Large contribution of sea surface warming to recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity

Nature ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 451 (7178) ◽  
pp. 557-560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark A. Saunders ◽  
Adam S. Lea
Keyword(s):  
Sea Surface ◽  
Large Contribution ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
Recent Increase ◽  
Hurricane Activity

Leading Tropical Modes Associated with Interannual and Multidecadal Fluctuations in North Atlantic Hurricane Activity

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 590-612 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald D. Bell ◽  
Muthuvel Chelliah
Keyword(s):  
West African Monsoon ◽  
West African ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
African Monsoon ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
Enso Teleconnections ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Interannual and multidecadal extremes in Atlantic hurricane activity are shown to result from a coherent and interrelated set of atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with three leading modes of climate variability in the Tropics. All three modes are related to fluctuations in tropical convection, with two representing the leading multidecadal modes of convective rainfall variability, and one representing the leading interannual mode (ENSO). The tropical multidecadal modes are shown to link known fluctuations in Atlantic hurricane activity, West African monsoon rainfall, and Atlantic sea surface temperatures, to the Tropics-wide climate variability. These modes also capture an east–west seesaw in anomalous convection between the West African monsoon region and the Amazon basin, which helps to account for the interhemispheric symmetry of the 200-hPa streamfunction anomalies across the Atlantic Ocean and Africa, the 200-hPa divergent wind anomalies, and both the structure and spatial scale of the low-level tropical wind anomalies, associated with multidecadal extremes in Atlantic hurricane activity. While there are many similarities between the 1950–69 and 1995–2004 periods of above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity, important differences in the tropical climate are also identified, which indicates that the above-normal activity since 1995 does not reflect an exact return to conditions seen during the 1950s–60s. In particular, the period 1950–69 shows a strong link to the leading tropical multidecadal mode (TMM), whereas the 1995–2002 period is associated with a sharp increase in amplitude of the second leading tropical multidecadal mode (TMM2). These differences include a very strong West African monsoon circulation and near-average sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Atlantic during 1950–69, compared with a modestly enhanced West African monsoon and exceptionally warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures during 1995–2004. It is shown that the ENSO teleconnections and impacts on Atlantic hurricane activity can be substantially masked or accentuated by the leading multidecadal modes. This leads to the important result that these modes provide a substantially more complete view of the climate control over Atlantic hurricane activity during individual seasons than is afforded by ENSO alone. This result applies to understanding differences in the “apparent” ENSO teleconnections not only between the above- and below-normal hurricane decades, but also between the two sets of above-normal hurricane decades.

Improving Multiseason Forecasts of North Atlantic Hurricane Activity

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 1209-1219 ◽  
Author(s):  
James B. Elsner ◽  
Thomas H. Jagger ◽  
Michael Dickinson ◽  
Dail Rowe
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Monte Carlo Sampling ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Hurricane Season ◽  
Hurricane Activity ◽  
Term Management

Abstract Hurricanes cause drastic social problems as well as generate huge economic losses. A reliable forecast of the level of hurricane activity covering the next several seasons has the potential to mitigate against such losses through improvements in preparedness and insurance mechanisms. Here a statistical algorithm is developed to predict North Atlantic hurricane activity out to 5 yr. The algorithm has two components: a time series model to forecast average hurricane-season Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST), and a regression model to forecast the hurricane rate given the predicted SST value. The algorithm uses Monte Carlo sampling to generate distributions for the predicted SST and model coefficients. For a given forecast year, a predicted hurricane count is conditional on a sampled predicted value of Atlantic SST. Thus forecasts are samples of hurricane counts for each future year. Model skill is evaluated over the period 1997–2005 and compared against climatology, persistence, and other multiseasonal forecasts issued during this time period. Results indicate that the algorithm will likely improve on earlier efforts and perhaps carry enough skill to be useful in the long-term management of hurricane risk.

scholarly journals Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence

Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 362 (6416) ◽  
pp. 794-799 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Murakami ◽  
E. Levin ◽  
T. L. Delworth ◽  
R. Gudgel ◽  
P.-C. Hsu
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Key Factor ◽  
Resolution Model ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
Hurricane Activity

Here we explore factors potentially linked to the enhanced major hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean during 2017. Using a suite of high-resolution model experiments, we show that the increase in 2017 major hurricanes was not primarily caused by La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean but rather triggered mainly by pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic. Further, we superimpose a similar pattern of North Atlantic surface warming on data for long-term increasing sea surface temperature (a product of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and decreases in aerosols) to show that this warming trend will likely lead to even higher numbers of major hurricanes in the future. The key factor controlling Atlantic major hurricane activity appears to be the degree to which the tropical Atlantic warms relative to the rest of the global ocean.

Contribution of low-salinity water to sea surface warming of the East China Sea in the summer of 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 175 ◽  
pp. 68-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jae-Hong Moon ◽  
Taekyun Kim ◽  
Young Baek Son ◽  
Ji-Seok Hong ◽  
Joon-Ho Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East China Sea ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
East China ◽  
The East China Sea ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
China Sea ◽  
Low Salinity ◽  
Low Salinity Water ◽  
Salinity Water
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