scholarly journals Eliciting Beliefs as Distributions in Online Surveys

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Lucas Leemann ◽  
Lukas F. Stoetzer ◽  
Richard Traunmüller

Abstract Citizens’ beliefs about uncertain events are fundamental variables in many areas of political science. While beliefs are often conceptualized in the form of distributions, obtaining reliable measures in terms of full probability densities is a difficult task. In this letter, we ask if there is an effective way of eliciting beliefs as distributions in the context of online surveys. Relying on experimental evidence, we evaluate the performance of five different elicitation methods designed to capture citizens’ uncertain expectations. Our results suggest that an elicitation method originally proposed by Manski (2009) performs well. It measures average citizens’ subjective belief distributions reliably and is easily implemented in the context of regular (online) surveys. We expect that a wider use of this method will lead to considerable improvements in the study of citizens’ expectations and beliefs.

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (34) ◽  
pp. e2105710118
Author(s):  
Gal Smitizsky ◽  
Wendy Liu ◽  
Uri Gneezy

In this paper, we investigate how individuals make time–money tradeoffs in labor contexts in which they are either asked to work to earn money or to pay money to avoid work. Theory predicts that exchange rates between time and money are invariant to the elicitation method. Results from our experiments, however, show otherwise, highlighting inconsistencies in how individuals consider their time. In the first two experiments, participants work to earn money, and we compare two incentivized elicitation methods. In the first, “Fixed-Time mode,” we fix the amount of time participants need to work and elicit the minimum dollar amount they require to do the job. In the second, “Fixed-Money mode,” we fix the amount of money we pay participants and ask for the maximum amount of time they are willing to work for that pay. We similarly vary elicitation procedures in Experiment 3 for paying money to avoid work. Translating the results into pay per hour, we find that in Fixed-Time mode, valuation of time is stable across durations, based on an analytical approach. By contrast, in Fixed-Money mode, participants increase their pay-per-hour demand when the amount of money increases, indicating a less calculated and more emotional view of time. Our results demonstrate that individuals’ value of their time of labor can be fluid and dependent on the compensation structure. Our findings have implications for theories of time valuation in the labor market.


2008 ◽  
Vol 24 (04) ◽  
pp. 481-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebekah R. Heinzen ◽  
John F. P. Bridges

Objectives:To compare four contingent valuation elicitation methods as a means to estimate the value of a pneumococcal vaccine in Bangladesh and to test if the elicitation methods are subject to bias and if they produce valid responses.Methods:Three hundred sixty-one households with at least one child under 5 years of age were recruited in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Subjects were cluster-randomized to various elicitation methods: open-ended, dichotomous choice (at one of two asking prices), payment card (one of two cards with differing ranges). The dichotomous choice method was then followed up with a bidding game methodology, with the dichotomous choice price acting as the starting price for the bidding game. Analysis focused on summary statistics, demand curve estimation and multivariate regression analysis to test for validity and bias.Results:Thirty-one households refused to participate, leaving a total of 330 participating households (a 91.4 percent response rate). Willingness to pay estimates varied significantly across the methods (p< .001), with average estimates varying between $2.34 and $18 (US). The open-ended elicitation method was found to produce highly inflated values that were insensitive to construct validity tests. The dichotomous choice method produced quantity (demand) estimates rather than value estimates, and there was some evidence of yea saying. The payment card elicitation method was found to be affected by range bias. The bidding game elicitation method was found to be less sensitive to starting point bias and yea-saying.Conclusions:Different elicitation format do give rise to different demand curves; however, this may be partially due to the fact that they do not measure the same outcome. For example, the dichotomous choice format produces a demand curve, while the payment card, open-ended and bidding game produce inverse demand curves. All formats are prone to multiple biases. When choosing an elicitation format, it is important to first consider the purpose and use of the data. Each elicitation method has strengths and weaknesses and can be used for different purposes in technology assessment.


2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (06) ◽  
pp. 1299-1330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aron Larsson ◽  
Mona Riabacke ◽  
Mats Danielson ◽  
Love Ekenberg

Weight elicitation methods in multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are often cognitively demanding, require too much precision, time and effort. Some of the issues may be remedied by connecting elicitation methods to an inference engine facilitating a quick and easy method for decision-makers to use weaker input statements, yet being able to utilize these statements in a method for decision evaluation. In this paper, we propose a fast and practically useful weight elicitation method, answering to many of the requirements. The method builds on the ideas of rank-order methods, but can also take imprecise cardinal information into account. The method is subsequently employed in two real-life case studies and compared to a case where a simple ratio weight procedure using exact input statements was employed.


Author(s):  
Samantha Harper ◽  
Stephen Dorton

Mental models describe an internal representation of knowledge of an individual or group, which can be used to interpret interactions with their environment and provide insight into decision-making strategies and prediction of performance. There are several ways to elicit mental models and analyze them; however, there is little guidance for selecting an appropriate elicitation method. Depending on different constraints of research and desired outcomes, different elicitation methods are more appropriate than others. Three criteria were identified as useful for selecting an appropriate elicitation method. These were the interaction level with participants, the number of participants being evaluated, and the resulting level of analytical detail that is required. A process for selecting the most appropriate mental model elicitation method is herein presented. Additionally, an overview of the factors that affect the selection of the mental models, and the different types of mental models are also presented.


2019 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olya Hakobyan ◽  
Sen Cheng

Abstract We fully support dissociating the subjective experience from the memory contents in recognition memory, as Bastin et al. posit in the target article. However, having two generic memory modules with qualitatively different functions is not mandatory and is in fact inconsistent with experimental evidence. We propose that quantitative differences in the properties of the memory modules can account for the apparent dissociation of recollection and familiarity along anatomical lines.


1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 437-442
Author(s):  
Salvatore Di Bernardo ◽  
Romana Fato ◽  
Giorgio Lenaz

AbstractOne of the peculiar aspects of living systems is the production and conservation of energy. This aspect is provided by specialized organelles, such as the mitochondria and chloroplasts, in developed living organisms. In primordial systems lacking specialized enzymatic complexes the energy supply was probably bound to the generation and maintenance of an asymmetric distribution of charged molecules in compartmentalized systems. On the basis of experimental evidence, we suggest that lipophilic quinones were involved in the generation of this asymmetrical distribution of charges through vectorial redox reactions across lipid membranes.


Author(s):  
Michael T. Bucek ◽  
Howard J. Arnott

It is believed by the authors, with supporting experimental evidence, that as little as 0.5°, or less, knife clearance angle may be a critical factor in obtaining optimum quality ultrathin sections. The degree increments located on the knife holder provides the investigator with only a crude approximation of the angle at which the holder is set. With the increments displayed on the holder one cannot set the clearance angle precisely and reproducibly. The ability to routinely set this angle precisely and without difficulty would obviously be of great assistance to the operator. A device has been contrived to aid the investigator in precisely setting the clearance angle. This device is relatively simple and is easily constructed. It consists of a light source and an optically flat, front surfaced mirror with a minute black spot in the center. The mirror is affixed to the knife by placing it permanently on top of the knife holder.


Author(s):  
H. Mohri

In 1959, Afzelius observed the presence of two rows of arms projecting from each outer doublet microtubule of the so-called 9 + 2 pattern of cilia and flagella, and suggested a possibility that the outer doublet microtubules slide with respect to each other with the aid of these arms during ciliary and flagellar movement. The identification of the arms as an ATPase, dynein, by Gibbons (1963)strengthened this hypothesis, since the ATPase-bearing heads of myosin molecules projecting from the thick filaments pull the thin filaments by cross-bridge formation during muscle contraction. The first experimental evidence for the sliding mechanism in cilia and flagella was obtained by examining the tip patterns of molluscan gill cilia by Satir (1965) who observed constant length of the microtubules during ciliary bending. Further evidence for the sliding-tubule mechanism was given by Summers and Gibbons (1971), using trypsin-treated axonemal fragments of sea urchin spermatozoa. Upon the addition of ATP, the outer doublets telescoped out from these fragments and the total length reached up to seven or more times that of the original fragment. Thus, the arms on a certain doublet microtubule can walk along the adjacent doublet when the doublet microtubules are disconnected by digestion of the interdoublet links which connect them with each other, or the radial spokes which connect them with the central pair-central sheath complex as illustrated in Fig. 1. On the basis of these pioneer works, the sliding-tubule mechanism has been established as one of the basic mechanisms for ciliary and flagellar movement.


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