Diffusion and benefits evaluation of electric vehicles under policy interventions based on a multiagent system dynamics model

2022 ◽  
Vol 309 ◽  
pp. 118430
Author(s):  
Jingjing Li ◽  
Victor Nian ◽  
Jianling Jiao
2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 831-850 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorgen Randers ◽  
Ulrich Golüke ◽  
Fred Wenstøp ◽  
Søren Wenstøp

Abstract. We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO (Earth System Climate Interpretable Model), which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have run many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around USD 1000 billion per year – around 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude (a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature – GMST – by up to 0.5 °C in 2050 and up to 1.0 °C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0 °C in a decade but creates other serious problems. We also conclude (b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2 °C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude (c) that run-away warming is unlikely to occur in this century but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3 °C above preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost. We call for research to test whether more complex climate models support our tentative conclusions from ESCIMO. Editorial note: Please note that the acronym for the software model described in the ESD paper is now recognized to be culturally insensitive and inappropriate. The editors of the journal ESD, the journal owner European Geosciences Union, and the publisher Copernicus Publications foster equality, diversity, and inclusiveness in scientific exchange, and do not condone in any way racism, discrimination, or cultural appropriation. The authors did not intend to insult any ethnic groups by using the acronym for this software model.


2013 ◽  
Vol 834-836 ◽  
pp. 2003-2008
Author(s):  
Jian Quan Xu ◽  
Yan Ping Yang ◽  
Ren Shu Yin

Currently the number of electric vehicles on road is still small, the main reasons are their high cost, poor economic returns, which lead to their weak market competitiveness. In this paper, a system dynamics model was built to compare the life cycle costs of the electric vehicles and the conventional vehicles using Vensim. The results show that by the second half of 2016, the electric vehicles will be more economical than the conventional vehicles, and with the passage of time and the progress of technologies, economic benefits of electric vehicles would be more significant, and then the electric vehicles market could enter a period of rapid development.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorgen Randers ◽  
Ulrich Golüke ◽  
Fred Wenstøp ◽  
Søren Wenstøp

Abstract. Abstract. We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO, which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have made many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around 1,000 billion US$ per year – around 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude (a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature – GMST – by up to 0.5 °C in 2050 and up to 1.0 °C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols in the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0 °C in a decade, but creates other serious problems. We also conclude (b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2 °C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude (c) that run-away warming is unlikely to occur in this century, but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3 °C over preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost. We call for research to test whether more complex climate models support our tentative conclusions from ESCIMO.


2010 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-62
Author(s):  
Patrick Einzinger ◽  
Günther Zauner ◽  
G. Ganjeizadeh-Rouhani

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document