the forecasting models and the rest to evaluate the models. The performance of the model is achieved by the calculation of some well known statistical errors. The accuracy of the ANFIS model is further compared with two conventional forecasting models: the autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series models. The results were satisfactory even if the collected data were not pleasing enough. The ANFIS performed further compared to the other time-series models. In conclusion, the accuracy of the ANFIS model forecast proved its great importance in tourism demand forecasting.

Comparative Analysis of Artificial Neural Networks and Neuro-Fuzzy Models for Multicriteria Demand Forecasting

2013 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-24 ◽  
Author(s):  
Golam Kabir ◽  
M. Ahsan Akhtar Hasin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Fuzzy Systems ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Model Complex ◽  
Artificial Neural

An organization has to make the right decisions in time depending on demand information to enhance the commercial competitive advantage in a constantly fluctuating business environment. Therefore, estimating the demand quantity for the next period most likely appears to be crucial. The objective of the paper is to propose a new forecasting mechanism which is modeled by artificial intelligence approaches including the comparison of both artificial neural networks (ANN) and adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (FIS) techniques to manage the fuzzy demand with incomplete information. Artificial neural networks has been applied as it is capable to model complex, nonlinear processes without having to assume the form of the relationship between input and output variables. Neuro-fuzzy systems also utilized to harness the power of the fuzzy logic and ANNs through utilizing the mathematical properties of ANNs in tuning rule-based fuzzy systems that approximate the way human’s process information. The effectiveness of the proposed approach to the demand forecasting issue is demonstrated for a 20/25 MVA Distribution Transformer from Energypac Engineering Limited (EEL), a leading power engineering company of Bangladesh.

Tourism Demand Forecasting Based on a Neuro-Fuzzy Model

2014 ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
George Atsalakis ◽  
Eleni Chnarogiannaki ◽  
Consantinos Zopounidis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Demand Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Anfis Model ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

Tourism in Greece plays a major role in the country's economy and an accurate forecasting model for tourism demand is a useful tool, which could affect decision making and planning for the future. This paper answers some questions such as: how did the forecasting techniques evolve over the years, how precise can they be, and in what way can they be used in assessing the demand for tourism? An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has been used in making the forecasts. The data used as input for the forecasting models relates to monthly time-series tourist arrivals by air, train, sea and road into Greece from January 1996 until September 2011. 80% of the data has been used to train the forecasting models and the rest to evaluate the models. The performance of the model is achieved by the calculation of some well known statistical errors. The accuracy of the ANFIS model is further compared with two conventional forecasting models: the autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time-series models. The results were satisfactory even if the collected data were not pleasing enough. The ANFIS performed further compared to the other time-series models. In conclusion, the accuracy of the ANFIS model forecast proved its great importance in tourism demand forecasting.

scholarly journals Soft Computing Tool Approach for Texture Classification Using Discrete Cosine Transform

2011 ◽  
pp. 12-16
Author(s):  
Pankaj H. Chandankhede
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Soft Computing ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Texture Classification ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Cosine Transform ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Soft Computing Techniques ◽  
Computing Models

Texture can be considered as a repeating pattern of local variation of pixel intensities. Cosine Transform (DCT) coefficients of texture images. As DCT works on gray level images, the color scheme of each image is transformed into gray levels. For classifying the images using DCT, two popular soft computing techniques namely neurocomputing and neuro-fuzzy computing are used. A feedforward neural network is used to train the backpropagation learning algorithm and an evolving fuzzy neural network to classify the textures. The soft computing models were trained using 80% of the texture data and the remaining was used for testing and validation purposes. A performance comparison was made among the soft computing models for the texture classification problem. In texture classification the goal is to assign an unknown sample image to a set of known texture classes. It is observed that the proposed neuro-fuzzy model performed better than the neural network.

scholarly journals Ensemble Recurrent Neural Network Based Probabilistic Wind Speed Forecasting Approach

Energies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1958 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lilin Cheng ◽  
Haixiang Zang ◽  
Tao Ding ◽  
Rong Sun ◽  
Miaomiao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Wind Power Integration ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

Wind energy is a commonly utilized renewable energy source, due to its merits of extensive distribution and rich reserves. However, as wind speed fluctuates violently and uncertainly at all times, wind power integration may affect the security and stability of power system. In this study, we propose an ensemble model for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. It consists of wavelet threshold denoising (WTD), recurrent neural network (RNN) and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). Firstly, WTD smooths the wind speed series in order to better capture its variation trend. Secondly, RNNs with different architectures are trained on the denoising datasets, operating as submodels for point wind speed forecasting. Thirdly, ANFIS is innovatively established as the top layer of the entire ensemble model to compute the final point prediction result, in order to take full advantages of a limited number of deeplearningbased submodels. Lastly, variances are obtained from submodels and then prediction intervals of probabilistic forecasting can be calculated, where the variances inventively consist of modeling and forecasting uncertainties. The proposed ensemble model is established and verified on less than one-hour-ahead ultra-short-term wind speed forecasting. We compare it with other soft computing models. The results indicate the feasibility and superiority of the proposed model in both point and probabilistic wind speed forecasting.

Mapping arsenic vulnerability at different spatial scales using statistical and machine learning models 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonal Bindal
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Fuzzy Regression ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Predictive Algorithms

<p>In the recent years, prediction modelling techniques have been widely used for modelling groundwater arsenic contamination. Determining the accuracy, performance and suitability of these different algorithms such as univariate regression (UR), fuzzy model, adaptive fuzzy regression (AFR), logistic regression (LR), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and hybrid random forest (HRF) models still remains a challenging task. The spatial data which are available at different scales with different cell sizes. In the current study we have tried to optimize the spatial resolution for best performance of the model selecting the best spatial resolution by testing various predictive algorithms. The model’s performance was evaluated based of the values of determination coefficient (R<sup>2</sup>), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). The outcomes of the study indicate that using 100m × 100m spatial resolution gives best performance in most of the models. The results also state HRF model performs the best than the commonly used ANFIS and LR models.</p>

scholarly journals A Comparative Study between Regression and Neural Networks for Modeling Al6082-T6 Alloy Drilling

Machines ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaos Karkalos ◽  
Nikolaos Efkolidis ◽  
Panagiotis Kyratsis ◽  
Angelos Markopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Soft Computing ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Process Conditions ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Computing Models

Apart from experimental research, the development of accurate and efficient models is considerably important in the field of manufacturing processes. Initially, regression models were significantly popular for this purpose, but later, the soft computing models were proven as a viable alternative to the established models. However, the effectiveness of soft computing models can be often dependent on the size of the experimental dataset, and it can be lower compared to that of the regression models for a small-sized dataset. In the present study, it is intended to conduct a comparison of the performance of various neural network models, such as the Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-NN), and the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models with the performance of a multiple regression model. For the development of the models, data from drilling experiments on an Al6082-T6 workpiece for various process conditions are employed, and the performance of models related to thrust force (Fz) and cutting torque (Mz) is assessed based on several criteria. From the analysis, it was found that the MLP models were superior to the other neural networks model and the regression model, as they were able to achieve a relatively lower prediction error for both models of Fz and Mz.

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