Future climate impacts on forest growth and implications for carbon sequestration through reforestation in southeast Australia

AbstractUncertainty in long-term projections of future climate can be substantial and presents a major challenge to climate change adaptation planning. This is especially so for projections of future precipitation in most tropical regions, at the spatial scale of many adaptation decisions in water-related sectors. Attempts have been made to constrain the uncertainty in climate projections, based on the recognised premise that not all of the climate models openly available perform equally well. However, there is no agreed ‘good practice’ on how to weight climate models. Nor is it clear to what extent model weighting can constrain uncertainty in decision-relevant climate quantities. We address this challenge, for climate projection information relevant to ‘high stakes’ investment decisions across the ‘water-energy-food’ sectors, using two case-study river basins in Tanzania and Malawi. We compare future climate risk profiles of simple decision-relevant indicators for water-related sectors, derived using hydrological and water resources models, which are driven by an ensemble of future climate model projections. In generating these ensembles, we implement a range of climate model weighting approaches, based on context-relevant climate model performance metrics and assessment. Our case-specific results show the various model weighting approaches have limited systematic effect on the spread of risk profiles. Sensitivity to climate model weighting is lower than overall uncertainty and is considerably less than the uncertainty resulting from bias correction methodologies. However, some of the more subtle effects on sectoral risk profiles from the more ‘aggressive’ model weighting approaches could be important to investment decisions depending on the decision context. For application, model weighting is justified in principle, but a credible approach should be very carefully designed and rooted in robust understanding of relevant physical processes to formulate appropriate metrics.

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Turning the Big Knob: An Evaluation of the Use of Energy Policy to Modulate Future Climate Impacts

Energy & Environment ◽

10.1260/0958305001500121 ◽

2000 ◽

Vol 11 (3) ◽

pp. 255-275 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Roger A. Pielke ◽

Roberta Klein ◽

Daniel Sarewitz

Keyword(s):

Energy Policy ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Future Climate

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Environmental change impacts on the C- and N-cycle of European forests: a model comparison study

Biogeosciences ◽

10.5194/bg-10-1751-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 1751-1773 ◽

Cited By ~ 15

Author(s):

D. R. Cameron ◽

M. Van Oijen ◽

C. Werner ◽

K. Butterbach-Bahl ◽

R. Grote ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Central Europe ◽

Tree Species ◽

Carbon Sink ◽

N2o Emission ◽

Forest Growth ◽

N2o Emissions ◽

European Forests ◽

Considerable Uncertainty ◽

Carbon And Nitrogen

Abstract. Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon sink was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environmental change, in particular the response to changes in nitrogen and precipitation, with beech forest more vulnerable to drought. There was considerable uncertainty about the geographical location of N2O emissions. Two of the models BASFOR and LandscapeDNDC had largest emissions in central Europe where nitrogen deposition and soil nitrogen were largest, whereas the two other models identified different regions with large N2O emission. N2O emissions were found to be larger from beech than pine forests and were found to be particularly sensitive to forest growth.

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Investigating the climate impacts of urbanization and the potential for cool roofs to counter future climate change in Southern California

Environmental Research Letters ◽

10.1088/1748-9326/11/12/124027 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 11 (12) ◽

pp. 124027 ◽

Cited By ~ 33

Author(s):

P Vahmani ◽

F Sun ◽

A Hall ◽

G Ban-Weiss

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Southern California ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Cool Roofs

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Soil Carbon Modelling in Salix Biomass Plantations: Variety Determines Carbon Sequestration and Climate Impacts

Forests ◽

10.3390/f12111529 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (11) ◽

pp. 1529

Author(s):

Saurav Kalita ◽

Hanna Karlsson Potter ◽

Martin Weih ◽

Christel Baum ◽

Åke Nordberg ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Climate Change Mitigation ◽

Biomass Yield ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Carbon Modelling ◽

Sequestration Potential ◽

Determining Factor ◽

Change Mitigation

Short-rotation coppice (SRC) Salix plantations have the potential to provide fast-growing biomass feedstock with significant soil and climate mitigation benefits. Salix varieties exhibit significant variation in their physiological traits, growth patterns and soil ecology—but the effects of these variations have rarely been studied from a systems perspective. This study analyses the influence of variety on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and climate impacts from Salix cultivation for heat production for a Swedish site with specific conditions. Soil carbon modelling was combined with a life cycle assessment (LCA) approach to quantify SOC sequestration and climate impacts over a 50-year period. The analysis used data from a Swedish field trial of six Salix varieties grown under fertilized and unfertilized treatments on Vertic Cambisols during 2001–2018. The Salix systems were compared with a reference case where heat is produced from natural gas and green fallow was the land use alternative. Climate impacts were determined using time-dependent LCA methodology—on a land-use (per hectare) and delivered energy unit (per MJheat) basis. All Salix varieties and treatments increased SOC, but the magnitude depended on the variety. Fertilization led to lower carbon sequestration than the equivalent unfertilized case. There was no clear relationship between biomass yield and SOC increase. In comparison with reference cases, all Salix varieties had significant potential for climate change mitigation. From a land-use perspective, high yield was the most important determining factor, followed by SOC sequestration, therefore high-yielding fertilized varieties such as ‘Tordis’, ‘Tora’ and ‘Björn’ performed best. On an energy-delivered basis, SOC sequestration potential was the determining factor for the climate change mitigation effect, with unfertilized ‘Jorr’ and ‘Loden’ outperforming the other varieties. These results show that Salix variety has a strong influence on SOC sequestration potential, biomass yield, growth pattern, response to fertilization and, ultimately, climate impact.

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Characterization of European cities’ climate shift – an exploratory study based on climate analogues

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management ◽

10.1108/ijccsm-05-2017-0108 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (3) ◽

pp. 428-452

Author(s):

Guillaume Rohat ◽

Stéphane Goyette ◽

Johannes Flacke

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Urban Areas ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Public Health Services ◽

European Continent ◽

Content Type ◽

Climate Shift ◽

European Cities ◽

The Future

Purpose Climate analogues have been extensively used in ecological studies to assess the shift of ecoregions due to climate change and the associated impacts on species survival and displacement, but they have hardly been applied to urban areas and their climate shift. This paper aims to use climate analogues to characterize the climate shift of cities and to explore its implications as well as potential applications of this approach. Design/methodology/approach The authors propose a methodology to match the current climate of cities with the future climate of other locations and to characterize cities’ climate shift velocity. Employing a sample of 90 European cities, the authors demonstrate the applicability of this method and characterize their climate shift from 1951 to 2100. Findings Results show that cities’ climate shift follows rather strictly north-to-south transects over the European continent and that the average southward velocity is expected to double throughout the twenty-first century. These rapid shifts will have direct implications for urban infrastructure, risk management and public health services. Originality/value These findings appear to be potentially useful for raising awareness of stakeholders and urban dwellers about the pace, magnitude and dynamics of climate change, supporting identification of the future climate impacts and vulnerabilities and implementation of readily available adaptation options, and strengthening cities’ cooperation within climate-related networks.

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PLASIM-ENTSem: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment

Geoscientific Model Development Discussions ◽

10.5194/gmdd-6-3349-2013 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 3349-3380 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

P. B. Holden ◽

N. R. Edwards ◽

P. H. Garthwaite ◽

K. Fraedrich ◽

F. Lunkeit ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Radiative Forcing ◽

General Circulation ◽

Coupled Model ◽

Co2 Concentration ◽

General Circulation Models ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Data ◽

Spatio Temporal

Abstract. Many applications in the evaluation of climate impacts and environmental policy require detailed spatio-temporal projections of future climate. To capture feedbacks from impacted natural or socio-economic systems requires interactive two-way coupling but this is generally computationally infeasible with even moderately complex general circulation models (GCMs). Dimension reduction using emulation is one solution to this problem, demonstrated here with the GCM PLASIM-ENTS. Our approach generates temporally evolving spatial patterns of climate variables, considering multiple modes of variability in order to capture non-linear feedbacks. The emulator provides a 188-member ensemble of decadally and spatially resolved (~ 5° resolution) seasonal climate data in response to an arbitrary future CO2 concentration and radiative forcing scenario. We present the PLASIM-ENTS coupled model, the construction of its emulator from an ensemble of transient future simulations, an application of the emulator methodology to produce heating and cooling degree-day projections, and the validation of the results against empirical data and higher-complexity models. We also demonstrate the application to estimates of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty.

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