The impact of the epidemic experience on the recovery of production of pig farmers after the outbreak-Evidence from the impact of African swine fever (ASF) in Chinese pig farming

Author(s):  
Xu Ge ◽  
Apurbo Sarkar ◽  
Qian Lu ◽  
Zhang Shuxia ◽  
Md. Ashfikur Rahman ◽  
...  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5114
Author(s):  
Hyung-Chul Rah ◽  
Hyeon-Woong Kim ◽  
Aziz Nasridinov ◽  
Wan-Sup Cho ◽  
Seo-Hwa Choi ◽  
...  

In this paper we demonstrate the threshold effects of infectious diseases on livestock prices. Daily retail prices of pork and chicken were used as structured data; news and SNS mentions of African Swine Fever (ASF) and Avian Influenza (AI) were used as unstructured data. Models were tested for the threshold effects of disease-related news and SNS frequencies, specifically those related to ASF and AI, on the retail prices of pork and chicken, respectively. The effects were found to exist, and the values of ASF-related news on pork prices were estimated to be −9 and 8, indicating that the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model can be divided into three regimes. The coefficients of the ASF-related SNS frequencies on pork prices were 1.1666, 0.2663 and −0.1035 for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively, suggesting that pork prices increased by 1.1666 Korean won in regime 1 when ASF-related SNS frequencies increased. To promote pork consumption by SNS posts, the required SNS frequencies were estimated to have impacts as great as one standard deviation in the pork price. These values were 247.057, 1309.158 and 2817.266 for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. The impact response periods for pork prices were estimated to last 48, 6, and 8 days for regimes 1, 2 and 3, respectively. When the prediction accuracies of the TAR and autoregressive (AR) models with regard to pork prices were compared for the root mean square error, the prediction accuracy of the TAR model was found to be slightly better than that of the AR. When the threshold effect of AI-related news on chicken prices was tested, a linear relationship appeared without a threshold effect. These findings suggest that when infectious diseases such as ASF occur for the first time, the impact on livestock prices is significant, as indicated by the threshold effect and the long impact response period. Our findings also suggest that the impact on livestock prices is not remarkable when infectious diseases occur multiple times, as in the case of AI. To date, this study is the first to suggest the use of SNS to promote meat consumption.


Pathogens ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Jutta Pikalo ◽  
Paul Deutschmann ◽  
Melina Fischer ◽  
Hanna Roszyk ◽  
Martin Beer ◽  
...  

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a hemorrhagic disease in pigs with high socio-economic consequences. To lower the impact of disease incursions, early detection is crucial. In the context of experimental animal trials, we evaluated diagnostic workflows for a high sample throughput in active surveillance, alternative sample matrices for passive surveillance, and lateral flow devices (LFD) for rapid testing. We could demonstrate that EDTA blood is significantly better suited for early ASFV detection than serum. Tissues recommended by the respective diagnostic manuals were in general comparable in their performance, with spleen samples giving best results. Superficial lymph nodes, ear punches, and different blood swabs were also evaluated as potential alternatives. In summary, all matrices yielded positive results at the peak of clinical signs and could be fit for purpose in passive surveillance. However, weaknesses were discovered for some matrices when it comes to the early phase of infection or recovery. The antigen LFD showed variable results with best performance in the clinical phase. The antibody LFD was quite comparable with ELISA systems. Concluding, alternative approaches are feasible but have to be embedded in control strategies selecting test methods and sample materials following a “fit-for-purpose” approach.


2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (13) ◽  
pp. 2787-2796 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. P. NIELSEN ◽  
T. S. LARSEN ◽  
T. HALASA ◽  
L. E. CHRISTIANSEN

SUMMARYThe spread of African swine fever virus (ASFV) threatens to reach further parts of Europe. In countries with a large swine production, an outbreak of ASF may result in devastating economic consequences for the swine industry. Simulation models can assist decision makers setting up contingency plans. This creates a need for estimation of parameters. This study presents a new analysis of a previously published study. A full likelihood framework is presented including the impact of model assumptions on the estimated transmission parameters. As animals were only tested every other day, an interpretation was introduced to cover the weighted infectiousness on unobserved days for the individual animals (WIU). Based on our model and the set of assumptions, the within- and between-pen transmission parameters were estimated to βw = 1·05 (95% CI 0·62–1·72), βb = 0·46 (95% CI 0·17–1·00), respectively, and the WIU = 1·00 (95% CI 0–1). Furthermore, we simulated the spread of ASFV within a pig house using a modified SEIR-model to establish the time from infection of one animal until ASFV is detected in the herd. Based on a chosen detection limit of 2·55% equivalent to 10 dead pigs out of 360, the disease would be detected 13–19 days after introduction.


Author(s):  
Noluvuyo R. Magadla ◽  
Wilna Vosloo ◽  
Livio Heath ◽  
Bruce Gummow

African swine fever (ASF) has been reported in South Africa since the early 20th century. The disease has been controlled and confined to northern South Africa over the past 80 years by means of a well-defined boundary line, with strict control measures and movement restrictions north of this line. In 2012, the first outbreak of ASF outside the ASF control zone since 1996 occurred. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current relevance of the ASF control line as a demarcation line between endemic ASF (north) areas and ASF-free (south) area and to determine whether there was a need to realign its trajectory, given the recent outbreaks of ASF, global climate changes and urban development since the line’s inception. A study of ASF determinants was conducted in an area 20 km north and 20 km south of the ASF control line, in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West and Gauteng provinces between May 2008 and September 2012. The study confirmed that warthogs, warthog burrows and the soft tick reservoir, Ornithodoros moubata, are present south of the ASF control line, but no virus or viral DNA was detected in these ticks. There appears to be an increasing trend in the diurnal maximum temperature and a decrease in humidity along the line, but the impact of these changes is uncertain. No discernible changes in minimum temperatures and average rainfall along the disease control line were observed between 1992 and 2014. Even though the reservoirs were found south of the ASF boundary line, the study concluded that there was no need to realign the trajectory of the ASF disease control line, with the exception of Limpopo Province. However, the provincial surveillance programmes for the reservoir, vector and ASF virus south of this line needs to be maintained and intensified as changing farming practices may favour the spread of ASF virus beyond the control line.Keywords: African swine fever; warthog burrow; Ornithodoros moubata;control line


2018 ◽  
Vol 18(33) (3) ◽  
pp. 306-314
Author(s):  
Mirosława Tereszczuk

The aim of the study is to assess the impact of African swine fever virus (ASF) on the development and functioning of the pork market in Poland. This virus appeared in Poland in February 2014 in wild boars, and then in July 2014 in pigs. The study covers the years 2014-2018, the period of ASF virus in Poland. By the end of July 2018, there were 182 cases of ASF in pigs and over 2.6 thousand in wild boars in four provinces of eastern and central Poland, and the largest cluster of this disease is located in the Lublin province. The appearance of ASF virus has had a negative impact on the pork market in Poland, resulting in restrictions on the export of this meat, costs of eradication of outbreaks and biosecurity. Despite these difficulties, the production of pork at this time was characterized by an upward trend, while exports only in the first year of the ASF decreased, but in subsequent years, due to the diversification of markets, there was an increase in exports. The descriptive method and simple statistical analyzes were used for the study.


2020 ◽  
Vol 20(35) (3) ◽  
pp. 53-65
Author(s):  
Robert Mroczek

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of SARS-CoV-2 virus on the meat market in Poland. The meat market is an important part of the Polish economy. Production of slaughter animals (pork, beef and poultry) accounts for over 1/3 of agricultural commodity production, and the meat industry (red meat and poultry) is the largest branch of food processing. The COVID-19 pandemic, which also reached Poland, did not significantly shake this market. A sign of the introduced restrictions in social and economic life was a short-term massive purchase of food with an extended shelf life. Lockdown slightly changed the eating and shopping habits of Poles. In the first half of 2020, exports of beef and poultry decreased by 3-5%, and exports of pork decreased by 28% compared to the first half of 2019. The meat market continued to struggle with African Swine Fever (ASF) and, in addition, with bird flu. The HoReCa segment was the most affected part of the market.


2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Huy Duc Dang ◽  
Giang Thanh Tran

Purpose. The aim of this paper is to explain a consumers’ intention for traceable food in the context of the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak, in order to provide scientific knowledge for the government’s intervention to mitigate the perceived risk and to promote the development of traceable food. Methodology. This research employed an extended theory of planned behavior (TPB) model in predicting purchase intention/attitude toward traceable pork. The structural equation analysis (SEM) was used on a sample of 230 students in Vietnam. Findings. The current context of food safety issues, as well as animal disease outbreak, is beneficial to direct consumption toward traceable products. Heterogeneous impacts of trust were confirmed on how consumers perceived risks associated with the ASF outbreak. Consumers’ habits of shopping places and looking for the product origin incite the positive attitude toward traceable pork. Food safety concerns also promoted a positive purchase attitude. Originality/Value. The study’s objective is first to equip knowledge regarding the consumers’ intention toward traceable food under the impact of animal disease, particularly in the context of food safety issues in Vietnam. Extended knowledge promotes tailored policies to regain consumers’ confidence and facilitate the development of traceable food.


Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 116
Author(s):  
Mary-Louise Penrith ◽  
Armanda Bastos ◽  
Erika Chenais

The spectacular recent spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe and Asia has been strongly associated, as it is in the endemic areas in Africa, with free-ranging pig populations and low-biosecurity backyard pig farming. Managing the disease in wild boar populations and in circumstances where the disease in domestic pigs is largely driven by poverty is particularly challenging and may remain so even in the presence of effective vaccines. The only option currently available to prevent ASF is strict biosecurity. Among small-scale pig farmers biosecurity measures are often considered unaffordable or impossible to implement. However, as outbreaks of ASF are also unaffordable, the adoption of basic biosecurity measures is imperative to achieve control and prevent losses. Biosecurity measures can be adapted to fit smallholder contexts, culture and costs. A longer-term approach that could prove valuable particularly for free-ranging pig populations would be exploitation of innate resistance to the virus, which is fully effective in wild African suids and has been observed in some domestic pig populations in areas of prolonged endemicity. We explore available options for preventing ASF in terms of feasibility, practicality and affordability among domestic pig populations that are at greatest risk of exposure to ASF.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 8123-8148
Author(s):  
Yihao Huang ◽  
◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Juan Zhang ◽  
Zhen Jin ◽  
...  

<abstract><p>Pork makes up the highest proportion of household expenditure on meat in China and supply and demand have been basically stable in the past decade. However, the catastrophic outbreak of African swine fever (ASF) in August 2018 disrupted the balance and reduced the national herd by half within six months. The consequence was a gross lack of supply to the market and consumer demand was unable to be met. Accordingly, live pig prices rose sharply from 2019. In order to assess the influence of ASF on the price of the live pigs, we use a price function to characterize the relationship between price of the live pigs and the nation's pig stock, and then establish a time delay ASF epidemic dynamical model with the price function. By analyzing the dynamical behaviors of the model, we calculate the basic reproductive number, discuss the stability of equilibrium, and obtain the critical conditions for Hopf bifurcation. The model reasonableness is confirmed by carrying out data fitting and parameter estimation based on price data of the live pigs, the pig stock data and the outbreak data of ASF. By performing sensitivity analysis, we intuitively show the impact of ASF on the price of live pigs and the pig stocks, and assess the key factors affecting the outbreak of ASF. The conclusion is drawn that, with the control measures adopted by related government department in China, the basic reproductive number ($ R_0 = 0.6005 $) means that the ASF epidemic has been controlled. Moreover, the price of the live pig increases linearly with $ R_0 $, while the effect of the number of infected pigs on the subsequent price is non-linear related. Our findings suggest that society and the government should pay more attention to the prevention of animal disease epidemics.</p></abstract>


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