Large-scale climate variability footprint in water levels of alluvial aquifers across Iran

Author(s):  
Abolfazl Rezaei
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abolfazl Rezaei

Abstract The ability to predict future variability of groundwater resources in time and space is of critical
importance in society’s adaptation to climate variability and change. Periodic control of large scale ocean-atmospheric circulations on groundwater levels proposes a potentially effective source of longer term forecasting capability. In this study, as a first national-scale assessment, we use the continues wavelet transform, global power spectrum, and wavelet coherence analyses to quantify the controls of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the representative groundwater levels of the 24 principal aquifers, scattered across different 14 climate zones of Iran. The results demonstrate that aquifer storage variations are partially controlled by annual to interdecadal climate variability and are not solely a function of pumping variations. Moreover, teleconnections are observed to be both frequency and time specific. The significant coherence patterns between the climate indices and groundwater levels are observed at five frequency bands of the annual (~1-yr), interannual (2-4- and 4-6-yr), decadal (8-12-yr), and interdecadal (14-18yr), consistent with the dominant modes of climate indices. AMO’s strong footprint is observed at interdecadal and annual modes of groundwater levels while PDO’s highest imprint is seen in interannual, decadal, and interdecadal modes. The highest controlling influence of ENSO is observed across the decadal and interannual modes whereas the NAO’s footprint is marked at annual and interdecadal frequency bands. Further, it is observed that the groundwater variability being higher modulated by a combination of large-scale atmospheric circulations rather than each individual index. The decadal and interdecadal oscillation modes constitute the dominant modes in Iranian aquifers. Findings also mark the unsaturated zone contribution in damping and lagging of the climate variability modes, particularly for the higher frequency indices of ENSO and NAO where the groundwater variability is observed to be more correlated with lower frequent climate circulations such as PDO and AMO, rather than ENSO and NAO. Finally, it is found that the data length can significantly affect the teleconnections if the time series are not contemporaneous and only one value of coherence/correlation is computed for each particular series instead of separate computations for different frequency bands and different time spans.


Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Francisco Muñoz-Arriola ◽  
Tarik Abdel-Monem ◽  
Alessandro Amaranto

Common pool resource (CPR) management has the potential to overcome the collective action dilemma, defined as the tendency for individual users to exploit natural resources and contribute to a tragedy of the commons. Design principles associated with effective CPR management help to ensure that arrangements work to the mutual benefit of water users. This study contributes to current research on CPR management by examining the process of implementing integrated management planning through the lens of CPR design principles. Integrated management plans facilitate the management of a complex common pool resource, ground and surface water resources having a hydrological connection. Water governance structures were evaluated through the use of participatory methods and observed records of interannual changes in rainfall, evapotranspiration, and ground water levels across the Northern High Plains. The findings, documented in statutes, field interviews and observed hydrologic variables, point to the potential for addressing large-scale collective action dilemmas, while building on the strengths of local control and participation. The feasibility of a “bottom up” system to foster groundwater resilience was evidenced by reductions in groundwater depths of 2 m in less than a decade.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 502
Author(s):  
Jinman Kim ◽  
Heuisoo Han ◽  
Yoonhwa Jin

This paper shows the results of a field appliance study of the hydraulic well method to prevent embankment piping, which is proposed by the Japanese Matsuyama River National Highway Office. The large-scale embankment experiment and seepage analysis were conducted to examine the hydraulic well. The experimental procedure is focused on the pore water pressure. The water levels of the hydraulic well were compared with pore water pressure data, which were used to look over the seepage variations. Two different types of large-scale experiments were conducted according to the installation points of hydraulic wells. The seepage velocity results by the experiment were almost similar to those of the analyses. Further, the pore water pressure oriented from the water level variations in the hydraulic well showed similar patterns between the experiment and numerical analysis; however, deeper from the surface, the larger pore water pressure of the numerical analysis was calculated compared to the experimental values. In addition, the piping effect according to the water level and location of the hydraulic well was quantitatively examined for an embankment having a piping guide part. As a result of applying the hydraulic well to the point where piping occurred, the hydraulic well with a 1.0 m water level reduced the seepage velocity by up to 86%. This is because the difference in the water level between the riverside and the protected side is reduced, and it resulted in reducing the seepage pressure. As a result of the theoretical and numerical hydraulic gradient analysis according to the change in the water level of the hydraulic well, the hydraulic gradient decreased linearly according to the water level of the hydraulic well. From the results according to the location of the hydraulic well, installation of it at the point where piping occurred was found to be the most effective. A hydraulic well is a good device for preventing the piping of an embankment if it is installed at the piping point and the proper water level of the hydraulic well is applied.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Schreinemachers ◽  
Wiebe Strick

<p>Should a bridge always be functional and accessible? Should it always fulfil its purpose? This seemingly self- evident question is a key question in footbridge design that is oriented towards creating experiences.</p><p>Footbridges are able to successfully enriches our experience of a certain context or landscape, it cannot be functional all the time, under all environmental conditions, weather and seasons. A good example is the Zalige bridge designed as part of the Room for the River, a large-scale national program for inland flood- protection in the Netherlands. Build upon the floodplains within a newly created river-park by the city of Nijmegen, the Zalige bridge’s curved shape stands in direct relationship to the fluctuating water levels of the river. When water levels rise, the bridge partially submerges, becoming only accessible through steppingstones. At peak heights, the bridge disappears completely, becoming a metaphor for our relationship to the water.</p><p>“Building a bridge that fails to fulfil its sole purpose of containing the water; this can only be pulled off in the Netherlands.” – jury Dutch Design Awards about the Zalige bridge.</p><p>The loss of functionality is directly related to the creation of an experience. When the water levels rose in January 2018, the bridge became the prime location to experience the changing landscape. It shows that engineering a bridge is not solely focussed on the most efficient engineering, but for the purpose it fulfils as for society. For most pedestrian bridges where the perception of the user is on a different level as for a highway bridge, functionality provides more than just cost driven or efficiency driven parameters. It is more related to the added value for the community. When design not solemnly derives from the sheer taste and predilection of the designer but is based on the user’s experience, it generates a durable relation with a feeling of ownership of its users. The key is to create this experience in an elegant and natural way and not forced or dictated. It should be people's own unique discovery and should not be imposed.</p>


Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1805 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Scorzini ◽  
Alessio Radice ◽  
Daniela Molinari

Rapid tools for the prediction of the spatial distribution of flood depths within inundated areas are necessary when the implementation of complex hydrodynamic models is not possible due to time constraints or lack of data. For example, similar tools may be extremely useful to obtain first estimates of flood losses in the aftermath of an event, or for large-scale river basin planning. This paper presents RAPIDE, a new GIS-based tool for the estimation of the water depth distribution that relies only on the perimeter of the inundation and a digital terrain model. RAPIDE is based on a spatial interpolation of water levels, starting from the hypothesis that the perimeter of the flooded area is the locus of points having null water depth. The interpolation is improved by (i) the use of auxiliary lines, perpendicular to the river reach, along which additional control points are placed and (ii) the possibility to introduce a mask for filtering interpolation points near critical areas. The reliability of RAPIDE is tested for the 2002 flood in Lodi (northern Italy), by comparing the inundation depth maps obtained by the rapid tool to those from 2D hydraulic modelling. The change of the results, related to the use of either method, affects the quantitative estimation of direct damages very limitedly. The results, therefore, show that RAPIDE can provide accurate flood depth predictions, with errors that are fully compatible with its use for river-basin scale flood risk assessments and civil protection purposes.


2001 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 44-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karl E. Havens ◽  
Kang-Ren Jin ◽  
Andrew J. Rodusky ◽  
Bruce Sharfstein ◽  
Mark A. Brady ◽  
...  

In order to reverse the damage to aquatic plant communities caused by multiple years of high water levels in Lake Okeechobee, Florida (U.S.), the Governing Board of the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD) authorized a "managed recession" to substantially lower the surface elevation of the lake in spring 2000. The operation was intended to achieve lower water levels for at least 8 weeks during the summer growing season, and was predicted to result in a large-scale recovery of submerged vascular plants. We treated this operation as a whole ecosystem experiment, and assessed ecological responses using data from an existing network of water quality and submerged plant monitoring sites. As a result of large-scale discharges of water from the lake, coupled with losses to evaporation and to water supply deliveries to agriculture and other regional users, the lake surface elevation receded by approximately 1 m between April and June. Water depths in shoreline areas that historically supported submerged plant communities declined from near 1.5 m to below 0.5 m. Low water levels persisted for the entire summer. Despite shallow depths, the initial response (in June 2000) of submerged plants was very limited and water remained highly turbid (due at first to abiotic seston and later to phytoplankton blooms). Turbidity decreased in July and the biomass of plants increased. However, submerged plant biomass did not exceed levels observed during summer 1999 (when water depths were greater) until August. Furthermore, a vascular plant-dominated assemblage (Vallisnera, Potamogeton, and Hydrilla) that occurred in 1999 was replaced with a community of nearly 98% Chara spp. (a macro-alga) in 2000. Hence, the lake’s submerged plant community appeared to revert to an earlier successional stage despite what appeared to be better conditions for growth. To explain this unexpected response, we evaluated the impacts that Hurricane Irene may have had on the lake in the previous autumn. In mid-October 1999, this category 1 hurricane passed just to the south of the lake, with wind velocities over the lake surface reaching 90 km h-1 at their peak. Output from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic / sediment transport model indicates that during the storm, current velocities in surface waters of the lake increased from near 5 cm s-1to as high as 100 cm s-1. These strong velocities were associated with large-scale uplifting and horizontal transport of fine-grained sediments from the lake bottom. Water quality data collected after the storm confirmed that the hurricane resulted in lake-wide nutrient and suspended solids concentrations far in excess of those previously documented for a 10-year data set. These conditions persisted through the winter months and may have negatively impacted plants that remained in the lake at the end of the 1999 growing season. The results demonstrate that in shallow lakes, unpredictable external forces, such as hurricanes, can play a major role in ecosystem dynamics. In regions where these events are common (e.g., the tropics and subtropics), consideration should be given to how they might affect long-term lake management programs.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2555-2608 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. H. Sutanudjaja ◽  
L. P. H. van Beek ◽  
S. M. de Jong ◽  
F. C. van Geer ◽  
M. F. P. Bierkens

Abstract. Large-scale groundwater models involving aquifers and basins of multiple countries are still rare due to a lack of hydrogeological data which are usually only available in developed countries. In this study, we propose a novel approach to construct large-scale groundwater models by using global datasets that are readily available. As the test-bed, we use the combined Rhine-Meuse basin that contains groundwater head data used to verify the model output. We start by building a distributed land surface model (30 arc-second resolution) to estimate groundwater recharge and river discharge. Subsequently, a MODFLOW transient groundwater model is built and forced by the recharge and surface water levels calculated by the land surface model. Although the method that we used to couple the land surface and MODFLOW groundwater model is considered as an offline-coupling procedure (i.e. the simulations of both models were performed separately), results are promising. The simulated river discharges compare well to the observations. Moreover, based on our sensitivity analysis, in which we run several groundwater model scenarios with various hydrogeological parameter settings, we observe that the model can reproduce the observed groundwater head time series reasonably well. However, we note that there are still some limitations in the current approach, specifically because the current offline-coupling technique simplifies dynamic feedbacks between surface water levels and groundwater heads, and between soil moisture states and groundwater heads. Also the current sensitivity analysis ignores the uncertainty of the land surface model output. Despite these limitations, we argue that the results of the current model show a promise for large-scale groundwater modeling practices, including for data-poor environments and at the global scale.


2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 1083-1095
Author(s):  
To Viet Thang ◽  
Nguyen T. Thu Nga ◽  
Ngo Le Long

Abstract Upstream hydropower development has a great impact on downstream flows. According to the Regulation of Multi-reservoir Operation in Vu Gia – Thu Bon River Basin (Regulation 15371), four large-scale upstream reservoirs must discharge certain flow during the dry season to increase water levels at downstream hydrological stations named Ai Nghia and Giao Thuy. These stations are used as the control points for the downstream water supply. An optimizing-simulation based model was developed that both maximizes total electricity production and ensures minimum flow downstream as required. A thousand combinations of the reservoir inflows were generated by Monte Carlo simulation, considering the correlation between tributaries. Then, the Scatter search algorithm available in the Optquest module of Crystal Ball was used to find the optimal release from the reservoirs. The results show that the current Regulation 1537 can be improved for more efficient water resources management.


2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 2879-2925 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. C. D. Paiva ◽  
W. Collischonn ◽  
M.-P. Bonnet ◽  
L. G. G. de Gonçalves ◽  
S. Calmant ◽  
...  

Abstract. In this work we introduce and evaluate a data assimilation framework for gauged and radar altimetry-based discharge and water levels applied to a large scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic model for stream flow forecasts over the Amazon River basin. We used the process-based hydrological model called MGB-IPH coupled with a river hydrodynamic module using a storage model for floodplains. The Ensemble Kalman Filter technique was used to assimilate information from hundreds of gauging and altimetry stations based on ENVISAT satellite data. Model state variables errors were generated by corrupting precipitation forcing, considering log-normally distributed, time and spatially correlated errors. The EnKF performed well when assimilating in situ discharge, by improving model estimates at the assimilation sites and also transferring information to ungauged rivers reaches. Altimetry data assimilation improves results at a daily basis in terms of water levels and discharges with minor degree, even though radar altimetry data has a low temporal resolution. Sensitivity tests highlighted the importance of the magnitude of the precipitation errors and that of their spatial correlation, while temporal correlation showed to be dispensable. The deterioration of model performance at some unmonitored reaches indicates the need for proper characterization of model errors and spatial localization techniques for hydrological applications. Finally, we evaluated stream flow forecasts for the Amazon basin based on initial conditions produced by the data assimilation scheme and using the ensemble stream flow prediction approach where the model is forced by past meteorological forcings. The resulting forecasts agreed well with the observations and maintained meaningful skill at large rivers even for long lead times, e.g. > 90 days at the Solimões/Amazon main stem. Results encourage the potential of hydrological forecasts at large rivers and/or poorly monitored regions by combining models and remote sensing information.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Yu ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
Guilong Li ◽  
Wei Yu

Abstract A recent study of future changes in global wind power using an ensemble of ten CMIP5 climate simulations indicated an interhemispheric asymmetry of wind power changes over the 21st century, featured by power decreases across the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and increases across the tropics and subtropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Here we analyze future global projections of surface mean and extreme winds by means of a single-model initial-condition 50-member ensemble of climate simulations generated with CanESM5, the Canadian model participated in CMIP6. We analyze the ensemble mean and spread of boreal winter mean and extreme wind trends over the next half-century (2021-2070) and explore the contribution of internal climate variability to these trends. Surface wind speed is projected to mostly decrease in northern mid-low latitudes and southern mid-latitudes and increase in northern high latitudes and southern tropical and subtropical regions, with considerable regional variations. Large ensemble spreads are apparent, especially with remarkable differences over northern parts of South America and northern Russia. The interhemispheric asymmetry of wind projections is found in most ensemble members, and can be related to large-scale changes in surface temperature and atmospheric circulation. The extreme wind has similar structure of future projections, whereas its reductions tend to be more consistent over northern mid-latitudes. The projected mean and extreme wind changes are attributed to changes in both externally anthropogenic forced and internal climate variability generated components. The spread in wind projections is partially due to large-scale atmospheric circulation variability.


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