Deforestation scenarios show the importance of secondary forest for meeting Panama’s carbon goals

Abstract Context Tropical forest loss has a major impact on climate change. Secondary forest growth has potential to mitigate these impacts, but uncertainty regarding future land use, remote sensing limitations, and carbon model accuracy have inhibited understanding the range of potential future carbon dynamics. Objectives We evaluated the effects of four scenarios on carbon stocks and sequestration in a mixed-use landscape based on Recent Trends (RT), Accelerated Deforestation (AD), Grow Only (GO), and Grow Everything (GE) scenarios. Methods Working in central Panama, we coupled a 1-ha resolution LiDAR derived carbon map with a locally derived secondary forest carbon accumulation model. We used Dinamica EGO 4.0.5 to spatially simulate forest loss across the landscape based on recent deforestation rates. We used local studies of belowground, woody debris, and liana carbon to estimate ecosystem scale carbon fluxes. Results Accounting for 58.6 percent of the forest in 2020, secondary forests (< 50 years) accrue 88.9 percent of carbon in the GO scenario by 2050. RT and AD scenarios lost 36,707 and 177,035 ha of forest respectively by 2030, a carbon gain of 7.7 million Mg C (RT) and loss of 2.9 million Mg C (AD). Growing forest on all available land (GE) could achieve 56 percent of Panama’s land-based carbon sequestration goal by 2050. Conclusions Our estimates of potential carbon storage demonstrate the important contribution of secondary forests to land-based carbon sequestration in central Panama. Protecting these forests will contribute significantly to meeting Panama’s climate change mitigation goals and enhance water security.

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Old-growth forest loss and secondary forest recovery across Amazonian countries

10.31223/x52896 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Charlotte Smith ◽

John Healey ◽

Erika Berenguer ◽

Paul Young ◽

Ben Taylor ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Emissions ◽

Large Scale ◽

Secondary Forest ◽

Temporal Trends ◽

Forest Recovery ◽

Forest Loss ◽

Secondary Forests ◽

Old Growth ◽

Old Growth Forest

There is growing recognition of the potential of large-scale restoration in the Amazon as a “nature-based solution” to climate change. However, our knowledge of forest loss and recovery beyond Brazil is limited, and carbon emissions and accumulation have not been estimated for the whole biome. Combining a 33-year land cover dataset with estimates of above-ground biomass and carbon sequestration rates, we evaluate forest loss and recovery across nine Amazonian countries and at a local scale. We also estimate the role of secondary forests in offsetting old-growth deforestation emissions and explore the temporal trends in forest loss and recovery. We find secondary forests across the biome to have offset just 9.7% of carbon emissions from old-growth deforestation, despite occupying 27.6% of deforested land. However, these numbers varied between countries ranging from 9.0% in Brazil to 23.8% in Guyana for carbon offsetting, and 24.8% in Brazil to 56.9% in Ecuador for forest area recovery. We reveal a strong, negative spatial relationship between old-growth forest loss and recovery by secondary forests, showing that regions with the greatest potential for large-scale restoration are also those that currently have the lowest recovery (e.g. Brazil dominates deforestation and emissions but has the lowest recovery). Our findings identify three important challenges for policy makers: (1) incentivising large-scale restoration in highly deforested regions, (2) protecting secondary forests without disadvantaging landowners who depend on farm-fallow systems, and (3) preventing further deforestation. Combatting all of these successfully is essential to ensuring that the Amazon biome achieves its potential in mitigating anthropogenic climate change.

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The Role of Recent (1985–2014) Patterns of Land Abandonment and Environmental Factors in the Establishment and Growth of Secondary Forests in the Iberian Peninsula

Land ◽

10.3390/land10080817 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 (8) ◽

pp. 817

Author(s):

Marina Palmero-Iniesta ◽

Josep Maria Espelta ◽

Mario Padial-Iglesias ◽

Òscar Gonzàlez-Guerrero ◽

Lluís Pesquer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Environmental Factors ◽

Iberian Peninsula ◽

Forest Cover ◽

Secondary Forest ◽

Forest Growth ◽

Deciduous Forests ◽

Secondary Forests ◽

Study Region ◽

Leaf Habit ◽

Forest Establishment

Farmland abandonment has been a widespread land-use change in the Iberian Peninsula since the second half of the 20th century, leading to the establishment of secondary forests across the region. In this study, we aimed to address changes in the recent (1985–2014) emergence patterns of these forests and examine how environmental factors affected their growth by considering differences in leaf-habit types. We used a combination of Landsat-derived land-cover maps and aboveground biomass (AGB) maps from the European Space Agency to assess the secondary forest establishment and growth, respectively, in the study region. We also obtained a set of topographic, climatic and landscape variables from diverse GIS layers and used them for determining changes over time in the environmental drivers of forest establishment and AGB using general linear models. The results highlight that secondary forest cover was still increasing in the Iberian Peninsula at a rate above the European average. Yet, they also indicate a directional change in the emergence of secondary forests towards lower and less steep regions with higher water availability (mean rainfall and SPEI) and less forest cover but are subjected to greater drought events. In addition, these environmental factors differentially affect the growth of forests with different leaf-habit types: i.e., needleleaf secondary forests being less favoured by high temperature and precipitation, and broadleaf deciduous forests being most negatively affected by drought. Finally, these spatial patterns of forest emergence and the contrasting responses of forest leaf-habits to environmental factors explained the major development of broadleaf evergreen compared to broadleaf deciduous forests and, especially, needleleaf secondary forests. These results will improve the knowledge of forest dynamics that have occurred in the Iberian Peninsula in recent decades and provide an essential tool for understanding the potential effects of climate warming on secondary forest growth.

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Mexican agricultural frontier communities differ in forest dynamics with consequences for conservation and restoration

10.32942/osf.io/qxje8 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Madelon Lohbeck ◽

Ben DeVries ◽

Frans Bongers ◽

Miguel Martinez-Ramos ◽

Armando Navarrete-Segueda ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Temporal Variation ◽

Forest Conservation ◽

Forest Cover ◽

Secondary Forest ◽

Forest Loss ◽

Secondary Forests ◽

High Quality ◽

Agricultural Frontier ◽

Forest Regrowth ◽

Land Availability

Forest regrowth is key to achieve restoration commitments, but we need to better understand under what circumstances it takes place and how long secondary forests persist. We studied a recently colonized agricultural frontier in southern Mexico. We quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of forest loss and regrowth and tested how temporal variation in climate, and spatial variation in land availability, land quality and accessibility affect forest disturbance, regrowth and secondary forest persistence. Marqués de Comillas consistently exhibits more forest loss than regrowth, resulting in a net decrease of 30% forest cover (1991-2016). Secondary forest cover remained relatively constant while secondary forest persistence increased, suggesting that farmers are moving away from shifting cultivation. Temporal variation in disturbance and regrowth were explained by the annual variation in the Oceanic El Niño index combined with dry season rainfall and key policy and market interventions.Across communities the availability of high-quality soil overrules the effects of land availability and accessibility, but that at the pixel-level all three factors contributed to explaining forest conservation and restoration. Communities with more high-quality soils were able to spare land for forest conservation, and had less secondary forest that persisted for longer. Old forest and secondary forests were better represented on low-quality lands and on communal land. Both old and secondary forest were less common close to the main road, where secondary forests were also less persistent. Forest conservation and restoration can be explained by a complex interplay of biophysical and social drivers across time, space and scale. We warrant that stimulating private land ownership may cause remaining forest patches to be lost and that conservation initiatives should benefit the whole community. Forest regrowth and secondary forest persistence competes with agricultural production and ensuring farmers can access restoration benefits is key to success.

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ASSESSING THE SUITABILITY OF PIONEER SPECIES FOR SECONDARY FOREST RESTORATION IN BENIN IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

BOIS & FORETS DES TROPIQUES ◽

10.19182/bft2017.332.a31332 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 332 ◽

pp. 43-55 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Alain Jaures Gbètoho ◽

Augustin K. N. Aoudji ◽

Lizanne Roxburgh ◽

Jean C. Ganglo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

West Africa ◽

Global Climate Change ◽

Forest Restoration ◽

Species Distribution Model ◽

Secondary Forest ◽

Global Climate ◽

Environmental Data ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Secondary Forests

In this study, species distribution model- ling (SDM) was applied to the manage- ment of secondary forests in Benin. This study aims at identifying suitable areas where the use of candidate pioneer spe- cies, such as Lonchocarpus sericeus and Anogeissus leiocarpa, could be targeted to ensure at low cost, currently and in the context of global climate change, fast reconstitution of secondary forests and disturbed ecosystems and the recovery of their biodiversity. Using occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Infor- mation Facility (GBIF) website and cur- rent environmental data, the factors that affected the distribution of the species were assessed in West Africa. The models developed in MaxEnt and R software for West Africa only, for both species, showed good predictive power with AUC > 0.80 and AUC ratios well above 1.5. The results were projected in future climate at the horizon 2055, using AfriClim data under rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 and suggested a little reduction in the range of L. seri- ceus and any variation for A. leiocarpa. The potential distribution of the two spe- cies indicated that they could be used for vegetation restoration activities both now and in the mid-21st century. Improve- ment are needed through the use of com- plementary data, the extension to others species and the assessment of uncertain- ties related to these predictions.

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Assessing Baseline Carbon Stocks for Forest Transitions: A Case Study of Agroforestry Restoration from Hawaiʻi

Agriculture ◽

10.3390/agriculture11030189 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 189

Author(s):

Angelica Melone ◽

Leah L. Bremer ◽

Susan E. Crow ◽

Zoe Hastings ◽

Kawika B. Winter ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Ecosystem Services ◽

Secondary Forest ◽

Woody Debris ◽

Soil Mass ◽

Climate Mitigation ◽

Secondary Forests ◽

Soil C ◽

C Stocks ◽

Forest Transitions

As the extent of secondary forests continues to expand throughout the tropics, there is a growing need to better understand the ecosystem services, including carbon (C) storage provided by these ecosystems. Despite their spatial extent, there are limited data on how the ecosystem services provided by secondary forest may be enhanced through the restoration of both ecological and agroecological functions in these systems. This study quantifies the above- and below-ground C stocks in a non-native secondary forest in Hawaiʻi where a community-based non-profit seeks to restore a multi-strata agroforestry system for cultural and ecological benefits. For soil C, we use the equivalent soil mass method both to estimate stocks and examine spatial heterogeneity at high resolution (eg. sub 5 m) to define a method and sampling design that can be replicated to track changes in C stocks on-site and elsewhere. The assessed total ecosystem C was ~388.5 Mg C/ha. Carbon stock was highest in trees (~192.4 Mg C/ha; ~50% of total C); followed by soil (~136.4 Mg C/ha; ~35% of total C); roots (~52.7 Mg C/ha; ~14% of total C); and was lowest in coarse woody debris (~4.7 Mg C/ha; ~1% of total C) and litter (~2.3 Mg C/ha; <1% of total C). This work provides a baseline carbon assessment prior to agroforest restoration that will help to better quantify the contributions of secondary forest transitions and restoration efforts to state climate policy. In addition to the role of C sequestration in climate mitigation, we also highlight soil C as a critical metric of hybrid, people-centered restoration success given the role of soil organic matter in the production of a suite of on- and off-site ecosystem services closely linked to local sustainable development goals.

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Carbon Accumulation Potential from Natural Forest Regrowth of Godech Municipality, Western Bulgaria

Civil and Environmental Engineering Reports ◽

10.2478/ceer-2021-0014 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 31 (1) ◽

pp. 192-199

Author(s):

Borislav Grigorov

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Aboveground Biomass ◽

Natural Forest ◽

Carbon Accumulation ◽

Important Process ◽

Forest Regrowth ◽

Sequestration Rate ◽

Carbon Sequestration Rate ◽

Potential Carbon

Abstract The present research deals with carbon sequestration, as an important process for mitigating the effects of climate change. The investigation focuses on a 30-year period and it covers only aboveground biomass that builds up from natural forest regrowth, excluding any plantation techniques. Potential carbon sequestration rate from natural forest regrowth in Godech Municipality was measured in Mg C ha−1 yr−1 and the resolution of the map was 1x1 km. The results of the study display that carbon accumulation values in the researched area were consistent with those that were expected in the largest parts of Bulgaria. The biggest share of Godech Municipality falls within the range of 0.82 – 0.96 Mg C ha−1 yr−1 with restricted areas around the villages of Barlya, Smolcha, Gubesh, Murgash and Varbnitsa that may accumulate between 0.96 – 1.11 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. In conclusion, carbon accumulation only from natural forest regrowth provides representative information, however it would have been better if different plantation techniques were regarded as well. The successful results of the investigation should encourage other studies of this type in the neighbouring municipalities.

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Insect and Disease Disturbances Correlate With Reduced Carbon Sequestration in Forests of the Contiguous United States

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change ◽

10.3389/ffgc.2021.716582 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 ◽

Author(s):

Brendan R. Quirion ◽

Grant M. Domke ◽

Brian F. Walters ◽

Gary M. Lovett ◽

Joseph E. Fargione ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

United States ◽

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Confidence Interval ◽

Global Climate ◽

National Forest Inventory ◽

Carbon Accumulation ◽

Trade Policies ◽

Belowground Carbon ◽

Live Tree

Major efforts are underway to harness the carbon sequestration capacity of forests to combat global climate change. However, tree damage and death associated with insect and disease disturbance can reduce this carbon sequestration capacity. We quantified average annual changes in live tree carbon accumulation associated with insect and disease disturbances utilizing the most recent (2001 – 2019) remeasurement data from National Forest Inventory plots in the contiguous United States. Forest plots recently impacted by insect disturbance sequestered on average 69% less carbon in live trees than plots with no recent disturbance, and plots recently impacted by disease disturbance sequestered on average 28% less carbon in live trees than plots with no recent disturbance. Nationally, we estimate that carbon sequestration by live trees, defined as the estimated average annual rate of above- and belowground carbon accumulation in live trees (diameter at breast height ≥ 2.54 cm) on forest land, has been reduced by 9.33 teragrams carbon per year (95% confidence interval: 7.11 to 11.58) in forests that have experienced recent insect disturbance and 3.49 teragrams carbon per year (95% confidence interval: 1.30 to 5.70) in forests that have experienced recent disease disturbance, for a total reduction of 12.83 teragrams carbon per year (95% confidence interval: 8.41 to 17.28). Strengthened international trade policies and phytosanitary standards as well as improved forest management have the potential to protect forests and their natural capacity to contribute to climate change mitigation.

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Quantifying forest growth and uncertainty across Brazil under potential future climates: combing models and Earth Observation

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16550 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Thomas Smallman ◽

David Milodowski ◽

Mathew Williams

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Cycle ◽

Carbon Cycling ◽

Earth Observation ◽

Forest Growth ◽

Forest Carbon ◽

Carbon Accumulation ◽

Terrestrial Ecosystem Model ◽

New Forest ◽

The Impact

Forest play a major role in the global carbon cycle storing large amounts of carbon in both living and dead organic matter. Forests can be either a sink or source of carbon depending on the net of far larger fluxes of carbon into (photosynthesis) and out of (mortality, decomposition and disturbance) forest ecosystems. Due to the potential for substantial accumulation of carbon in forests, has led to nationally determined commitments (NDCs) by Governments across the world to protect existing and plant large areas of new forest. However, significant uncertainty remains in our understanding of current forest carbon cycling, especially mortality and decomposition processes, and how carbon cycling will change under climate change. These uncertainties present two connected challenges to effective forest protection and new planting; (i) which existing forests are under the greatest risk to climate change and (ii) where are the most climate safe locations for new forest planting to maximise carbon accumulation.Here we combine a terrestrial ecosystem model of intermediate complexity (DALEC) with Earth observation (e.g. leaf area, biomass, disturbance) and databased information (soil texture and carbon stocks) within a Bayesian model-data fusion framework (CARDAMOM) to retrieve location specific carbon cycle analyse (i.e. parameter retrievals) across Brazil at 0.5 x 0.5 degree spatial resolution between 2001 and 2015. CARDAMOM allows us to retrieve, independently for each location analysed, an ensemble of parameters for DALEC which are consistent with the location specific observational constraints and their uncertainties. These ensembles give us multiple potential, but observation consistent, realisations of forest carbon cycling and ecosystem traits. We directly quantify our uncertainty in forest carbon cycling and ecosystem traits from these ensembles. The DALEC parameterisations are then simulated into the future under a range of climate scenarios from the CMIP6 model dataset. From these simulations we will, with defined uncertainty, quantify the impact on forest carbon accumulation of existing forest and the potential accumulation of new planting. This information can feed into national planning identifying locations which have the greatest confidence of being a net sink of carbon under climate change highlighting forest areas which are most important to protect and suitable for new planting.

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Climate change mitigation through carbon dioxide (CO2) sequestration in community reserved forests of northwest Tanzania

Archives of Agriculture and Environmental Science ◽

10.26832/24566632.2020.050301 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 231-240

Author(s):

Gisandu K. Malunguja ◽

Ashalata Devi ◽

Mhuji Kilonzo ◽

Chrispinus D.K. Rubanza

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Dioxide ◽

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Co2 Sequestration ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Quantitative Information ◽

Carbon Accumulation ◽

Systematic Sampling ◽

Sequestration Potential ◽

Change Mitigation

Forests play a key role in climate change mitigation through sequestering and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, there is inadequate information about carbon accumulation and sequestered by community reserved forests in Tanzania. A study was carried to quantify the amount of carbon sequestered in two forests namely; Nyasamba and Bubinza of Kishapu district, northwestern Tanzania. A ground-based field survey design under a systematic sampling technique was adopted. A total of 45 circular plots (15 m radius) along transects were established. The distances between transect and plots were maintained at 550 and 300 m, respectively. Data on herbaceous C stocking potential was determined using destructive harvest method while tree carbon stocking was estimated by allometric equations. The collected data were organized on excel datasheet followed by descriptive analysis for quantitative information using Computer Microsoft Excel and SPSS software version 20, while soil samples were analyzed based on the standard laboratory procedures. Results revealed higher carbon sequestration of 102.49±39.87 and 117.52±10.27 for soil pools than plants both herbaceous (3.01±1.12 and 6.27±3.79 t CO2e/yr) and trees (5.70±3.15 and 6.60±2.88 t CO2e/yr) for Nyasamba and Bubinza respectively. The study recorded a potential variation of soil carbon sequestration, which varied across depths category (P < 0.05). However, there was no difference across sites (P >0.05) and species (P > 0.05) for herbaceous and trees. The findings of this study portrayed a significantly low value for carbon stocking and sequestration potential for enhanced climate change mitigation. Therefore, proper management of community reserved forest is required to accumulate more C for enhancing stocking potential hence climate change mitigation through CO2 sequestration offsets mechanism.

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Cores for concern: Peatland carbon dynamics in a changing climate; a multidisciplinary approach.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-6222 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Luke Andrews ◽

James Rowson ◽

Richard Payne ◽

Simon Caporn ◽

Nancy Dise ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Climate Models ◽

Global Climate ◽

Global Climate Models ◽

Carbon Accumulation ◽

Gas Fluxes ◽

Greenhouse Gas Fluxes ◽

Climate Manipulation

The effects of 21st century climate change are projected to be most severe in the northern hemisphere, where the majority of peatlands are located. Peatlands represent important long-term terrestrial stores of carbon (C), containing an estimated c.600-1055GT C, despite covering only 3% of total land area globally. In addition, pristine peatlands act as net sinks of atmospheric CO2, imparting a negative feedback mechanism cooling global climate, whilst simultaneously acting as sources of CO2 and CH4. Peatlands remain net sinks of C as long as the rate of carbon sequestration exceeds that of decomposition. Projected changes in temperature, precipitation and other environmental variables threaten to disrupt this precarious balance, however, and the future direction of carbon feedback mechanisms are poorly understood, due to the complex nature of the peatland carbon cycle.&#160;Two methods are used in order to help understand future the carbon dynamics of peat bogs under climate change. These are experimental studies, which measure greenhouse gas fluxes under manipulated climatic and environmental conditions (warmer, drier), and palaeoecological studies, which examine the effects of past climate change upon carbon sequestration throughout the peat profile. However, both methods fundamentally contradict each other. Palaeoecological studies suggest that carbon accumulation increases during warming periods, whereas warming experiments observe greater carbon loss with increased temperature.&#160;The aim of this project is to link contemporary experimental and palaeoecological approaches to explain this discrepancy. This will be achieved by comparing greenhouse gas fluxes between plots which have been subjected to 10 years of passive warming and drought simulation at an experimental climate manipulation site on Cors Fochno, Ceredigion, Wales. Long term rates of carbon accumulation will be compared with net ecosystem contemporary carbon budgets from each plot. Surface samples from each plot will be analysed by a range of palaeoenvironmental proxies to test how well the climate manipulations are represented by each proxy. Finally, a high-resolution multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental reconstruction spanning the past 1000 years will be compared with reconstructions derived from short-cores from each plot covering the duration of the experiment from each treatment, to see how faithfully climate manipulation mirrors real periods of climate change.&#160;Understanding the future role of peatlands in future carbon sequestration and storage is of vital importance for modelling future climate change, in terms of both quantifying the potential ecosystem services peatlands may offer in mitigating the effects of climate change, as well as enhancing the predictive capabilities of global climate models. Currently, the uncertainty associated with peatland carbon cycling is such that peatlands are rarely included in global climate models.&#160;

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