Revisiting the relations between Hurst exponent and fractional differencing parameter for long memory

2021 ◽  
Vol 566 ◽  
pp. 125603
Author(s):  
Liang Ding ◽  
Yi Luo ◽  
Yan Lin ◽  
Yirong Huang
Author(s):  
Luboš Střelec

This article deals with one of the important parts of applying chaos theory to financial and capital markets – namely searching for long memory effects in time series of financial instruments. Source data are daily closing prices of Central Europe stock market indices – Bratislava stock index (SAX), Budapest stock index (BUX), Prague stock index (PX) and Vienna stock index (ATX) – in the period from January 1998 to September 2007. For analysed data R/S analysis is used to calculate the Hurst exponent. On the basis of the Hurst exponent is characterized formation and behaviour of analysed financial time series. Computed Hurst exponent is also statistical compared with his expected value signalling independent process. It is also operated with 5-day returns (i.e. weekly returns) for the purposes of comparison and identification nonperiodic cycles.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (4) ◽  
pp. 467-492 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Kapetanios ◽  
Fotis Papailias ◽  
A. M. Robert Taylor

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (S340) ◽  
pp. 47-48
Author(s):  
V. Vipindas ◽  
Sumesh Gopinath ◽  
T. E. Girish

AbstractSolar Energetic Particles (SEPs) are high-energy particles ejected by the Sun which consist of protons, electrons and heavy ions having energies in the range of a few tens of keVs to several GeVs. The statistical features of the solar energetic particles (SEPs) during different periods of solar cycles are highly variable. In the present study we try to quantify the long-range dependence (or long-memory) of the solar energetic particles during different periods of solar cycle (SC) 23 and 24. For stochastic processes, long-range dependence or self-similarity is usually quantified by the Hurst exponent. We compare the Hurst exponent of SEP proton fluxes having energies (>1MeV to >100 MeV) for different periods, which include both solar maximum and minimum years, in order to find whether SC-dependent self-similarity exist for SEP flux.


2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josephine Dufitinema ◽  
Seppo Pynnönen

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the evidence of long-range dependence behaviour in both house price returns and volatility for fifteen main regions in Finland over the period of 1988:Q1 to 2018:Q4. These regions are divided geographically into 45 cities and sub-areas according to their postcode numbers. The studied type of dwellings is apartments (block of flats) divided into one-room, two-rooms, and more than three rooms apartments types. Design/methodology/approach For each house price return series, both parametric and semiparametric long memory approaches are used to estimate the fractional differencing parameter d in an autoregressive fractional integrated moving average [ARFIMA (p, d, q)] process. Moreover, for cities and sub-areas with significant clustering effects (autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity [ARCH] effects), the semiparametric long memory method is used to analyse the degree of persistence in the volatility by estimating the fractional differencing parameter d in both squared and absolute price returns. Findings A higher degree of predictability was found in all three apartments types price returns with the estimates of the long memory parameter constrained in the stationary and invertible interval, implying that the returns of the studied types of dwellings are long-term dependent. This high level of persistence in the house price indices differs from other assets, such as stocks and commodities. Furthermore, the evidence of long-range dependence was discovered in the house price volatility with more than half of the studied samples exhibiting long memory behaviour. Research limitations/implications Investigating the long memory behaviour in both returns and volatility of the house prices is crucial for investment, risk and portfolio management. One reason is that the evidence of long-range dependence in the housing market returns suggests a high degree of predictability of the asset. The other reason is that the presence of long memory in the housing market volatility aids in the development of appropriate time series volatility forecasting models in this market. The study outcomes will be used in modelling and forecasting the volatility dynamics of the studied types of dwellings. The quality of the data limits the analysis and the results of the study. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first research that assesses the long memory behaviour in the Finnish housing market. Also, it is the first study that evaluates the volatility of the Finnish housing market using data on both municipal and geographical level.


2008 ◽  
Vol 387 (22) ◽  
pp. 5543-5551 ◽  
Author(s):  
M.A. Sánchez Granero ◽  
J.E. Trinidad Segovia ◽  
J. García Pérez

Author(s):  
A. I. Chukwunezu ◽  
B. O. Osu ◽  
C. Olunkwa ◽  
C. N. Obi

The classical Black-Scholes equation driven by Brownian motion has no memory, therefore it is proper to replace the Brownian motion with fractional Brownian motion (FBM) which has long-memory due to the presence of the Hurst exponent. In this paper, the option pricing equation modeled by fractional Brownian motion is obtained. It is further reduced to a one-dimensional heat equation using Fourier transform and then a solution is obtained by applying the convolution theorem.


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