scholarly journals Quantifying uncertainty in aggregated climate change risk assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke J. Harrington ◽  
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner ◽  
Friederike E. L. Otto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
Multiple Dimensions ◽  
Common Framework ◽  
High Level ◽  
Quantifying Uncertainty ◽  
Very High

AbstractHigh-level assessments of climate change impacts aggregate multiple perils into a common framework. This requires incorporating multiple dimensions of uncertainty. Here we propose a methodology to transparently assess these uncertainties within the ‘Reasons for Concern’ framework, using extreme heat as a case study. We quantitatively discriminate multiple dimensions of uncertainty, including future vulnerability and exposure to changing climate hazards. High risks from extreme heat materialise after 1.5–2 °C and very high risks between 2–3.5 °C of warming. Risks emerge earlier if global assessments were based on national risk thresholds, underscoring the need for stringent mitigation to limit future extreme heat risks.

التغير المناخي واثره في المقنن المائي لمحصول العنب في محافظة ديالى

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (34) ◽  
pp. 391-422
Author(s):  
اشواق حسن حميد صالح
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Solar Brightness ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Climate Station ◽  
The Times ◽  
High Level ◽  
Very High

Climate change and its impact on water resources is the problem of the times. Therefore, this study is concerned with the subject of climate change and its impact on the water ration of the grape harvest in Diyala Governorate. The study was based on the data of the Khanaqin climate station for the period 1973-2017, (1986-2017) due to lack of data at governorate level. The general trend of the elements of the climate and its effect on the water formula was extracted. The equation of change was extracted for the duration of the study. The statistical analysis was also used between the elements of the climate (actual brightness, normal temperature, micro and maximum degrees Celsius, wind speed m / s, relative humidity% The results of the statistical analysis confirm that the water ration for the study area is based mainly on the X7 evaporation / netting variable, which is affected by a set of independent variables X1 Solar Brightness X4 X5 Extreme Temperature Wind Speed ​​3X Minimal Temperature and Very High Level .

Regional biogeographical model of vegetation zones in doctoral programme Regional Biography in Olomouc (Case study for Norway spruce)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivo Machar ◽  
Marián Halás ◽  
Zdeněk Opršal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Vegetation Zones ◽  
Landscape Research

Regional climate changes impacts induce vegetation zones shift to higher altitudes in temperate landscape. This paper deals with applying of regional biogeography model of climate conditions for vegetation zones in Czechia to doctoral programme Regional Geography in Palacky University Olomouc. The model is based on general knowledge of landscape vegetation zonation. Climate data for model come from predicted validated climate database under RCP8.5 scenario since 2100. Ecological data are included in the Biogeography Register database (geobiocoenological data related to landscape for cadastral areas of the Czech Republic). Mathematical principles of modelling are based on set of software solutions with GIS. Students use the model in the frame of the course “Special Approaches to Landscape Research” not only for regional scenarios climate change impacts in landscape scale, but also for assessment of climate conditions for growing capability of agricultural crops or forest trees under climate change on regional level.

scholarly journals Will Climate Change Exacerbate the Economic Damage of Flood to Agricultural Production? A Case Study of Rice in Ha Tinh Province, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Quy Giang ◽  
Tran Trung Vy
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Economic Damage

In developing countries in general and in Vietnam in particular, flood induced economic loss of agriculture is a serious concern since the livelihood of large populations depends on agricultural production. The objective of this study was to examine if climate change would exacerbate flood damage to agricultural production with a case study of rice production in Huong Son District of Ha Tinh Province, North-central Vietnam. The study applied a modeling approach for the prediction. Extreme precipitation and its return periods were calculated by the Generalized Extreme Value distribution method using historical daily observations and output of the MRI-CGCM3 climate model. The projected extreme precipitation data was then employed as an input of the Mike Flood model for flood modeling. Finally, an integrated approach employing flood depth and duration and crop calendar was used for the prediction of potential economic loss of rice production. Results of the study show that in comparison with the baseline period, an increase of 49.14% in the intensity of extreme precipitation was expected, while the frequency would increase 5 times by 2050s. As a result, the seriousness of floods would increase under climate change impacts as they would become more intensified, deeper and longer, and consequently the economic loss of rice production would increase significantly. While the level of peak flow was projected to rise nearly 1 m, leading the area of rice inundated to increase by 12.61%, the value of damage would rise by over 21% by 2050s compared to the baseline period. The findings of the present study are useful for long-term agricultural and infrastructural planning in order to tackle potential flooding threats to agricultural production under climate change impacts.

Vulnerability of the Lakshadweep Coral Islands in India and Strategies for Mitigating Climate Change Impacts

2017 ◽  
pp. 64-96
Author(s):  
B. K. Khanna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Change Strategies ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Successes And Challenges ◽  
Lakshadweep Archipelago ◽  
Coral Islands

Strategies for mitigating climate change impact on the vulnerable Lakshadweep coral islands have been drawn up in accordance with the principles, guidelines and strategies laid down in the Indian National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The region most vulnerable to inundation from accelerated sea level rise (at least 40 cm by 2100) is the Lakshadweep archipelago. The first section of the chapter reviews the origin and geophysical features, climate profile, sectoral impact of climate change and vulnerabilities of Lakshdweep. The second section deals with climate change strategies and their adaptation, recommending appropriate actions for coping strategies to be adopted by local communities to be resilient against the adverse impacts of climate change. The third section outlines the Lakshadweep Action Plan for Climate Change (LAPCC) and the fourth section describes integrating LAPCC within the NAPCC, successes and challenges ahead. For small islands it is a notable case study to emulate, mitigating the effects of climate change while not deviating from development goals.

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