scholarly journals Estimated varicella incidence on the basis of a seroprevalence survey

2001 ◽  
Vol 127 (3) ◽  
pp. 501-507 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. P. MUÑOZ ◽  
A. DOMÍNGUEZ ◽  
L. SALLERAS
Keyword(s):  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Delta Method ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Varicella Zoster ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Seroprevalence Data

Varicella is a disease caused by varicella-zoster virus. It is transmitted via the respiratory route, is highly communicable and mainly affects young children. An effective vaccine is now available, whose routine use is advised by health authorities in the USA and which can prevent severe disease, although breakthrough infections do occur. In deciding whether or not to include a vaccine in the routine vaccination schedule, knowledge of the morbidity of the disease in question is fundamental. Although reporting of varicella is compulsory in Catalonia, doctors only have to report the weekly number of cases diagnosed, and not their age distribution. Given that recent data on the prevalence of the infection in Catalonia according to age groups is available, it was considered that, using these data, an estimation of age-related incidence could be made.The objective of the present study was to estimate the incidence of varicella in Catalonia on the basis of the available seroprevalence data. A curve was fitted to the observed prevalence and point prevalence estimates for all ages were obtained. The incidence was derived by smoothed prevalence for each of these age groups. Estimated variance of the estimated incidence was obtained by the delta method. Predicted prevalence in the 0–4 years age group was calculated by the smoothed prevalence.The model that best fitted the sample prevalence was the exponential function. The estimated number of varicella cases in this study was 46419 (95% CI 40507–52270). As the population in Catalonia in 1996 was 6090040, the previous results give an incidence rate of 762·2 per 100000 persons/year with their 95% CI (666·1–858·3).The method described may be applied to the study of incidence rates in relation to the prevalence of diseases if we accept that the infection produces permanent immunity; the risk of mortality is the same for infected and non-infected subjects and that the disease incidence and population remain constant in time.

scholarly journals PedMap: a pediatric diseases map generated from clinical big data from Hangzhou, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haomin Li ◽  
Gang Yu ◽  
Cong Dong ◽  
Zheng Jia ◽  
Jiye An ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Disease Epidemiology ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
Pediatric Diseases ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Gaussian Regression ◽  
Occurrence Patterns

AbstractEpidemiological knowledge of pediatric diseases may improve professionals’ understanding of the pathophysiology of and risk factors for diseases and is also crucial for decision making related to workforce and resource planning in pediatric departments. In this study, a pediatric disease epidemiology knowledgebase called PedMap (http://pedmap.nbscn.org) was constructed from the clinical data from 5 447 202 outpatient visits of 2 189 868 unique patients at a children’s hospital (Hangzhou, China) from 2013 to 2016. The top 100 most-reported pediatric diseases were identified and visualized. These common pediatric diseases were clustered into 4 age groups and 4 seasons. The prevalence, age distribution and co-occurrence diseases for each disease were also visualized. Furthermore, an online prediction tool based on Gaussian regression models was developed to predict pediatric disease incidence based on weather information. PedMap is the first comprehensive epidemiological resource to show the full view of age-related, seasonal, climate-related variations in and co-occurrence patterns of pediatric diseases.

Changing Trends in Age and Sex Distributions of Lyme Disease—United States, 1992-2016

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110267
Author(s):  
Kiersten J. Kugeler ◽  
Paul S. Mead ◽  
Amy M. Schwartz ◽  
Alison F. Hinckley
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Lyme Disease ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Relative Size ◽  
The United States ◽  
Male Predominance ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Age And Sex

Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States and is characterized by a bimodal age distribution and male predominance. We examined trends in reported cases during a 25-year period to describe changes in the populations most affected by Lyme disease in the United States. We examined demographic characteristics of people with confirmed cases of Lyme disease reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 1992-2016 through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. We grouped cases into 5-year periods (1992-1996, 1997-2001, 2002-2006, 2007-2011, 2012-2016). We calculated the average annual incidence by age and sex and used incidence rate ratios (IRRs) to describe changes in Lyme disease incidence by age and sex over time. We converted patient age at time of illness into patient birth year to ascertain disease patterns according to birth cohorts. The incidence of Lyme disease in the United States doubled from 1992-1996 to 2012-2016 (IRR = 1.74; 95% CI, 1.70-1.78) and increased disproportionately among males; IRRs were 39%-89% higher among males than among females for most age groups. During the study period, children aged 5-9 years were most frequently and consistently affected. In contrast, the average age of adults with Lyme disease increased over time; of all adults, people born during 1950-1964 were the most affected by Lyme disease. Our findings suggest that age-related behaviors and susceptibilities may drive infections among children, and the shifting peak among adults likely reflects a probability proportional to the relative size of the baby boom population. These findings can inform targeted and efficient public health education and intervention efforts.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of ovarian cancer in Kazakhstan (2013-2018)

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 9-11
Author(s):  
E. K. Kukubasov ◽  
A. R. Satanova ◽  
R. O. Bolatbekova ◽  
D. B. Kaldibekov ◽  
А. А. Kurmanova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ovarian Cancer ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Malignant Tumors ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Preventative Measures ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Working Age ◽  
East Kazakhstan ◽  
The Republic

Relevance: According to Globocan 2018, ovarian cancer (OC) ranks 18th among all other cancers affecting women around the world. More than 295,414 new cases of OC were reported only in 2018. The incidence is low in Western Europe and is high in Latvia, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Russia, and Kazakhstan. In 2018, ovarian malignancies ranked 8th (3.1%) in Kazakhstan among all malignant tumors. At that, there are no clearly recognized preventative measures to ensure the early detection of OC. 70% of ovarian malignancies are detected at stage III-IV. The purpose of this study was to conduct a comparative analysis and assessment of the dynamics of the prevalence of OC in the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2013-2018. Results: The analysis of age-related OC incidence in Kazakhstan showed the presence of ovarian malignancies in all age groups, with a marked increase by the age of 65-69 years. The majority of patients were women of the working age. Differences were found in the incidence rates by regions of the country. In the study period, the incidence was high in Qostanai, Pavlodar, and North Kazakhstan regions (northern part of the country) and Almaty. The incidence was below the national average in Atyrau, Jambyl, and South Kazakhstan regions (southern and western parts of the country). Recent years have witnessed a sharp increase in OC incidence in East Kazakhstan and Karaganda regions. Conclusion: The analysis of OC prevalence in the Republic of Kazakhstan and by regions showed an increase in OC incidence. There is a marked increase in OC detection in the northern areas of the country and a decrease in the number of cases in the south.

scholarly journals Varicella disease after introduction of varicella vaccine in the US, 1995-2000

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Noah
Keyword(s):  
Herpes Zoster ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Early Life ◽  
Varicella Vaccine ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Subsequent Development ◽  
Effective Vaccine ◽  
Routine Immunisation ◽  
The Us

Chickenpox is now one of the last of the infectious diseases of childhood that remain mostly uncontrolled. An effective vaccine has been available for many years but has not been used for routine immunisation in many countries. This is because the effect of giving the vaccine in early life on the subsequent development of herpes zoster is not known; high immunisation rates are important to ensure that the age distribution does not shift towards older age groups in whom the disease is more serious; and the disease is generally considered innocuous, especially in childhood when about 95% of infections occur.

Features of the Current Epidemic Process of Infectious Mononucleosis in the Nizhny Novgorod Region

2021 ◽  
pp. 79-86
Author(s):  
MI Popkova ◽  
OV Utkin
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Mononucleosis ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Epidemiological Surveillance ◽  
Epidemic Process ◽  
Tract Infections ◽  
Nizhny Novgorod Region

Introduction: Today, we are witnessing the process of forming a fundamentally new epidemiological situation on infectious mononucleosis. Over the past decade, a general increase in the incidence of infectious mononucleosis, its proportion in the structure of respiratory tract infections, and economic importance was noted in Russia. Information about the epidemic process of infectious mononucleosis in different areas is limited. Our objective was to study the features of the epidemic process of infectious mononucleosis in the Nizhny Novgorod Region in 2010–2019. Methods: We conducted a retrospective epidemiological analysis of the incidence of infectious mononucleosis in the Nizhny Novgorod Region for 2010–2019 based on official statistics using standard statistical approaches. Results and discussion: The long-term incidence rate of infectious mononucleosis in the Nizhny Novgorod Region was stable (+0.6 %) with the long-term average rate of 12.6 ± 0.6 ‰оо. An autumn-winter-spring seasonality with two distinct peaks (in November–December and May) was revealed. The majority of cases were children aged 0–14 years (72.8 ± 2.2 %). The highest incidence rates were regis�tered in the age groups of 1–2 and 3-6 years. We established a reverse trend in the disease incidence among children aged 0–6 (decrease) and 7 years and older (increase). Adolescents aged 15–17 demonstrated the most pronounced growth rate (+7.5 %). The typical annual dynamics in adults was distinguished by a clear spring-summer seasonality, the absence of a characteristic growth in the autumn months, and a low rate in December. The identified features of the epidemic process in different age groups require clarification and detailing. Conclusions: We established recent patterns and features of the epidemic process of infectious mononucleosis in the Nizhny Novgorod Region. This work is an important component of epidemiological surveillance of infection and a scientific basis for improving the existing system of preventive and anti-epidemic measures.

Marked Increase in Incident Gynecomastia: A 20-Year National Registry Study, 1998 to 2017

2020 ◽  
Vol 105 (10) ◽  
pp. 3134-3140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trine Koch ◽  
Elvira V Bräuner ◽  
Alexander S Busch ◽  
Martha Hickey ◽  
Anders Juul
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
National Registry ◽  
Registry Study ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Danish Health ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
National Patient ◽  
First Time

Abstract Context Gynecomastia, the proliferation of mammary glandular tissue in the male, is a frequent but little-studied condition. Available prevalence data are based on selected patient populations or autopsy cases with their inherent bias. Objective The objective of this work is to evaluate the age-related incidence and secular trends in gynecomastia in the general population. Design An observational, 20-year national registry study was conducted. Setting This population-based study used nationwide registry data. Participants Participants included all Danish males (age 0-80 years) with a first-time diagnosis of gynecomastia. Main Outcome Measures All Danish males (age 0-80 years) were followed up for incident diagnosis of gynecomastia in the Danish National Patient Registry from 1998 to 2017 using the International Codes of Diseases, 10th revision, and the Danish Health Care Classification System. Age-specific incidence rates were estimated. The hypothesis tested in this study was formulated prior to data collection. Results Overall, a total 17 601 males (age 0-80 years) were registered with an incident diagnosis of gynecomastia within the 20-year study period, corresponding to 880 new cases per year and an average 20-year incidence of 3.4 per 10 000 men (age 0-80 years). The average annual incidence was 6.5/10 000 in postpubertal males age 16 to 20 years and 4.6/10 000 in males age 61 to 80 years, with a respective 5- and 11-fold overall increase in these 2 age groups over the 20-year period. Conclusions The incidence of gynecomastia has dramatically increased over the last 20 years, implying that the endogenous or exogenous sex-steroid environment has changed, which is associated with other adverse health consequences in men such as an increased risk of prostate cancer, metabolic syndrome, type 2 diabetes, or cardiovascular disorders.

scholarly journals Inflammatory Bowel Disease Incidence and Prevalence in Southern Alberta

1990 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 187-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Faith G Davis ◽  
Michael G Grace ◽  
Noel Hershfield
Keyword(s):  
Inflammatory Bowel Disease ◽  
Crohn’S Disease ◽  
Crohn's Disease ◽  
Bowel Disease ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Southern Alberta ◽  
Inflammatory Bowel

Incidence and prevalence rates of inflammatory bowel disease were estimated for 1976-81 in southern Alberta. Cases were identified using hospital and physician records and membership lists of the Canadian Foundation for Ileitis and Colitis. A mail survey was conducted to obtain demographic data. Population data were obtained from Statistics Canada. The overall prevalence rate of IBO in men was 69.1 per 105 and 97.6 per 105 in women. Incidence rates of IBD were 6.0 per 105 per year in men and 9.2 per 105 per year in women. These six differences were due to Crohn's disease as female incidence rates were twice that of male rates 6.3 per 105 per year versus 3. L per LOS per year. A bimodal age distribution and female predominance in the younger age groups was apparent for Crohn's disease.

scholarly journals Influence of thyroid hormone disruption on the incidence of shingles

2015 ◽  
Vol 143 (16) ◽  
pp. 3557-3571 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. AJAVON ◽  
D. KILLIAN ◽  
R. ODOM ◽  
R. W. FIGLIOZZI ◽  
F. CHEN ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Hormone ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Human Herpesvirus ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Varicella Zoster ◽  
Its Gene ◽  
History Of ◽  
Simplex Virus ◽  
Hsv 1

SUMMARYThe reactivation of dormant alpha-human herpesvirus (αHHV) has been attributed to various causes often referred to as stressors. However, no clinical study investigating the relationship between stressors and reactivation exists in humans at this time. Herpes simplex virus type-1 (HSV-1), an important αHHV, was shown to have its gene expression and replication regulated by thyroid hormone (TH) using molecular biology approaches. Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is categorized in αHHV superfamily and shares similar homology with HSV-1. We hypothesize that a history of TH imbalance may be associated with the incidence of shingles (VZV reactivation). This current pilot study, based on a hospital medical claims database, was conducted as a retrospective case-controlled investigation to determine if a putative link between TH imbalance and incidence of shingles is present. An odds ratio of 2·95 with a χ2 value of 51·74 was calculated for the total population diagnosed with TH disruption and shingles. Further analyses indicated that African American males exhibited a much higher chance of simultaneous diagnoses. These results show that a TH imbalance history may affect VZV reactivation at different incidence rates in different races and age groups.

scholarly journals Alimentary-dependent prevalence in children of different age groups (on the example, of the industrial center of the Irkutsk region)

2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (10) ◽  
pp. 1139-1144
Author(s):  
Inna V. Myl’nikova ◽  
Olga G. Bogdanova
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
The Body ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Software Module ◽  
Adaptive Capabilities ◽  
Age Related ◽  
Irkutsk Region ◽  
Quality Of Medical Care ◽  
Industrial Center

Aim of the study. Analysis of the dynamics of the alimentary-dependent prevalence in children from various age groups in the industrial center. Materials and methods. The study was conducted retrospectively according to official statistical reporting. The total and primary incidence in children and adolescents in the city of Angarsk was estimated for 6 years (2013-2018). Age-specific features of the incidence in children were analyzed over 3 years (2016-2018). Relative indices of the incidence were calculated (per 1000 population of the corresponding age), characteristics of the time series: the average annual absolute increment; the rate of average annual growth (decrease); linear regression models were built using the Excel software module. Results. An analysis of the primary morbidity of alimentary-dependent pathology in children of different ages showed that its structure is characterized by a predominance of diseases of the digestive, endocrine systems, and blood. Moreover, in young children, blood diseases are most pronounced. Assessment of the dynamics of alimentary-dependent diseases in children aged 0-14 and 15-17 years revealed multidirectional trends. In children aged 0-14 and 15-17 years, the presence of pronounced trends to a decrease in the incidence of the pathology of the digestive system was revealed. The differences are that pronounced trends in the increase in the incidence are observed in children aged 0-14 years - in the frequency of obesity, in children 15-17 years old - in the frequency of endemic goiter. Discussion. The obtained values of the regression analysis allow predicting an increase in the frequency of diseases of the thyroid gland associated with iodine deficiency in children aged 0-14 years, obesity - in 15-17 year adolescents. Differences in the frequency of these nosological forms depending on the age of the children can be presumably due to changes in eating behavior, the influence of heredity, and the adaptive capabilities of the body. The incidence rates of alimentary-dependent pathology depend on the quality of medical care and the geochemical characteristics of the territory of residence. Conclusion. The study revealed the age-related characteristics of alimentary-dependent pathology and concretized the directions for improving medical and preventive activities.

scholarly journals Social disparities in the first wave of COVID-19 infections in Germany: A county-scale explainable machine learning approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Doblhammer ◽  
Constantin Reinke ◽  
Daniel Kreft
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
High Mobility ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Outcome Variable ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Individual Level

AbstractBackgroundLittle is known about factors correlated with this geographic spread of the first wave of COVID-19 infections in Germany. Given the lack of individual-level socioeconomic information on COVID-19 cases, we resorted to an ecological study design, exploring regional correlates of COVID-19 diagnoses.Data and MethodWe used data from the Robert-Koch-Institute on COVID-19 diagnoses by sex, age (age groups: 0-4, 5-14, 15-34, 35-59, 60-79, 80+), county (NUTS3 region) differentiating five periods (initial phase: through 15 March; 1st lockdown period: 16 March to 31 March; 2nd lockdown period: from 1 April to 15 April; easing period: 16 April to 30 April; post-lockdown period: 1 May through 23 July). For each period we calculated age-standardized incidence of COVID-19 diagnoses on the county level, using the German age distribution from the year 2018. We characterized the regions by macro variables in nine domains: “Demography”, “Employment”, “Politics, religion, and education”, “Income”, “Settlement structure and environment”, “Health care”, “(structural) Poverty”, “Interrelationship with other regions”, and “Geography”. We trained gradient boosting models to predict the age-standardized incidence rates with the macro structures of the counties, and used SHAP values to characterize the 20 most prominent features in terms of negative/positive correlations with the outcome variable.ResultsThe change in the age-standardized incidence rates over time is reflected in the changing importance of features as indicated by the mean SHAP values for the five periods. The first COVID-19 wave started as a disease in wealthy rural counties in southern Germany, and ventured into poorer urban and agricultural counties during the course of the first wave. The negative social gradient became more pronounced from the 2nd lockdown period onwards, when wealthy counties appeared to be better protected. Population density per se does not appear to be a risk factor, and only in the post-lockdown period did connectedness become an important regional characteristic correlated with higher infections. Features related to economic and educational characteristics of the young population in a county played an important role at the beginning of the pandemic up to the 2nd lockdown phase, as did features related to the population living in nursing homes; those related to international migration and a large proportion of foreigners living in a county became important in the post-lockdown period.DiscussionIn the absence of individual level data, explainable machine learning methods based on regional data may help to better understand the changing nature of the drivers of the pandemic. High mobility of high SES groups may drive the pandemic at the beginning of waves, while mitigation measures and beliefs about the seriousness of the pandemic as well as the compliance with mitigation measures put lower SES groups at higher risks later on.

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