scholarly journals Oil price changes and stock returns: Fresh evidence from oil exporting and oil importing countries

2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Atif ◽  
Mustafa Raza Rabbani ◽  
Hana Bawazir ◽  
Iqbal Thonse Hawaldar ◽  
Daouia Chebab ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes

The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Industry Stock Returns: Evidence from International Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Elias Randjbaran ◽  
Reza Tahmoorespour ◽  
Marjan Rezvani ◽  
Meysam Safari
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Variation ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Price Fluctuations ◽  
Food And Beverage ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of oil price variation on 14 industries in six markets, including Canada, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Panel weekly data were collected from June 1998 to December 2011. The results indicate that price fluctuations primarily affect the Oil and Gas as well as the Mining industries and have the least influence on the Food and Beverage industry. Furthermore, in three out of six of these countries (Canada, France, and the U.K.), oil price changes negatively affect the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industry. One possible reason for the negative relationship between oil price changes and the Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology industries in the above-mentioned countries is that the governments of these countries fund their healthcare systems. Portfolio managers and investors will find the results of this study useful because it enables adjusting portfolios based on knowledge of the industries that are impacted the most or the least by oil price fluctuations.

scholarly journals Oil price risk in the Eurozone: a sectoral analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 108-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olfa Belhassine ◽  
Amira Ben Bouzid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Additional Risk Factor ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Relationship

This study investigates how oil price movements impact the main Eurozone industry supersectors returns. We use a multifactor market model in which we incorporate oil price changes as an additional risk factor. In order to account for possible breaks in the relationship, we use the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) breakpoints identification methodology. We find evidence of the presence of structural instabilities on the relationship between sector stock returns and oil price changes. Different breakpoints are identified, particularly the 2003 Iraq invasion year, the 2008 subprime crisis and the 2012 Euro debt crisis. Moreover, our results prove that stock return sensitivities to oil prices are time varying and sector dependent. Besides, the subprime financial crisis appears to induce a significantly positive effect on the oil-stock market nexus. However, the Euro debt crisis has a mostly negative effect. The other identified breakpoints do not seem to have any significant effect on the oil stock market nexus.

scholarly journals Oil prices changes and volatility in sector stock returns: Evidence from Australia, New Zealand, China, Germany and Norway

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 351-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geeta Duppati ◽  
Mengying Zhu
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Derivatives Pricing ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
Consumer Services

The paper examines the exposure of sectoral stock returns to oil price changes in Australia, China, Germany, New Zealand and Norway over the period 2000-2015 using weekly data drawn from DataStream. The issue of volatility has important implications for the theory of finance and as is well-known accurate volatility forecasts are important in a variety of settings including option and other derivatives pricing, portfolio and risk management (e.g. in the calculation of hedge ratios and Value-at-Risk measures), and trading strategies (David and Ruiz, 2009). This study adopts GARCH and EGARCH to understand the relationship between the returns and volatility. The findings using GARCH (EGARCH) models suggests that in the case of Germany eight (nine) out of ten sectors returns can be explained by the volatility of past oil price in Germany, while in the case of Australia, six (seven) out of ten sector returns are sensitive to the oil price changes with the exception of Industrials, Consumer Goods, Health care and Utilities. While in China and New Zealand five sectors are found sensitive to oil price changes and three sectors in Norway, namely Oil & Gas, Consumer Services and Financials. Secondly, this paper also investigated the exposure of the stock returns to oil price changes using market index data as a proxy using GARCH or EGARCH model. The results indicated that the stock returns are sensitive to the oil price changes and have leverage effects for all the five countries. Further, the findings also suggests that sector with more constituents is likely to have leverage effects and vice versa. The results have implications to market participants to make informed decisions about a better portfolio diversification for minimizing risk and adding value to the stocks.

scholarly journals Oil Price Based Trading And European Industry Sector Stocks

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 205
Author(s):  
Michael Soucek
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Industry Sector ◽  
Price Series ◽  
Individual Industry ◽  
European Industry ◽  
Sharpe Ratios ◽  
Industry Sectors

This study shows that the relationship between oil price changes and European stock market is significant and vary in relation to individual industry sectors. The oil price changes exhibit significant Granger causality for majority of European industry sector stock returns, but no cointegration could be determined for the price series. The results are proved to be economically exploitable for trading strategies. The trading rule based on the bivariate VAR( ) model for forecasting future stock returns significantly outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy in term of expected return and risk. It yields large Sharpe ratios and significant positive Jensen's alpha for both weekly and monthly data.

DAMPAK VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK DI INDONESIA TERHADAP PENYESUAIAN KESEIMBANGAN FISKAL

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 37-52
Author(s):  
Mahpud Sujai
Keyword(s):  
Linear Trend ◽  
The State ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Potential Output ◽  
Budget Cycle ◽  
Actual Output ◽  
The Impact

This paper is intended to analyze the effect of oil price changes on potential output and actual output in the state budget cycle and identifies the output gap which is the difference between potential output and actual output. The research methodology uses a quantitative approach to analyze problems that occur related to the impact of oil price changes to the state budget cycle. Data analysis was carried out through the approach cyclically adjusted fiscal balance with a simplified approach. This research identified that the potential output is likely to continue increasing in line with Indonesia's oil price trends which is continue to rise following the world oil price movements. In calculating the output gap using a linear trend and HP filter, the result is fuctuating depend on the percentage changes in both potential output and actual output. This paper concludes that Indonesian oil price (ICP) has a significant impact on changes in the state budget cycle. If oil prices rise, the output gap between potential output and actual output is greater, and vice versa. This will make the budget vulnerable to shock that occurs as an external infuence.

The Effects of Oil Prices Changes on Output Growth and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (11) ◽  
pp. 730-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the effects of oil price changes on output and inflation for the case of Turkey using monthly time series data for the period 1990:1–2012:3. Recent studies suggest that oil price changes may have asymmetric effects on the macroeconomic variables. To account for asymmetric effects, we decompose oil price changes into positive and negative parts following Hamilton (1996). Our results show that while oil price increases have clear negative effects on output growth, the impact of oil price decline is insignificant. Similarly, oil price increases have positive and significant effects on inflation. However, oil price declines have not a significant effect on inflation. The Granger causality tests also support these results.

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