scholarly journals Jointly modeling marine species to inform the effects of environmental change on an ecological community in the Northwest Atlantic

2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah M. Roberts ◽  
Patrick N. Halpin ◽  
James S. Clark
Keyword(s):  
Marine Fish ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Environmental Effects ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Marine Species ◽  
Joint Modeling ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models

AbstractSingle species distribution models (SSDMs) are typically used to understand and predict the distribution and abundance of marine fish by fitting distribution models for each species independently to a combination of abiotic environmental variables. However, species abundances and distributions are influenced by abiotic environmental preferences as well as biotic dependencies such as interspecific competition and predation. When species interact, a joint species distribution model (JSDM) will allow for valid inference of environmental effects. We built a joint species distribution model of marine fish and invertebrates of the Northeast US Continental Shelf, providing evidence on species relationships with the environment as well as the likelihood of species to covary. Predictive performance is similar to SSDMs but the Bayesian joint modeling approach provides two main advantages over single species modeling: (1) the JSDM directly estimates the significance of environmental effects; and (2) predicted species richness accounts for species dependencies. An additional value of JSDMs is that the conditional prediction of species distributions can use not only the environmental associations of species, but also the presence and abundance of other species when forecasting future climatic associations.

scholarly journals Community Confounding In Joint Species Distribution Models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin J. Van Ee ◽  
Jacob S. Ivan ◽  
Mevin B. Hooten
Keyword(s):  
Bark Beetle ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Single Species ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Subalpine Forest ◽  
Community Effects ◽  
Distribution Models

Abstract Joint species distribution models have become ubiquitous for studying species-habitat relationships and dependence among species. Accounting for community structure often improves predictive power, but can also alter inference on species-habitat relationships. Modulated species-habitat relationships are indicative of community confounding: The situation in which interspecies dependence and habitat effects compete to explain species distributions. We discuss community confounding in a case study of mammalian responses to the Colorado bark beetle epidemic in the subalpine forest by comparing the inference from independent single species distribution models and a joint species distribution model. We present a method for measuring community confounding and develop a restricted version of our hierarchical model that orthogonalizes the habitat and species random effects. Our results indicate that variables associated with the severity and duration of the bark beetle epidemic suffer from community confounding. This implies that mammalian responses to the bark beetle epidemic are governed by interconnected habitat and community effects. Disentangling habitat and community effects can improve our understanding of the ecological system and possible management strategies. We evaluate restricted regression as a method for alleviating community confounding and distinguish it from other inferential methods for confounded models.

scholarly journals Evaluation of species distribution models for estimating animal dark diversity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Camilo Matus-Olivares ◽  
Jaime Carrasco ◽  
José Luis Yela ◽  
Paula Meli ◽  
Andres Weintraub ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
The Other ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Data ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Software Environment

Abstract Aim Applying wide and effective sampling of animal communities is rarely possible due to the associated costs and the use of techniques that are not always efficient. Thus, many areas have a faunistic hidden diversity we denote Animal Dark Diversity (ADD), defined as the diversity that is present but not yet detected plus the diversity defined by Pärtel et al. (2011) that is not (yet) present despite the area’s favourable habitat conditions. We evaluated different species distribution model types (SDM techniques) on the basis of three requirements for ADD estimate reliability: 1) estimated spatial patterns of ADD do not differ significantly from other SDM techniques; 2) good predictive performances; and 3) low overfitting. Location Iberian Peninsula. Taxon Chiroptera and Noctuoidea (Lepidoptera) Methods We used distribution data for 25 species of bats and 352 species of moths. We evaluated eleven SDM techniques using biomod2 package implemented in the R software environment. We fitted the various SDM techniques to the data for each species and compared the resulting ADD estimates for the two animal groups under three threshold types. Results The results demonstrated that estimated ADD spatial patterns vary significantly between SDM techniques and depend on the threshold type. They also showed that SDM techniques with overfitting tend to generate smaller ADD sizes, thus reducing the possible species presence estimates. Among the SDMs studied, the ensemble models delivered ADD geographic patterns more like the other techniques while also presenting a high predictive performance for both faunal groups. However, the Ensemble Model Committee Average (ECA) performed much better on the sensitivity metric than all other techniques under any of the thresholds tested. In addition, ECA stood out clearly from the other ensemble model techniques in displaying low-medium overfitting. Main conclusions SDM techniques should no differ among each other in their ADD estimations, have good predictive performances and exhibit low overfitting. Furthermore, to reduce estimate uncertainty it is suggested that the threshold type be one that transforms high values of presences probabilities into binary information and furthermore that the SDM technique have a sensitivity bias, as otherwise the estimates will perform better for species absence in cases where it is not in fact known whether a species is truly absent.

scholarly journals A Robust Prediction Model for Species Distribution Using Bagging Ensembles with Deep Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1495
Author(s):  
Jehyeok Rew ◽  
Yongjang Cho ◽  
Eenjun Hwang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Robust Prediction

Species distribution models have been used for various purposes, such as conserving species, discovering potential habitats, and obtaining evolutionary insights by predicting species occurrence. Many statistical and machine-learning-based approaches have been proposed to construct effective species distribution models, but with limited success due to spatial biases in presences and imbalanced presence-absences. We propose a novel species distribution model to address these problems based on bootstrap aggregating (bagging) ensembles of deep neural networks (DNNs). We first generate bootstraps considering presence-absence data on spatial balance to alleviate the bias problem. Then we construct DNNs using environmental data from presence and absence locations, and finally combine these into an ensemble model using three voting methods to improve prediction accuracy. Extensive experiments verified the proposed model’s effectiveness for species in South Korea using crowdsourced observations that have spatial biases. The proposed model achieved more accurate and robust prediction results than the current best practice models.

scholarly journals Assessing the effect of fish size on species distribution model performance in southern Chilean rivers

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Zamorano ◽  
Fabio Labra ◽  
Marcelo Villarroel ◽  
Luca Mao ◽  
Shaw Lucy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Body Size ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Fish Size ◽  
River Fish

Despite its theoretical relationship, the effect of body size on the performance of species distribution models (SDM) has only been assessed in a few studies of terrestrial taxa. We aim to assess the effect of body size on the performance of SDM in river fish. We study seven Chilean freshwater fish, using models trained with three different sets of predictor variables: ecological (Eco), anthropogenic (Antr) and both (Eco+Antr). Our results indicate that the performance of the Eco+Antr models improves with fish size. These results highlight the importance of two novel predictive layers: the source of river flow and the overproduction of biotopes by anthropogenic activities. We compare our work with previous studies that modeled river fish, and observe a similar relationship in most cases. We discuss the current challenges of the modeling of riverine species, and how our work helps suggest possible solutions.

scholarly journals SDMtoolbox 2.0: the next generation Python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses

PeerJ ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. e4095 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason L. Brown ◽  
Joseph R. Bennett ◽  
Connor M. French
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Species Distribution Modeling ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Data Types ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Distribution Modeling ◽  
Modeling Software ◽  
Cost Paths

SDMtoolbox 2.0 is a software package for spatial studies of ecology, evolution, and genetics. The release of SDMtoolbox 2.0 allows researchers to use the most current ArcGIS software and MaxEnt software, and reduces the amount of time that would be spent developing common solutions. The central aim of this software is to automate complicated and repetitive spatial analyses in an intuitive graphical user interface. One core tenant facilitates careful parameterization of species distribution models (SDMs) to maximize each model’s discriminatory ability and minimize overfitting. This includes carefully processing of occurrence data, environmental data, and model parameterization. This program directly interfaces with MaxEnt, one of the most powerful and widely used species distribution modeling software programs, although SDMtoolbox 2.0 is not limited to species distribution modeling or restricted to modeling in MaxEnt. Many of the SDM pre- and post-processing tools have ‘universal’ analogs for use with any modeling software. The current version contains a total of 79 scripts that harness the power of ArcGIS for macroecology, landscape genetics, and evolutionary studies. For example, these tools allow for biodiversity quantification (such as species richness or corrected weighted endemism), generation of least-cost paths and corridors among shared haplotypes, assessment of the significance of spatial randomizations, and enforcement of dispersal limitations of SDMs projected into future climates—to only name a few functions contained in SDMtoolbox 2.0. Lastly, dozens of generalized tools exists for batch processing and conversion of GIS data types or formats, which are broadly useful to any ArcMap user.

Species Distribution Models (SDM) – A Strategic Tool for Predicting Suitable Habitats for Conserving the Target Species

2017 ◽  
pp. 427-440
Author(s):  
Balaguru Balakrishnan ◽  
Nagamurugan Nandakumar ◽  
Soosairaj Sebastin ◽  
Khaleel Ahamed Abdul Kareem
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Spatial Data ◽  
Environmental Variables ◽  
Species Distribution Models ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Target Species ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Conservation of the species in their native landscapes required understanding patterns of spatial distribution of species and their ecological connectivity through Species Distribution Models (SDM) by generation and integration of spatial data from different sources using Geographical Information System (GIS) tools. SDM is an ecological/spatial model which combines datasets and maps of occurrence of target species and their geographical and environmental variables by linking various algorithms together, that has been applied to either identify or predict the regions fulfilling the set conditions. This article is focused on comprehensive review of spatial data requirements, statistical algorithms and softwares used to generate the SDMs. This chapter also includes a case study predicting the suitable habitat distribution of Gnetum ula, an endemic and vulnerable plant species using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model for species occurrences with inputs from environmental variables such as bioclimate and elevation.

scholarly journals From Remote Sensing to Species Distribution Modelling: An Integrated Workflow to Monitor Spreading Species in Key Grassland Habitats

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1904
Author(s):  
Walter De Simone ◽  
Marina Allegrezza ◽  
Anna Rita Frattaroli ◽  
Silvia Montecchiari ◽  
Giulio Tesei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Natura 2000 ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Overlay Analysis ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Habitat Directive ◽  
The Impact

Remote sensing (RS) has been widely adopted as a tool to investigate several biotic and abiotic factors, directly and indirectly, related to biodiversity conservation. European grasslands are one of the most biodiverse habitats in Europe. Most of these habitats are subject to priority conservation measure, and several human-induced processes threaten them. The broad expansions of few dominant species are usually reported as drivers of biodiversity loss. In this context, using Sentinel-2 (S2) images, we investigate the distribution of one of the most spreading species in the Central Apennine: Brachypodium genuense. We performed a binary Random Forest (RF) classification of B. genuense using RS images and field-sampled presence/absence data. Then, we integrate the occurrences obtained from RS classification into species distribution models to identify the topographic drivers of B. genuense distribution in the study area. Lastly, the impact of B. genuense distribution in the Natura 2000 (N2k) habitats (Annex I of the European Habitat Directive) was assessed by overlay analysis. The RF classification process detected cover of B. genuense with an overall accuracy of 94.79%. The topographic species distribution model shows that the most relevant topographic variables that influence the distribution of B. genuense are slope, elevation, solar radiation, and topographic wet index (TWI) in order of importance. The overlay analysis shows that 74.04% of the B. genuense identified in the study area falls on the semi-natural dry grasslands. The study highlights the RS classification and the topographic species distribution model’s importance as an integrated workflow for mapping a broad-expansion species such as B. genuense. The coupled techniques presented in this work should apply to other plant communities with remotely recognizable characteristics for more effective management of N2k habitats.

scholarly journals Associations Between Habitat Quality And Body Size In The Carpathian Land Snail Vestia turgida: Species Distribution Model Selection And Assessment Of Performance

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Tytar ◽  
O. Baidashnikov
Keyword(s):  
Body Size ◽  
Habitat Quality ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
Habitat Suitability ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Land Snail ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Additive Regression

Species distribution models (SDMs) are generally thought to be good indicators of habitat suitability, and thus of species’ performance, consequently SDMs can be validated by checking whether the areas projected to have the greatest habitat quality are occupied by individuals or populations with higher than average fitness. We hypothesized a positive and statistically significant relationship between observed in the field body size of the snail V. turgida and modelled habitat suitability, tested this relationship with linear mixed models, and found that indeed, larger individuals tend to occupy high-quality areas, as predicted by the SDMs. However, by testing several SDM algorithms, we found varied levels of performance in terms of expounding this relationship. Marginal R2, expressing the variance explained by the fixed terms in the regression models, was adopted as a measure of functional accuracy, and used to rank the SDMs accordingly. In this respect, the Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) algorithm (Carlson, 2020) gave the best result, despite the low AUC and TSS. By restricting our analysis to the BART algorithm only, a variety of sets of environmental variables commonly or less used in the construction of SDMs were explored and tested according to their functional accuracy. In this respect, the SDM produced using the ENVIREM data set (Title, Bemmels, 2018) gave the best result.

scholarly journals Assessing the effect of fish size on species distribution model performance in southern Chilean rivers

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Zamorano ◽  
Fabio Labra ◽  
Marcelo Villarroel ◽  
Luca Mao ◽  
Shaw Lucy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Body Size ◽  
Species Distribution ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Fish Size ◽  
River Fish

Despite its theoretical relationship, the effect of body size on the performance of species distribution models (SDM) has only been assessed in a few studies of terrestrial taxa. We aim to assess the effect of body size on the performance of SDM in river fish. We study seven Chilean freshwater fish, using models trained with three different sets of predictor variables: ecological (Eco), anthropogenic (Antr) and both (Eco+Antr). Our results indicate that the performance of the Eco+Antr models improves with fish size. These results highlight the importance of two novel predictive layers: the source of river flow and the overproduction of biotopes by anthropogenic activities. We compare our work with previous studies that modeled river fish, and observe a similar relationship in most cases. We discuss the current challenges of the modeling of riverine species, and how our work helps suggest possible solutions.

scholarly journals Modeling Rare Species Distribution at the Edge: The Case for the Vulnerable Endemic Pyrenean Desman in France

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Williams-Tripp ◽  
F. J. N. D'Amico ◽  
C. Pagé ◽  
A. Bertrand ◽  
M. Némoz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Species Distribution ◽  
Species Distribution Model ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Predictive Distribution ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
Present Distribution ◽  
Northern Edge ◽  
Spatial Transferability

The endemic Pyrenean Desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) is an elusive, rare, and vulnerable species declining over its entire and narrow range (Spain, Portugal, France, and Andorra). The principal set of conservation measures in France is a 5-years National Action Plan based on 25 conservation actions. Priority is given to update its present distribution and develop tools for predictive distribution models. We aim at building the first species distribution model and map for the northern edge of the range of the Desman and confronting the outputs of the model to target conservation efforts in the context of environmental change. Contrasting to former comparable studies, we derive a simpler model emphasizing the importance of factors linked to precipitation and not to the temperature. If temperature is one of the climate change key factors, depicted shrinkage in Desman distribution could be lower or null at the northern (French) edge suggesting thus a major role for this northern population in terms of conservation of the species. Finally, we question the applied issue of temporal and spatial transferability for such environmental favourability models when it is made at the edge of the distribution range.

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