Abstract
Background: Newborn screening (NBS) can prevent inborn errors of metabolism (IEMs), which may cause long-term disability and even death in newborns. However, in China, tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) screening has just started. This study is to determine the cost-effectiveness of NBS using MS/MS in Shenzhen under the nationally recommended program, and determine IEMs for detection.Methods: A Markov model was built to estimate the cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of different screening programs. The current screening program and nationally recommended program were compared and we also compared the programs detecting different numbers of IEMs, which are chosen from the national program. A sensitivity analysis and budget impact analysis (BIA) were performed.Results: The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of detecting all 12 IEMs in the national program is 277,823 RMB per QALY, below three times per capita GDP in Shenzhen. MS/MS screening in Shenzhen can be cost-effective only if at least three diseases (PKU, PCD and MMA) are covered and when the screening program covers five diseases (PKU, PCD, MMA, MSUD, IVA), the ICER closely approaches its critical value. The BIA indicated the implementation cost of the national program to be around 580 million RMB over 10 years and showed no difference in budget between programs detecting different numbers of IEMs. Conclusions: We conclude that the newborn screening using MS/MS in Shenzhen is cost-effective, and the budget affordable for the Shenzhen government. Two concepts for selecting the IEMs to be detected, which we label the “ICER maximization idea” and the “ICER validation idea” are also presented.