scholarly journals A prospective evaluation of AI-augmented epidemiology to forecast COVID-19 in the USA and Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sercan Ö. Arık ◽  
Joel Shor ◽  
Rajarishi Sinha ◽  
Jinsung Yoon ◽  
Joseph R. Ledsam ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Policy ◽  
Considerable Change ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Prospective Evaluation ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Models Of Disease

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global need for reliable models of disease spread. We propose an AI-augmented forecast modeling framework that provides daily predictions of the expected number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, cases, and hospitalizations during the following 4 weeks. We present an international, prospective evaluation of our models’ performance across all states and counties in the USA and prefectures in Japan. Nationally, incident mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for predicting COVID-19 associated deaths during prospective deployment remained consistently <8% (US) and <29% (Japan), while cumulative MAPE remained <2% (US) and <10% (Japan). We show that our models perform well even during periods of considerable change in population behavior, and are robust to demographic differences across different geographic locations. We further demonstrate that our framework provides meaningful explanatory insights with the models accurately adapting to local and national policy interventions. Our framework enables counterfactual simulations, which indicate continuing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions alongside vaccinations is essential for faster recovery from the pandemic, delaying the application of interventions has a detrimental effect, and allow exploration of the consequences of different vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a global emergency. In the face of substantial challenges ahead, the approach presented here has the potential to inform critical decisions.

scholarly journals A prospective evaluation of AI-augmented epidemiology to forecast COVID-19 in the USA and Japan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Ledsam ◽  
Sercan Arik ◽  
Joel Shor ◽  
Rajarishi Sinha ◽  
Jinsung Yoon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Policy ◽  
Considerable Change ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Prospective Evaluation ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Models Of Disease

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the global need for reliable models of disease spread. We propose an AI-augmented forecast modeling framework that provides daily predictions of the expected number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths, cases and hospitalizations during the following 4 weeks and we present an international, prospective evaluation of our models' performance across all states and counties in the USA and prefectures in Japan. National mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for predicting COVID-19 associated deaths before and after prospective deployment remained consistently <2% (US) and <10% (Japan). Average statewide (US) and prefecture wide (Japan) MAPE was 6% and 26% respectively (14% when looking at prefectures with more than 10 deaths). We show that our models perform well even during periods of considerable change in population behavior, and that it is robust to demographic differences across different geographic locations. We further demonstrate that our framework provides meaningful explanatory insights with the models accurately adapting to local and national policy interventions. Our framework enables counterfactual simulations, which indicate continuing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions alongside vaccinations is essential for faster recovery from the pandemic, delaying the application of interventions has a detrimental effect, and allow exploration of the consequences of different vaccination strategies. The COVID-19 pandemic remains a global emergency. In the face of substantial challenges ahead, the approach presented here has the potential to inform critical decisions.

An Immigrant Filmmaker Substitutes an Alternative Vision of Adolescence: The Scarecrow (Sam Pillsbury, 1982)

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alistair Fox
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Cinematic Adaptation ◽  
Alternative Vision ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Genre Film

By comparing Sam Pillsbury’s cinematic adaptation of Ronald Hugh Morrieson’s The Scarecrow (1963) with the original, this chapter shows how the filmmaker, who was raised in the USA and immigrated to New Zealand in his teens, empties the source novel of the moral ambiguities and transgressive elements that had made the original a genuinely New Zealand work, in so far as it reflected puritan guilt over transgressive impulses in the face of repression, and thus turned the story into a genre film that that is much more anodyne in its vision.

The political background to arts in health

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daisy Fancourt
Keyword(s):  
National Policy ◽  
Health Departments ◽  
Arts Funding ◽  
Health And Wellbeing ◽  
The Arts ◽  
Policy And Strategy ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Political Background ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Arts In Health

In recent decades, there has been an increasing number of national policy and strategy papers discussing arts in health in countries around the world. Some of this activity has been driven by national arts bodies, championing the value of the arts in health and wellbeing and advocating for their inclusion within core arts funding and practice. Other activity has been led by health bodies, including health departments within governments and health services themselves. This chapter explores some of the most influential documents and considers their implication for research and practice. It draws on case studies of activity within Ireland, the UK, the USA, Australia, and Nordic countries.

Social Progress in Britain

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony F. Heath ◽  
Elizabeth Garratt ◽  
Ridhi Kashyap ◽  
Yaojun Li ◽  
Lindsay Richards
Keyword(s):  
Free Market ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
The Road ◽  
Social Divisions ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Usa ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Free Market Reforms ◽  
Made In

Social Progress in Britain examines how much progress has made in the years since Sir William Beveridge described the ‘five giants on the road to reconstruction’—the giants of Want, Disease, Ignorance, Squalor, and Idleness. The book has chapters examining the progress which Britain has made in improving material prosperity and tackling poverty; in extending length of life and tackling disease; in raising participation in education and improving educational standards; in tackling the scourge of unemployment, especially youth unemployment; and in providing better-quality housing and tackling overcrowding. In addition to Beveridge’s five giants, the book also explores inequalities of opportunity (focussing on inequalities between social classes, men and women, and ethnic groups), and the changing nature of social divisions and social cohesion in Britain. Throughout, the chapters put British progress into perspective by drawing comparisons with progress made in other large developed democracies such as Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, and the USA. As well as looking at the average level of prosperity, life expectancy, education, and housing, the book examines the extent of inequality around the average and pays particular attention to whether the most disadvantaged sections of society have shared in progress or have fallen behind. It concludes with an assessment of the effect of policy interventions such as Margaret Thatcher’s free market reforms of the 1980s on different aspects of social progress.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Self-Build and Custom Housebuilding in the South West of England

Urban Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Annie Hamilton Gingell ◽  
Sina Shahab
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Method ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Freedom Of Information ◽  
Local Planning ◽  
National Data ◽  
The South ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
South West ◽  
Land Bank ◽  
Method Approach

This paper seeks to evaluate how successful national policy interventions have been at addressing land barriers to self-build and custom housebuilding when applied by Local Planning Authorities (LPAs) across the South West of England. A longitudinal triangulated mixed method approach was undertaken to comprehensively interrogate the research objective. This comprised submitting a Freedom of Information (FOI) request to each LPA within the study area; an assessment of the most recently produced Strategic Housing Market Assessments (SHMAs); deriving alternative demand estimates using national data as a proxy; and alternate estimates of supply calculated using BuildStore and The Land Bank Partnership plot search websites. The findings of the study revealed that LPA Registers can only be viewed as a minimum assessment of demand for self-build and custom housebuilding and the effectiveness of LPAs in classifying suitable development permissions for self-build and custom housebuilding was highly dependent on the mechanisms used to identify permissions.

Impact of the National Policy on Integrative and Complementary Practices on Brazilian Public Homeopathy Services

Homeopathy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renata Lemonica ◽  
Karina Pavao Patricio
Keyword(s):  
Research Study ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Exploratory Research ◽  
The South ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Unified Health System ◽  
East Region ◽  
The Face ◽  
Health Demands ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background Homeopathy has been experiencing a period of expansion in Brazil due to its practical relevance in the face of new global and national health demands, culminating in the launch in 2006 of the National Policy for Integrative and Complementary Practices (NPICP) by the Ministry of Health of Brazil, which standardized and regularized the position of homeopathy within the Brazilian Unified Health System (SUS). Aims To understand the impact of the guidelines proposed by the NPICP on homeopathy services in the SUS, specifically in the south-east region of Brazil, according to the perceptions of their managers. Methods This is a descriptive, exploratory research study with a qualitative approach, conducted in homeopathy services in the south-east region of Brazil, through semi-structured interviews and with data processed using content analysis. Results The data show the importance of the NPICP in regulating and offering homeopathy in the services studied. However, the NPICP's objective of promoting and fully developing integrative and complementary practices has not been achieved because it has failed to translate strategies into actions. Conclusions Though important to the development of homeopathy services in any given location, policies stated in the NPICP were revealed to have limited impact on the implementation and development of new services. Without further legislation, training programs and appropriate budget allocation, new services will be unable to thrive and their users unable to benefit from a more comprehensive approach to healthcare.

scholarly journals Strengths and weaknesses of the Brazilian regulation on biosimilars: A critical view of the regulatory requirements for biosimilars in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 253-259 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Renato de Assis ◽  
Valdair Pinto
Keyword(s):  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Expression System ◽  
World Health ◽  
Regulatory Requirements ◽  
Biological Products ◽  
Synthetic Drugs ◽  
Comparability Exercise ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Health Organization

Biological products or biopharmaceuticals are medicinal products derived from living systems and manufactured by modern biotechnological methods that differ widely from the traditional synthetic drugs. Monoclonal antibodies are the most rapidly growing type of biologic. They are much larger and more complex molecules with inherent diversity; therefore, different manufacturers cannot produce identical biological products, even with the same type of host expression system and equivalent technologies. Thus, legal follow-on biologics manufactured and marketed after patent expiration are usually referred to as biosimilars. Biosimilarity is based on a comparability exercise whereby unavoidable clinical differences are evaluated and must meet equivalence or non-inferiority criteria. Biosimilars need to comply with different regulatory requirements for market authorization in different sites. There are several other related issues that need to be defined by the national authorities, such as interchangeability, labeling and prescribing information. The Brazilian health surveillance agency follows the key principles established by the World Health Organization for the assessment of biosimilarity, although does not adopt the name ‘biosimilar’. However, the agency also made a compromise on a standalone application pathway that does not require the usual comparability exercise with the reference product, originating nonbiosimilar copies. Interchangeability and the use of nonproprietary names are not regulated, giving rise to pressures on physicians and conflicts of interest in the decision making on biosimilar use. The scope of this article is to present the Brazilian regulation on biosimilars, its strengths and weaknesses, and to discuss it in the face of regulations in the USA and Europe.

Neighbourhood effects in cross-Atlantic perspective: A longitudinal analysis of impacts on intergenerational mobility in the USA and Germany

Urban Studies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 434-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junia Howell
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Longitudinal Analysis ◽  
Intergenerational Mobility ◽  
Neighbourhood Effects ◽  
Welfare Policies ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Cross National

Research in the USA provides evidence that neighbourhood conditions affect intergenerational mobility. However, what remains unclear is the extent to which the US context is unique in producing this influence. To examine this question, the present study directly compares neighbourhood effects on intergenerational mobility in the USA versus those in Germany – a country whose housing market and social welfare policies differ significantly from those in the USA. Results provide a blueprint for conducting cross-national neighbourhood effects studies and illuminate how the nature and severity of neighbourhood effects are nationally specific. These findings underscore the importance of considering how broader political contexts shape neighbourhood effects on intergenerational mobility – a consideration that has implications for proposed policy interventions.

Next-generation flexible formats of VNAR domains expand the drug platform's utility and developability

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 1559-1565 ◽  
Author(s):  
Obinna C. Ubah ◽  
Magdalena J. Buschhaus ◽  
Laura Ferguson ◽  
Marina Kovaleva ◽  
John Steven ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Immune System ◽  
Chain Structure ◽  
Molecular Engineering ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Therapeutic Success ◽  
Domain Structures ◽  
Therapeutic Molecules ◽  
The Face ◽  
Delivery Options ◽  
Models Of Disease

Therapeutic mAbs have delivered several blockbuster drugs in oncology and autoimmune inflammatory disease. Revenue for mAbs continues to rise, even in the face of competition from a growing portfolio of biosimilars. Despite this success, there are still limitations associated with the use of mAbs as therapeutic molecules. With a molecular mass of 150 kDa, a two-chain structure and complex glycosylation these challenges include a high cost of goods, limited delivery options, and poor solid tumour penetration. There remains an urgency to create alternatives to antibody scaffolds in a bid to circumvent these limitations, while maintaining or improving the therapeutic success of conventional mAb formats. Smaller, less complex binders, with increased domain valency, multi-specific/paratopic targeting, tuneable serum half-life and low inherent immunogenicity are a few of the characteristics being explored by the next generation of biologic molecules. One novel ‘antibody-like’ binder that has naturally evolved over 450 million years is the variable new antigen receptor (VNAR) identified as a key component of the adaptive immune system of sharks. At only 11 kDa, these single-domain structures are the smallest IgG-like proteins in the animal kingdom and provide an excellent platform for molecular engineering and biologics drug discovery. VNAR attributes include high affinity for target, ease of expression, stability, solubility, multi-specificity, and increased potential for solid tissue penetration. This review article documents the recent drug developmental milestones achieved for therapeutic VNARs and highlights the first reported evidence of the efficacy of these domains in clinically relevant models of disease.

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