Climate change impact on major crop yield and water footprint under CMIP6 climate projections in repeated drought and flood areas in Thailand

2021 ◽  
pp. 150741
Author(s):  
Noppol Arunrat ◽  
Sukanya Sereenonchai ◽  
Winai Chaowiwat ◽  
Can Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Drought And Flood ◽  
Change Impact

scholarly journals Fine-resolution climate projections enhance regional climate change impact studies

Eos ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 88 (47) ◽  
pp. 504-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edwin P. Maurer ◽  
Levi Brekke ◽  
Tom Pruitt ◽  
Philip B. Duffy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Fine Resolution

scholarly journals Contribution of crop model structure, parameters and climate projections to uncertainty in climate change impact assessments

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1291-1307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fulu Tao ◽  
Reimund P. Rötter ◽  
Taru Palosuo ◽  
Carlos Gregorio Hernández Díaz‐Ambrona ◽  
M. Inés Mínguez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Structure Parameters ◽  
Model Structure ◽  
Change Impact

scholarly journals DAMPAK PERUBAHAN IKLIM DAN STRATEGI ADAPTASI TANAMAN BUAH DAN SAYURAN DI DAERAH TROPIS / Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Srategy for Vegetable and Fruit Crops in the Tropic Region

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 65
Author(s):  
Yeli Sarvina
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Tropical Region ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Fruit Crops ◽  
Extreme Climate ◽  
Circular Model ◽  
Change Impact

<p>Climate change has significant negative impact on agriculture in tropical region. Inrecent years, research on climate change has focused mainly on food crops while horticultural crops have received little attention. This paper is an overview of Indonesian future climate projection for precipitation, temperature and extreme climate, climate change impact and adaptation strategies on vegetable and fruit crops and future challenge for horticultural development under climate change. The climate change will decrease crop productivity and quality, increase the incidence of new pest and disease, and the outbreaks on vegetable and fruit crops. Further climate change will disrupt water availability, alter climate-crop suitability and cause crop failure due to extreme climate. Several adaptation measures have been developed in farming system, among other adjustment of planting time, using resistant varieties to environmental strees, adopting irrigation technology for efficient water use, using green house and increasing farmers and extention service capacity through climate field school. For future research it is necessary to assess climate projections with several scenarios and Global Circular Models (GCMs) and their impact on future vegetable and fruits crops by developing crop modeling which should be given a priority of in agriculture. This information crucially needed for adaptation strategy and a long term agricultural planning in the future.</p><p>Keywords: Vegetable, fruit, climate change, global circular model, adaptation </p><p> </p><p><strong>Abstrak</strong></p><p>Perubahan iklim berdampak negatif terhadap pertanian di daerah tropis. Selama ini penelitian dampak perubahan iklim terhadap pertanian lebih banyak dilakukan pada tanaman pangan, sementara pada tanaman hortikultura, khususnya sayuran dan buah-buahan masih terbatas. Tulisan ini merupakan tinjauan tentang proyeksi dampak perubahan iklim di Indonesia yang meliputi curah hujan, suhu udara, dan iklim ekstrim terhadap produksi tanaman buah dan sayuran, di samping berbagai upaya adaptasi yang telah dilakukan dan tantangan pembangunan hortikultura ke depan. Perubahan iklim pada tanaman sayuran dan buah-buahan terbukti menurunkan kuantitas dan kualitas produksi, munculnya hama penyakit baru, meningkatnya serangan hama dan penyakit, gagal panen, penurunan kapasitas air irigasi, perubahan kesesuian lahan dan tanaman. Beberapa langkah adaptasi yang sudah dilakukan yaitu penyesuaian sistem usaha tani yang meliputi penggunaan varietas toleran cekaman lingkungan, penyesuian waktu tanam, penggunaan teknik irigasi hemat air, pengembangan teknologi pencarian sumber daya air baru, penggunaan rumah kasa/rumah plastik, peningkatan kemampuan petani dan penyuluh dalam memahami perubahan iklim melalui sekolah lapang. Ke depan masih perlu dilakukan kajian proyeksi iklim dengan berbagai skenario dan berbagai Global circular model (GCM) serta kajian dampak perubahan iklim terhadap tanaman sayur dan buah unggulan melalui pengembangan pemodelan sistem usaha tani. Informasi proyeksi dampak perubahan iklim diperlukan sebagai upaya adaptasi dan perencanaan pembangunan pertanian yang dikaitkan dengan perubahan iklim.</p><p>Kata kunci: Buah-buahan, sayuran, perubahan iklim, global circular model, adaptasi </p>

scholarly journals Future changes in hydrological extremes of a Mediterranean catchment: what can we say in an uncertainty context?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lila Collet ◽  
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Juraj Parajka ◽  
Guillaume Evin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Change Impact

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The Mediterranean region is a hot spot for climate change impact on the water cycle where water resources are anticipated to decrease and hydrological extremes to intensify while population and water use conflicts growth would keep rising. However, the analysis of the uncertainty related to hydrological projections is generally poorly quantified and difficult to translate to decision-makers. In this study, an in-depth analysis of projections and uncertainties for extreme high- and low-flows was performed. Climatic projections derived from a recent downscaling method over France (Adamont, Verfaillie et al., 2017) were used, and hydrological projections were produced on the H&amp;#233;rault River catchment based on two different Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM) couples, three hydrological models (HMs), and twenty-nine calibration schemes (Lemaitre-Basset et al., sub). This ensemble was analysed with the QUALYPSO approach (Evin et al., 2019) that allows transient uncertainty analysis of ensembles derived from incomplete GCM/RCM matrix. The quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) used in QUALYPSO evaluates the contribution of each impact modelling step to the total uncertainty. For high-flows, GCMs and RCPs contribute the most to the total uncertainty at the short and long lead-time, respectively. For low-flows, HMs structure and calibration period are the most important sources of uncertainty across 2006-2100. While high-flow projections show a significant mean increase of 30% by 2085 compared to the historical period (confidence intervals: [-1%; +64%]), low-flows would slightly decrease (-7%) by 2085, but with a higher uncertainty (confidence interval: [-24%; +13%]). The time horizons for which a change (e.g. -50, -20, -10, &amp;#8230;, +10, +20, +50%) in high- and low-flows intensity becomes robust (i.e. when more than 66% of the ensemble is above/below a given threshold) were also assessed. This provides strong messages to water managers of the H&amp;#233;rault River catchment who can then anticipate the time needed to prepare and adapt to climate change impacts for extreme hydrological hazards.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;References:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Evin, G., Hingray, B., Blanchet, J., Eckert, N., Morin, S., &amp; Verfaillie, D. (2019). Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 32, 18. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0606.1&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Lemaitre-Basset, T., Collet, L., Thirel, G., Parajka, J., Evin, G., Hingray, B. (submitted) Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis on hydrological extremes in a Mediterranean catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Verfaillie, D., D&amp;#233;qu&amp;#233;, M., Morin, S., &amp; Lafaysse, M. (2017). The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(11), 4257&amp;#8211;4283. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017&lt;/p&gt;

The impact of climate change on urban transport resilience in a changing world

2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 448-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Jaroszweski ◽  
Elizabeth Hooper ◽  
Lee Chapman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Urban Transport ◽  
Transport Systems ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

The assessment of the potential impact of climate change on transport is an area of research very much in its infancy, and one that requires input from a multitude of disciplines including geography, engineering and technology, meteorology, climatology and futures studies. This paper investigates the current state of the art for assessments on urban surface transport, where rising populations and increasing dependence on efficient and reliable mobility have increased the importance placed on resilience to weather. The standard structure of climate change impact assessment (CIA) requires understanding in three important areas: how weather currently affects infrastructure and operations; how climate change may alter the frequency and magnitude of these impacts; and how concurrent technological and socio-economic development may shape the transport network of the future, either ameliorating or exacerbating the effects of climate change. The extent to which the requisite knowledge exists for a successful CIA is observed to decrease from the former to the latter. This paper traces a number of developments in the extrapolation of physical and behavioural relationships on to future climates, including a broad move away from previous deterministic methods and towards probabilistic projections which make use of a much broader range of climate change model output, giving a better representation of the uncertainty involved. Studies increasingly demand spatially and temporally downscaled climate projections that can represent realistic sub-daily fluctuations in weather that transport systems are sensitive to. It is recommended that future climate change impact assessments should focus on several key areas, including better representation of sub-daily extremes in climate tools, and recreation of realistic spatially coherent weather. Greater use of the increasing amounts of data created and captured by ‘intelligent infrastructure’ and ‘smart cities’ is also needed to develop behavioural and physical models of the response of transport to weather and to develop a better understanding of how stakeholders respond to probabilistic climate change impact projections.

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