scholarly journals A Modified SIR Model for the COVID-19 Epidemic in China

2022 ◽  
Vol 2148 (1) ◽  
pp. 012002
Author(s):  
Jiale Wang ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Xusheng Liu ◽  
Keming Shen
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependence ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Prevention And Treatment ◽  
Strongly Connected ◽  
The Government

Abstract The analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is of great importance to deeply understand the dynamics of this coronavirus spread. Based on the complexity of it, a modified susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is applied to analyse the time dependence of active and hospitalized cases in China. The time evolution of the virus spread in different provinces was adequately modelled. Changeable parameters among them have been obtained and turned to be not naively independent with each other. The non-extensive parameter was found to be strongly connected with the freedom of systems. Taken into the prevention and treatment of disease, more measures by the government lead to higher values of it.

scholarly journals A modified SIR model for the COVID-19 epidemic in China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jia-Le Wang ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Xu-Sheng Liu ◽  
Ke-Ming Shen
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependence ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Prevention And Treatment ◽  
Strongly Connected ◽  
The Government

Abstract The analysis of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is of great importance to deeply understand the dynamics of this coronavirus spread. Based on the complexity of it, a modified susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model is applied to analyze the time dependence of active and hospitalized cases in China. The time evolution of the virus spread in different provinces was adequately modeled. Changeable parameters among them have been obtained and turned to be not naively independent with each other. The non-extensive parameter was found to be strongly connected with the freedom of systems. Taken into the prevention and treatment of disease, more measures by the government lead to higher values of it.

Covid-19 Cases in India: A Visual Exploratory Data Analysis Model (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayesh S
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
First Case ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
The Government

UNSTRUCTURED Covid-19 outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, China. The deadly virus spread not just the disease, but fear around the globe. On January 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). First case of Covid-19 in India was reported on January 30, 2020. By the time, India was prepared in fighting against the virus. India has taken various measures to tackle the situation. In this paper, an exploratory data analysis of Covid-19 cases in India is carried out. Data namely number of cases, testing done, Case Fatality ratio, Number of deaths, change in visits stringency index and measures taken by the government is used for modelling and visual exploratory data analysis.

scholarly journals An adaptive social distancing SIR model for COVID-19 disease spreading and forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (s1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Gounane ◽  
Yassir Barkouch ◽  
Abdelghafour Atlas ◽  
Mostafa Bendahmane ◽  
Fahd Karami ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Theory ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Epidemic Threshold ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Recently, various mathematical models have been proposed to model COVID-19 outbreak. These models are an effective tool to study the mechanisms of coronavirus spreading and to predict the future course of COVID-19 disease. They are also used to evaluate strategies to control this pandemic. Generally, SIR compartmental models are appropriate for understanding and predicting the dynamics of infectious diseases like COVID-19. The classical SIR model is initially introduced by Kermack and McKendrick (cf. (Anderson, R. M. 1991. “Discussion: the Kermack–McKendrick Epidemic Threshold Theorem.” Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 53 (1): 3–32; Kermack, W. O., and A. G. McKendrick. 1927. “A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics.” Proceedings of the Royal Society 115 (772): 700–21)) to describe the evolution of the susceptible, infected and recovered compartment. Focused on the impact of public policies designed to contain this pandemic, we develop a new nonlinear SIR epidemic problem modeling the spreading of coronavirus under the effect of a social distancing induced by the government measures to stop coronavirus spreading. To find the parameters adopted for each country (for e.g. Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Algeria and Morocco) we fit the proposed model with respect to the actual real data. We also evaluate the government measures in each country with respect to the evolution of the pandemic. Our numerical simulations can be used to provide an effective tool for predicting the spread of the disease.

scholarly journals Renormalization Group Approach to Pandemics as a Time-Dependent SIR Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele Della Morte ◽  
Francesco Sannino
Keyword(s):  
Renormalization Group ◽  
Time Dependence ◽  
Recovery Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Group Approach ◽  
Renormalization Group Approach

We generalise the epidemic Renormalization Group framework while connecting it to a SIR model with time-dependent coefficients. We then confront the model with COVID-19 in Denmark, Germany, Italy and France and show that the approach works rather well in reproducing the data. We also show that a better understanding of the time dependence of the recovery rate would require extending the model to take into account the number of deaths whenever these are over 15% of the cumulative number of infected cases.

scholarly journals Comparison of the Evolution of the COVID-19 Disease between Romania and Italy

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Ciprian Chiruţă ◽  
Emilian Bulgariu ◽  
Jurij Avsec ◽  
Brigita Ferčec ◽  
Matej Mencinger
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
A Value ◽  
The Government ◽  
Second Peak

After the outbreak of COVID-19 in Italy, thousands of Romanian citizens who worked in Northern Italy, Spain or Germany returned to Romania. Based on the time-dependent susceptible–infected–recovered—SIR model, this paper compares the evolution of the COVID-19 disease between Romania and Italy, assuming that the parameter value of R0 in the time-dependent SIR model decreases to R1 < R0 after publicly announced restrictions by the government, and increases to a value of R2 < R1 when the restrictions are lifted. Among other things, we answer the questions about the date and extent of the second peak in Italy and Romania with respect to different values of R2 and the duration of the restrictions.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF THE EMERGENCY HEADQUARTERS OF THE CITY OF КRALJEVO IN THE FIGHT AGAINST COVID-19 PANDEMIC

2021 ◽  
pp. 263-276
Author(s):  
PREDRAG TERZIĆ
Keyword(s):  
City Council ◽  
State Of Emergency ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
Prevention And Treatment ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Continuous Work ◽  
The City ◽  
Work Method

The article deals with a detailed analysis of measures taken in the territory of the city of Kraljevo during the state of emergency in the Republic of Serbia (March 15- May 6, 2020) caused by the epidemic of COVID-19 virus, as well as the achieved results. The greatest success was achieved in the field of prevention, where the City Emergency Headquarters played the crucial role by focusing on the Plan for Prevention and Treatment in Case of Epidemics-Pandemics, adopted at the City Council session held on March 26, 2020. This is the first document concerning prevention and treatment from infection with the COVID-19 virus, which was adopted by a local self-government unit in Serbia. In addition to the basic ones, the activities of the City Headquarters are also researched in two special dimensions: 1) vertical, which concerns the coordination of activities with the competent republic institutions; 2) horizontal, which refers to professional and material assistance to other local self-government units through the Standing Conference of Towns and Municipalities. The author concludes that several interrelated factors were of crucial importance in the prevention and reduction of the possibility of contracting the COVID-19 virus in the territory of the city of Kraljevo: 1) the document Plan for Prevention and Treatment in Case of Epidemics-Pandemics; as a type of legal basis for the functioning of the City Headquarters for Emergency Situations 2) the work method of the City Headquarters for Emergency Situations, which timely and strategically directed the activities of all entities involved in the prevention of the spread of the virus; 3) coordination of activities of the City Headquarters for Emergency Situations with republic institutions and harmonization of actions with measures of the Government of the Republic of Serbia; 4) consistent and continuous work of the The Emergency Situations City Headquarters on the maximum engagement of the capacities of all city services and republic bodies on the territory of the city of Kraljevo in the function of preventing the spread of COVID-19 virus infection.

scholarly journals SIMLR: Machine Learning inside the SIR Model for COVID-19 Forecasting

Forecasting ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-94
Author(s):  
Roberto Vega ◽  
Leonardo Flores ◽  
Russell Greiner
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Average Percentage ◽  
Interpretable Model ◽  
The Government ◽  
Average Percentage Error ◽  
Government Level

Accurate forecasts of the number of newly infected people during an epidemic are critical for making effective timely decisions. This paper addresses this challenge using the SIMLR model, which incorporates machine learning (ML) into the epidemiological SIR model. For each region, SIMLR tracks the changes in the policies implemented at the government level, which it uses to estimate the time-varying parameters of an SIR model for forecasting the number of new infections one to four weeks in advance. It also forecasts the probability of changes in those government policies at each of these future times, which is essential for the longer-range forecasts. We applied SIMLR to data from in Canada and the United States, and show that its mean average percentage error is as good as state-of-the-art forecasting models, with the added advantage of being an interpretable model. We expect that this approach will be useful not only for forecasting COVID-19 infections, but also in predicting the evolution of other infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Study on Opioids Diffusion Based on Improved SIR Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Yaning Tan ◽  
Jiaqi Wu ◽  
Zeming Jin
Keyword(s):  
Drug Abuse ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Data Set ◽  
The Government ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Accuracy And Stability

The abuse of opioids is harmful to the national economy and health. The U.S. government has spent a lot of time, energy and money to deal with this phenomenon. Based on the topic background and team discussion, we deeply excavated the data and information provided in the topic, determined the current use of opioids, and constructed an improved SIR model to determine the source of drug abuse, the mechanism of drug abuse diffusion and the origin of each state through reverse derivation, which provided guidance for the government in the context of opioid abuse.Based on the above results, we simulated and analyzed the improved SIR model and determined the accuracy and stability of the model in the data set.

scholarly journals The Learn From Home and Alienation

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-137
Author(s):  
Agustin Sukses Dakhi
Keyword(s):  
High School Students ◽  
Junior High School ◽  
School Environment ◽  
Junior High ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
School Students ◽  
Learning At Home ◽  
The Government ◽  
Class Room ◽  
The Town

Since the outbreak of corona virus spread in the ground water, has an effect on the world of education. The government took the policy to learn from home then the process of learning takes place online or online with the use of various applications such as Zoom, WhatsApp, Google Classroom, Google Meet, Cisco Webex, including learning through TVRI. Thus already four months the students not to school, not with friends, not meet with the teacher, no learning process in the class room, not in the school environment. This study aims to describe the state of alienation or alienated experienced by students since the learning at home. Data collection techniques with interviews to Junior high school students around the town of teluk-dalam road. The results showed that the Junior high students around the town of teluk-dalam road experiencing the symptoms of alienation.

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