El Niño Southern Oscillation and decadal climate variability impacts on crop yields and adaptation value.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (43) ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Minglu Wang ◽  
◽  
Yu-Kai Huang ◽  
Muxi Cheng ◽  
Bingru Sheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Research Issues ◽  
Decadal Climate

Ocean-atmospheric phenomena (OAP) have been found to be associated with regional climate variability and, in turn, agricultural production. Previous research has shown that advance information on OAP and its climate implications could provide valuable opportunities to adjust agriculture practices. In this study, we review OAP effects on crop yields, covering both shorter-term El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and longer-term ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Gradient (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We review both statistical approaches and simulation models that have been used to assess OAP impacts on crop yields. Findings show heterogeneous impacts across crops, regions, OAP phases, and seasons. Evidence also indicates that more frequent and extreme OAP phases would damage agriculture. However, economic gains could be achieved via adaptation strategies responding to the early release of OAP phase information. Discussions on current knowledge gaps and future research issues are included.

El Niño southern oscillation and decadal climate variability impacts on crop yields and adaptation value.

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (043) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-lu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Decadal Climate Variability ◽  
Research Issues ◽  
Decadal Climate

Abstract Ocean-atmospheric phenomena (OAP) have been found to be associated with regional climate variability and, in turn, agricultural production. Previous research has shown that advance information on OAP and its climate implications could provide valuable opportunities to adjust agriculture practices. In this study, we review OAP effects on crop yields, covering both shorter-term El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and longer-term ocean-related decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena, such as Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Tropical Atlantic Gradient (TAG), and the West Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). We review both statistical approaches and simulation models that have been used to assess OAP impacts on crop yields. Findings show heterogeneous impacts across crops, regions, OAP phases, and seasons. Evidence also indicates that more frequent and extreme OAP phases would damage agriculture. However, economic gains could be achieved via adaptation strategies responding to the early release of OAP phase information. Discussions on current knowledge gaps and future research issues are included.

VARIABILIDAD CLIMÁTICA, CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Y PESQUERÍAS EN EL ECUADOR.

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johnny Chavarría Viteri ◽  
Dennis Tomalá Solano
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Current Action ◽  
Palabras Clave

La variabilidad climática es la norma que ha modulado la vida en el planeta. Este trabajo demuestra que las pesquerías y acuicultura costera ecuatorianas no son la excepción, puesto que tales actividades están fuertemente influenciadas por la variabilidad ENSO (El Niño-Oscilación del Sur) y PDO (Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico), planteándose que la señal del cambio climático debe contribuir a esta influencia. Se destaca también que, en el análisis de los efectos de la variabilidad climática sobre los recursos pesqueros, el esfuerzo extractivo también debe ser considerado. Por su parte, la acción actual de la PDO está afectando la señal del cambio climático, encontrándose actualmente en fases opuestas. Se espera que estas señales entren en fase a finales de esta década, y principalmente durante la década de los 20 y consecuentemente se evidencien con mayor fuerza los efectos del Cambio Climático. Palabras Clave: Variabilidad Climática, Cambio Climático, ENSO, PDO, Pesquerías, Ecuador. ABSTRACT Climate variability is the standard that has modulated life in the planet. This work shows that the Ecuadorian  fisheries and aquaculture are not the exception, since such activities are strongly influenced by ENSO variability (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), considering that the signal of climate change should contribute to this influence. It also emphasizes that in the analysis of the effects of climate variability on the fishing resources, the extractive effort must also be considered. For its part, the current action of the PDO is affecting the signal of climate change, now found on opposite phases. It is hoped that these signals come into phase at the end of this decade, and especially during the decade of the 20’s and more strongly evidencing the effects of climate change. Keywords: Climate variability, climate change, ENSO (El Niño - Southern Oscillation) and PDO  (Pacific Decadal Oscillation); fisheries, Ecuador. Recibido: mayo, 2012Aprobado: agosto, 2012

scholarly journals The Value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation Forecasts to China’s Agriculture

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 4184 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaling Li ◽  
Fujin Yi ◽  
Yanjun Wang ◽  
Richard Gudaj
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Bayesian Decision

This study aims to estimate the value of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting to China’s agricultural sector. This study applies the Weibull distribution to model crop yields under different ENSO phases. Under the framework of Bayesian decision theory, this research pioneers the application of China’s Agricultural Sector Model to translate the yield effects resulting from ENSO variations into economic effects. Results show that ENSO exerts noticeable and heterogeneous effects on crop yields over selected crops across different regions. In addition, ENSO forecasting is useful for farmers’ cropping decisions and positively impacts economic surplus. The findings present that the value of this information is generally positive and rises with improved forecast accuracy, with the value of perfect forecasting estimated to be as substantial as CNY 3168 million. However, the value of ENSO forecasting is relatively small in the context of China’s tremendous agricultural output. This study is the first to evaluate the value of ENSO forecasting to China’s agriculture sector and has critical implications for the promotion of a Chinese ENSO forecast system.

scholarly journals Climate Impacts on Density Altitude and Aviation Operations

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (3) ◽  
pp. 517-523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Goodman ◽  
Jennifer D. Small Griswold
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Arctic Oscillation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Aircraft Performance ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation

AbstractA critical determinant of aircraft performance is density altitude, or the density given as a height above mean sea level, which is dependent on air temperature, pressure, and humidity. These meteorological variables change on various time scales (e.g., hourly, seasonal, and decadal) and are regionally impacted by large-scale climate variability as the result of phenomena such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation or the Arctic Oscillation. Here a statistical analysis is performed to determine the impacts of climate variability on seasonally averaged density altitude, a key metric used by pilots to determine aircraft performance and efficiency, as a function of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and historical aviation meteorological records. Regressions show regional dependencies and impacts to density altitudes that vary as a function of season for both El Niño–Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation cases. The results highlight the importance of understanding the regional nature of the impact of climate variability on density altitude and the potential impacts on aviation operations.

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