scholarly journals Mitigation strategies against supply disruption risk: a case study at the Ford Motor Company

Author(s):  
Ece Sanci ◽  
Mark S. Daskin ◽  
Young-Chae Hong ◽  
Steve Roesch ◽  
Don Zhang
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Eley Suzana Kasim ◽  
Dalila Daud ◽  
Jamaliah Said ◽  
Norlaila Md Zin ◽  
Elisa Kusrini

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Karagiannakis

This paper deals with state of the art risk and resilience calculations for industrial plants. Resilience is a top priority issue on the agenda of societies due to climate change and the all-time demand for human life safety and financial robustness. Industrial plants are highly complex systems containing a considerable number of equipment such as steel storage tanks, pipe rack-piping systems, and other installations. Loss Of Containment (LOC) scenarios triggered by past earthquakes due to failure on critical components were followed by severe repercussions on the community, long recovery times and great economic losses. Hence, facility planners and emergency managers should be aware of possible seismic damages and should have already established recovery plans to maximize the resilience and minimize the losses. Seismic risk assessment is the first step of resilience calculations, as it establishes possible damage scenarios. In order to have an accurate risk analysis, the plant equipment vulnerability must be assessed; this is made feasible either from fragility databases in the literature that refer to customized equipment or through numerical calculations. Two different approaches to fragility assessment will be discussed in this paper: (i) code-based Fragility Curves (FCs); and (ii) fragility curves based on numerical models. A carbon black process plant is used as a case study in order to display the influence of various fragility curve realizations taking their effects on risk and resilience calculations into account. Additionally, a new way of representing the total resilience of industrial installations is proposed. More precisely, all possible scenarios will be endowed with their weighted recovery curves (according to their probability of occurrence) and summed together. The result is a concise graph that can help stakeholders to identify critical plant equipment and make decisions on seismic mitigation strategies for plant safety and efficiency. Finally, possible mitigation strategies, like structural health monitoring and metamaterial-based seismic shields are addressed, in order to show how future developments may enhance plant resilience. The work presented hereafter represents a highly condensed application of the research done during the XP-RESILIENCE project, while more detailed information is available on the project website https://r.unitn.it/en/dicam/xp-resilience.


Author(s):  
Rory England ◽  
Nicholas Peirce ◽  
Joseph Torresi ◽  
Sean Mitchell ◽  
Andy Harland

AbstractA review of literature on the role of fomites in transmission of coronaviruses informed the development of a framework which was used to qualitatively analyse a cricket case study, where equipment is shared and passed around, and identify potential mitigation strategies. A range of pathways were identified that might in theory allow coronavirus transmission from an infected person to a non-infected person via communal or personal equipment fomites or both. Eighteen percent of potential fomite based interactions were found to be non-essential to play including all contact with another persons equipment. Six opportunities to interrupt the transmission pathway were identified, including the recommendation to screen participants for symptoms prior to play. Social distancing between participants and avoiding unnecessary surface contact provides two opportunities; firstly to avoid equipment exposure to infected respiratory droplets and secondly to avoid uninfected participants touching potential fomites. Hand sanitisation and equipment sanitisation provide two further opportunities by directly inactivating coronavirus. Preventing players from touching their mucosal membranes with their hands represents the sixth potential interruption. Whilst potential fomite transmission pathways were identified, evidence suggests that viral load will be substantially reduced during surface transfer. Mitigation strategies could further reduce potential fomites, suggesting that by comparison, direct airborne transmission presents the greater risk in cricket.


2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (7) ◽  
pp. 71-89
Author(s):  
Amy Barber, BSc ◽  
Annaëlle Vinzent, BS ◽  
Imani Williams, BA

Background: The COVID-19 crisis placed extraordinary demands on the supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) at the beginning of 2020. These were coupled with shocks to the supply chain resulting from the disease. Many typically well-resourced health systems faced subsequent shortages of equipment and had to implement new strategies to manage their stocks. Stockpiles of protective equipment were held in both the United States and United Kingdom intended to prevent shortages. Method: Cross-comparative case study approach by applying Pettigrew and Whipp’s framework for change management. Setting: The health systems of England and New York state from January 2020 to the end of April 2020. Results: Both cases reacted slowly to their outbreaks and faced problems with supplying enough PPE to their health systems. Their stockpiles were not enough to prevent shortages, with many distribution problems resulting from inadequate governance mechanisms. No sustainable responses to supply disruptions were implemented during the study period in either case. Health systems planned interventions along each part of the supply chain from production and importing, to usage guidelines. Conclusion: Global supply chains are vulnerable to disruptions caused by international crises, and existing mitigation strategies have not been wholly successful. The existence of stockpiles is insufficient to preventing shortages of necessary equipment in clinical settings. Both the governance and quality of stockpiles, as well as distribution channels are important for preventing shortages. At the time of writing, it is not possible to judge the strength of strategies adopted in these cases.


2021 ◽  
Vol 331 ◽  
pp. 07015
Author(s):  
Dian Pratiwi ◽  
Arniza Fitri ◽  
Arlina Phelia ◽  
Nabila Annisa Amara Adma ◽  
Kastamto

In the urban area, flooding becomes the most common disaster that has not been resolved until today. The utilization of river border area into housing and lack of absorption area becomes the trigger factor of urban flooding, as what is happening around Way Halim River on Seroja street. In this area, floods often happen during the rainy season, with the latest events recorded on January 21st, 2021. Analysis of flood intensities and discharges can be parameters for the decision-making of flood mitigation strategies. This study aims to analyze the flood discharges along Way Halim River, Seroja street by comparing the flood discharges resulting from three analysis methods of Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (SUH) including Gama I SUH, Nakayasu SUH, and Snyder SUH. Finally, suitable flood mitigation strategies were also proposed in this study based on the flood discharges and rain intensities. The results showed that Nakayasu SUH had the highest peak flood discharge than Snyder SUH and Gama I SUH. Based on the results of the investigation of land suitability; and analysis of rainfall intensities and flood discharges, the proposed flood mitigation in Seroja street is by installing biopore infiltration holes along Seroja street for storing water and reducing the risk of flooding in the area.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 344-356
Author(s):  
Michael Shattan ◽  
Adam Seybert ◽  
Robert Boone Gilbreath ◽  
Stephen Dahunsi ◽  
Howard L. Hall

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of tabletop exercises (TTXs) in graduate nuclear security education, their effectiveness and their relationship to traditional forms of classroom instruction. The paper highlights both the benefits and challenges of TTX implementation—the former including higher student motivation and material retention, and the latter including motivational shifts toward “winning” and possible student exclusionary behavior. Design/methodology/approach Survey results from 49 former students in a US university were collected electronically and combined with anecdotal evidence from student, facilitator and teaching assistant interviews following five iterations of a specifically designed, semester-long, TTX case study. The case study focused on securing a fictional nuclear facility. Findings Students found the TTX more memorable and retained more course material when asked to compare the TTX’s effectiveness to long-term course projects in other courses. Their in-class motivations tended to shift from traditional classroom motivations toward “winning,” and “not letting down their classmates.” In some iterations, students also observed classmates becoming more tempted to cheat or otherwise violate academic ethics. Mitigation strategies to prevent such temptations (e.g. removing direct student vs student TTX structures) were found to be effective. Originality/value This is the first report on the effective use of a semester-long TTX in a graduate nuclear security classroom. The flexibility of this instructional tool demonstrates its applicability to other classroom subjects including homeland security, emergency management, disease outbreak management and public policy among others.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 3293 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kelei Xue ◽  
Ya Xu ◽  
Lipan Feng

Supply disruption is a common phenomenon in industry, which brings destructive effects to downstream firms and damages the sustainability of the supply chain. To mitigate the supply disruption risk, the authors investigate two types of procurement strategies for a firm with two ordering opportunities. Through establishing Stackelberg game models, the authors drive the supplier’s optimal production, and the firm’s optimal procurement and replenishment strategies under the option purchase (OP) strategy and the procurement commitment (PC) strategy, respectively. The findings show that, under both types of strategies, the firm’s procurement follows a “threshold” principle. Moreover, the firm’s procurement quantity can be represented by two newsvendor solutions. A lower option price or option exercise price benefits the firm, while it damages the supplier. The supplier benefits from a higher mean value (MV) of emergency procurement price and the firm benefits from a lower market demand variability. Counter-intuitively, a lower MV of the emergency procurement price is not always beneficial to the firm. A higher market demand variability could be beneficial to the supplier under the PC strategy. The firm should first choose the PC strategy and then change to the OP strategy as the disruption risk increases.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Livia Serrao ◽  
Lorenzo Giovannini ◽  
Luz Elita Balcazar Terrones ◽  
Hugo Alfredo Huamaní Yupanqui ◽  
Dino Zardi

<p>Climatic characteristics and weather events have always conditioned the success of a harvest. Climate change and the associated increase in intense weather phenomena in recent years are making it clearer than ever that agriculture is among the sectors most at risk. Although problems in agriculture are found all over the world, the most vulnerable contexts are those where agriculture is low-tech and rainfed. Here, adaptation strategies are even more urgent to secure the food production. Assuming that the awareness of climate change is the basis for the adoption of adaptation and mitigation strategies, it is interesting to correlate the degree of perception of local inhabitants with their willingness to adopt bottom-up initiatives.</p><p>The current study focuses on banana producers’ perceptions of climate change in a tropical valley, and the initiatives that farmers adopt to cope with recent intense weather events. The banana plant (Musa Musacae) grows in tropical climates with annual rainfall around 2000 mm and average temperatures around 27°C. The species’ threadlike root system and the weak pseudostem make it particularly vulnerable to wind gusts, which, at speeds higher than 15 m/s, can bend and knock over entire plantations. The increased frequency of convective thunderstorms observed in connection with climate change has made downburst phenomena more frequent and caused greater crop loss.</p><p>The aim of the present work is to estimate the correlation between banana producers’ perceptions of climate change and their bottom-up initiatives for adaptation. To achieve this goal, the case study of the Upper Huallaga valley, which is located in the Peruvian Amazon region as shown in Figure 1, is analysed. The work was carried out at two levels: (i) we interviewed 73 banana producers in the valley, (ii) we estimated the alterations and trends in temperature and precipitation recorded by the only three available meteorological stations within the valley. Finally, we compared the two databases to evaluate if the perception of the population was confirmed by the data. Most of the surveyed population observed an increase in temperature, consistent with the results of the data analysis, and an increase in precipitation, which was not consistent with observations as these showed a cyclic variation without a clear trend. With regards to the adaptation measures, it was observed that, although a clear majority of the sample surveyed (around 82%) agreed with the existence of climate change, only 46% of them had taken any initiative to counteract adverse events in some way. However, it is important to note that the strategies implemented were all devised and implemented by the farmers themselves. Funding and coordinating the dissemination of these adaptation practices by the local authority through a rural development plan could certainly strengthen the population’s effort.</p><p><img src="https://contentmanager.copernicus.org/fileStorageProxy.php?f=gnp.34e8e7df2cff59382630161/sdaolpUECMynit/12UGE&app=m&a=0&c=59f620ca81f3a3bb7bb44139d499513c&ct=x&pn=gnp.elif&d=1" alt=""></p><p><em>Figure 1, On the left side: the Upper Huallaga basin. </em><em>On the right side: the study area</em></p>


2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 299 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. Beverly ◽  
P. Bothwell ◽  
J. C. R. Conner ◽  
E. P. K. Herd

We assessed the exposure of the built environment to potential ignition sources generated from vegetative fuel for four communities in the province of Alberta, Canada. Ignition processes generated by burning vegetation that were included in the analysis were radiant heat, short-range spotting, and longer-range spotting. Results were used to map the boundaries of the wildland–urban interface and to delineate zones within each community that identify the degree to which these areas represent potential wildfire entry-points into the wildland–urban interface. The assessment method can be used to set priorities for mitigation activities; compare conditions within and between communities and over time; and identify priority areas for time- and resource-intensive site assessments that are often completed for individual structures located in the wildland–urban interface. We compared results among the four case-study communities and demonstrated an application of the approach for evaluating community fuel treatment plans. Factors that influenced the exposure of the built environment to potential ignition sources differed among the communities, which suggested the need for community-specific mitigation strategies. Spatial patterns of areas with elevated ignition exposure reflected not only the amount of ignition-producing vegetation around the built environment, but also the size and arrangement of fuel patches in relation to the unique morphology of the community and the occurrence of occluded interface zones.


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