scholarly journals COVID-19 vaccination strategies depend on the underlying network of social interactions

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena A. Saunders ◽  
Jean-Marc Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Critical Parameters ◽  
Social Activities ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Underlying Network

AbstractSince the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, different mitigation and management strategies limiting economic and social activities have been implemented across many countries. Despite these strategies, the virus continues to spread and mutate. As a result, vaccinations are now administered to suppress the pandemic. Current COVID-19 epidemic models need to be expanded to account for the change in behaviour of new strains, such as an increased virulence and higher transmission rate. Furthermore, models need to account for an increasingly vaccinated population. We present a network model of COVID-19 transmission accounting for different immunity and vaccination scenarios. We conduct a parameter sensitivity analysis and find the average immunity length after an infection to be one of the most critical parameters that define the spread of the disease. Furthermore, we simulate different vaccination strategies and show that vaccinating highly connected individuals first is the quickest strategy for controlling the disease.

Parameter sensitivity analysis of a network model of systemic circulatory mechanics

1974 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 289-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toshiro Sato ◽  
Stanley M. Yamashiro ◽  
Daniel Vega ◽  
Fred S. Grodins
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis

scholarly journals Modifying the network-based stochastic SEIR model to account for quarantine: an application to COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Groendyke ◽  
Adam Combs
Keyword(s):  
Network Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Contact Network ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Disease States ◽  
Potential Contact ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Infectious State

Abstract Objectives: Diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 have novel features that require modifications to the standard network-based stochastic SEIR model. In particular, we introduce modifications to this model to account for the potential changes in behavior patterns of individuals upon becoming symptomatic, as well as the tendency of a substantial proportion of those infected to remain asymptomatic. Methods: Using a generic network model where every potential contact exists with the same common probability, we conduct a simulation study in which we vary four key model parameters (transmission rate, probability of remaining asymptomatic, and the mean lengths of time spent in the exposed and infectious disease states) and examine the resulting impacts on various metrics of epidemic severity, including the effective reproduction number. We then consider the effects of a more complex network model. Results: We find that the mean length of time spent in the infectious state and the transmission rate are the most important model parameters, while the mean length of time spent in the exposed state and the probability of remaining asymptomatic are less important. We also find that the network structure has a significant impact on the dynamics of the disease spread. Conclusions: In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to the model to incorporate situations where some proportion of the individuals who are infected remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the disease.

scholarly journals The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudarat Chadsuthi ◽  
Karine Chalvet-Monfray ◽  
Anuwat Wiratsudakul ◽  
Charin Modchang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Public Education ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Multiplication Rate ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Transmission Models

AbstractThe epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

Parameter Sensitivity Analysis of a Large-Scale System With Several Components Interacting in Series

1989 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Torab
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity ◽  
Engineering Optimization ◽  
Parameter Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Large Scale Systems ◽  
In Series ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Engineering Optimization Problems

Abstract Parameter sensitivity for large-scale systems that include several components which interface in series is presented. Large-scale systems can be divided into components or sub-systems to avoid excessive calculations in determining their optimum design. Model Coordination Method of Decomposition (MCMD) is one of the most commonly used methods to solve large-scale engineering optimization problems. In the Model Coordination Method of Decomposition, the vector of coordinating variables can be partitioned into two sub-vectors for systems with several components interacting in series. The first sub-vector consists of those variables that are common among all or most of the elements. The other sub-vector consists of those variables that are common between only two components that are in series. This study focuses on a parameter sensitivity analysis for this special case using MCMD.

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