scholarly journals Unprecedented acceleration of winter discharge of Upper Yenisei River inferred from tree rings

Author(s):  
Irina Panyushkina ◽  
David M Meko ◽  
Alexander Shiklomanov ◽  
Richard D Thaxton ◽  
Vladimyr Myglan ◽  
...  

Abstract The Yenisei River is the largest contributor of freshwater and energy fluxes among all rivers draining to the Arctic Ocean. Modeling long-term variability of Eurasian runoff to the Arctic Ocean is complicated by the considerable variability of river discharge in time and space, and the monitoring constraints imposed by a sparse gauged-flow network and paucity of satellite data. We quantify tree growth response to river discharge at the upper reaches of the Yenisei River in Tuva, South Siberia. Two regression models built from eight tree-ring width chronologies of Larix sibirica are applied to reconstruct winter (Nov–Apr) discharge for the period 1784-1997 (214 years), and annual (Oct–Sept) discharge for the period 1701–2000 (300 years). The Nov–Apr model explains 52% of the discharge variance whereas Oct–Sept explains 26% for the calibration intervals 1927–1997 and 1927-2000, respectively. This new hydrological archive doubles the length of the instrumental discharge record at the Kyzyl gauge and resets the temporal background of discharge variability back to 1784. The reconstruction finds a remarkable 80% upsurge in winter flow over the last 25 years, which is unprecedented in the last 214 years. In contrast, annual discharge fluctuated normally for this system, with only a 7% increase over the last 25 years. Water balance modeling with CRU data manifests a significant discrepancy between decadal variability of the gauged flow and climate data after 1960. We discuss the impact on the baseflow rate change of both the accelerating permafrost warming in the discontinuous zone of South Siberia and widespread forest fires. The winter discharge accounts for only one-third of the annual flow, yet the persistent 25-year upsurge is alarming. This trend is likely caused by Arctic Amplification, which can be further magnified by increased winter flow delivering significantly more freshwater to the Kara Sea during the cold season.

1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Holt ◽  
P. M. Kelly ◽  
B. S. G. Cherry

Soviet plans to divert water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean have led to research into the impact of a reduction in discharge on Arctic sea ice. We consider the mechanisms by which discharge reductions might affect sea-ice cover and then test various hypotheses related to these mechanisms. We find several large areas over which sea-ice concentration correlates significantly with variations in river discharge, supporting two particular hypotheses. The first hypothesis concerns the area where the initial impacts are likely to which is the Kara Sea. Reduced riverflow is associated occur, with decreased sea-ice concentration in October, at the time of ice formation. This is believed to be the result of decreased freshening of the surface layer. The second hypothesis concerns possible effects on the large-scale current system of the Arctic Ocean and, in particular, on the inflow of Atlantic and Pacific water. These effects occur as a result of changes in the strength of northward-flowing gradient currents associated with variations in river discharge. Although it is still not certain that substantial transfers of riverflow will take place, it is concluded that the possibility of significant cryospheric effects and, hence, large-scale climate impact should not be neglected.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daria Polosukhina ◽  
Anatoly Prokushkin ◽  
Axel Steinhof

<p>There is the significant progress in recent decades in the quantification of terrigenous carbon release to the rivers of the Arctic Ocean basin and characterization of its chemical properties, origin and age (e.g. Amon et al., 2012, Holmes et al., 2012). As warming accelerates the thawing permafrost may potentially increase the release the ancient carbon (Wild et al., 2019, Estop-Aragonés et al., 2020). However, more detailed analysis is still needed particularly in regard of the age of carbon exported from the diverse landscapes of large Arctic rivers and its transformation during the transport to the Arctic ocean.</p><p>In this study we analyzed D14C in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon (POC) of the Yenisei River main channel and its major tributaries between 56oN and 68oN at freshet, summer and fall seasons. D14C was measured in Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (Germany) by the accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) system based on a 3MV Tandetron accelerator as described earlier (Steinhof et al., 2017).</p><p> The oldest DOC in the Yenisei main stem was detected right after the Krasnoyarsk dam (56oN) and varied during a year without clear seasonal pattern in the range of the fraction of modern C (fMC) from 0.868 to 1.028. At freshet the fMC increased down stream up to 1.12 at 60oN and then remained relatively stable between 61o and 67.4oN (1.097±0.014). The major tributaries released DOC with fMC ranging from 1.0869 (Angara, 58oN) to 1.1046 (Kurejka (66.5oN), demonstrating more modern C with latitude. During the summer-fall season the Yenisei main channel and main Eastern tributaries contained older DOC (fMC = 0.968-1.054 and 0.949-1.045, respectively).</p><p>The POC of the Yenisei River was sufficiently older (fMC = 0.83-0.92) than DOC at all seasons and showed similar latitudinal pattern, i.e. the youngest POC was detected near 60-61oN (fMC > 0.90). The D14C-POC values in analyzed tributaries were increasing with latitude at freshet (R2 = 0.53) and summer lowflow (R2 = 0.33), except the largest Eastern tributaries, demonstrating the slight opposite pattern. On the other hand, increasingly more ancient POC was releasing by permafrost-dominated Eastern tributaries with increasing basin size. In opposite, D14C-POC of Western tributaries showed increased input of more recently fixed carbon. Our findings provided new data on the formation of terrigenic carbon fluxes to the Arctic Ocean from one of the largest river basins in the Arctic. This study was supported by RFBR grants #18-05-60203-Arktika. The radiocarbon analyses were kindly supported by Max-Plank Institute for biogeochemistry (ZOTTO project).</p>


2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3129-3157 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Thorne

Abstract. Freshwater inputs from the Mackenzie River into the Arctic Ocean contribute to the control of oceanic dynamics and sea ice cover duration. Half of the annual runoff from the Mackenzie River drains from mountainous regions, where the Liard River, with a drainage area of 275 000 km2, is especially influential. The impact of projected atmospheric warming on the discharge of the Liard River is unclear. Here, uncertainty in climate projections associated with GCM structure (2 °C prescribed warming) and magnitude of increases in global mean air temperature (1 to 6 °C) on the river discharge are assessed using SLURP, a well-tested hydrological model. Most climate projections indicate (1) warming in this subarctic environment that is greater than the global mean and (2) an increase in precipitation across the basin. These changes lead to an earlier spring freshet (1 to 12 days earlier), a decrease in summer runoff (up to 22%) due to enhanced evaporation, and an increase in autumn flow (up to 48%), leading to higher annual discharge and more freshwater input from the Liard River to the Arctic Ocean. All simulations project that the subarctic nival regime will be preserved in the future but the magnitude of changes in river discharge is highly uncertain (ranging from a decrease of 3% to an increase of 15% in annual runoff), due to differences in GCM projections of basin-wide temperature and precipitation.


1984 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 61-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Holt ◽  
P. M. Kelly ◽  
B. S. G. Cherry

Soviet plans to divert water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean have led to research into the impact of a reduction in discharge on Arctic sea ice. We consider the mechanisms by which discharge reductions might affect sea-ice cover and then test various hypotheses related to these mechanisms. We find several large areas over which sea-ice concentration correlates significantly with variations in river discharge, supporting two particular hypotheses. The first hypothesis concerns the area where the initial impacts are likely to which is the Kara Sea. Reduced riverflow is associated occur, with decreased sea-ice concentration in October, at the time of ice formation. This is believed to be the result of decreased freshening of the surface layer. The second hypothesis concerns possible effects on the large-scale current system of the Arctic Ocean and, in particular, on the inflow of Atlantic and Pacific water. These effects occur as a result of changes in the strength of northward-flowing gradient currents associated with variations in river discharge. Although it is still not certain that substantial transfers of riverflow will take place, it is concluded that the possibility of significant cryospheric effects and, hence, large-scale climate impact should not be neglected.


2019 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 118-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Fabre ◽  
S. Sauvage ◽  
N. Tananaev ◽  
G. Espitalier Noël ◽  
R. Teisserenc ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Bedington ◽  
Ricardo Torres ◽  
Luca Polimene ◽  
Paul Mann ◽  
Jens Strauss

<p>The Arctic ocean receives 11% of the global river discharge and the Arctic rivers drain large permafrost rich catchments. Where these rivers outflow into the marginal shelf seas of the Arctic ocean the terrestrial dissolved organic matter (tDOM) which they transport has an important role to play in the coastal ecosystem. This tDom is derived from inland permafrost and as it thaws under future climate scenarios there are expected to be changes to both the composition and quantity of riverine tDOM. At the same time there will be changes to the seasonality and magnitude of river discharge, due to increased precipitation and earlier snow melt, and to the light availability, due to reduced seasonal sea ice. To understand the possible impact of these changes on the coastal ecosystem it is important to understand the present role of permafrost derived tDOM and the possible changes to the nearshore circulation.</p><p>We model the hydrodynamics of the extensive shallow shelf of the Laptev sea, into which drains the Lena river – the 13<sup>th</sup> largest in the world by discharge. The output from the hydrodynamic model is used to drive the ecosystem model ERSEM which has been adapted to explicitly include a permafrost tDOM input. This coupled model system allows us to investigate both the role of present day tDOM in an Arctic coastal ecosystem and to hypothesise on the impact of increases in future. In particular we attempt to quantify the efficacy of the microbial carbon pump under different tDOM inputs.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (10) ◽  
pp. 3799-3819
Author(s):  
Hyung-Gyu Lim ◽  
Jong-Yeon Park ◽  
John P. Dunne ◽  
Charles A. Stock ◽  
Sung-Ho Kang ◽  
...  

AbstractHuman activities such as fossil fuel combustion, land-use change, nitrogen (N) fertilizer use, emission of livestock, and waste excretion accelerate the transformation of reactive N and its impact on the marine environment. This study elucidates that anthropogenic N fluxes (ANFs) from atmospheric and river deposition exacerbate Arctic warming and sea ice loss via physical–biological feedback. The impact of physical–biological feedback is quantified through a suite of experiments using a coupled climate–ocean–biogeochemical model (GFDL-CM2.1-TOPAZ) by prescribing the preindustrial and contemporary amounts of riverine and atmospheric N fluxes into the Arctic Ocean. The experiment forced by ANFs represents the increase in ocean N inventory and chlorophyll concentrations in present and projected future Arctic Ocean relative to the experiment forced by preindustrial N flux inputs. The enhanced chlorophyll concentrations by ANFs reinforce shortwave attenuation in the upper ocean, generating additional warming in the Arctic Ocean. The strongest responses are simulated in the Eurasian shelf seas (Kara, Barents, and Laptev Seas; 65°–90°N, 20°–160°E) due to increased N fluxes, where the annual mean surface temperature increase by 12% and the annual mean sea ice concentration decrease by 17% relative to the future projection, forced by preindustrial N inputs.


2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. E. Popova ◽  
A. Yool ◽  
Y. Aksenov ◽  
A. C. Coward ◽  
T. R. Anderson

Abstract. The Arctic Ocean is a region that is particularly vulnerable to the impact of ocean acidification driven by rising atmospheric CO2, with potentially negative consequences for calcifying organisms such as coccolithophorids and foraminiferans. In this study, we use an ocean-only general circulation model, with embedded biogeochemistry and a comprehensive description of the ocean carbon cycle, to study the response of pH and saturation states of calcite and aragonite to rising atmospheric pCO2 and changing climate in the Arctic Ocean. Particular attention is paid to the strong regional variability within the Arctic, and, for comparison, simulation results are contrasted with those for the global ocean. Simulations were run to year 2099 using the RCP8.5 (an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenario with the highest concentrations of atmospheric CO2). The separate impacts of the direct increase in atmospheric CO2 and indirect effects via impact of climate change (changing temperature, stratification, primary production and freshwater fluxes) were examined by undertaking two simulations, one with the full system and the other in which atmospheric CO2 was prevented from increasing beyond its preindustrial level (year 1860). Results indicate that the impact of climate change, and spatial heterogeneity thereof, plays a strong role in the declines in pH and carbonate saturation (Ω) seen in the Arctic. The central Arctic, Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Baffin Bay show greatest rates of acidification and Ω decline as a result of melting sea ice. In contrast, areas affected by Atlantic inflow including the Greenland Sea and outer shelves of the Barents, Kara and Laptev seas, had minimal decreases in pH and Ω because diminishing ice cover led to greater vertical mixing and primary production. As a consequence, the projected onset of undersaturation in respect to aragonite is highly variable regionally within the Arctic, occurring during the decade of 2000–2010 in the Siberian shelves and Canadian Arctic Archipelago, but as late as the 2080s in the Barents and Norwegian seas. We conclude that, for future projections of acidification and carbonate saturation state in the Arctic, regional variability is significant and needs to be adequately resolved, with particular emphasis on reliable projections of the rates of retreat of the sea ice, which are a major source of uncertainty.


2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiang Wang ◽  
Claudia Wekerle ◽  
Sergey Danilov ◽  
Dmitry Sidorenko ◽  
Nikolay Koldunov ◽  
...  

Abstract The freshwater stored in the Arctic Ocean is an important component of the global climate system. Currently the Arctic liquid freshwater content (FWC) has reached a record high since the beginning of the last century. In this study we use numerical simulations to investigate the impact of sea ice decline on the Arctic liquid FWC and its spatial distribution. The global unstructured-mesh ocean general circulation model Finite Element Sea Ice–Ocean Model (FESOM) with 4.5-km horizontal resolution in the Arctic region is applied. The simulations show that sea ice decline increases the FWC by freshening the ocean through sea ice meltwater and modifies upper ocean circulation at the same time. The two effects together significantly increase the freshwater stored in the Amerasian basin and reduce its amount in the Eurasian basin. The salinification of the upper Eurasian basin is mainly caused by the reduction in the proportion of Pacific Water and the increase in that of Atlantic Water (AW). Consequently, the sea ice decline did not significantly contribute to the observed rapid increase in the Arctic total liquid FWC. However, the changes in the Arctic freshwater spatial distribution indicate that the influence of sea ice decline on the ocean environment is remarkable. Sea ice decline increases the amount of Barents Sea branch AW in the upper Arctic Ocean, thus reducing its supply to the deeper Arctic layers. This study suggests that all the dynamical processes sensitive to sea ice decline should be taken into account when understanding and predicting Arctic changes.


2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 2093-2143 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. P. Semiletov ◽  
I. I. Pipko ◽  
N. E. Shakhova ◽  
O. V. Dudarev ◽  
S. P. Pugach ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Lena River integrates biogeochemical signals from its vast drainage basin and its signal reaches far out over the Arctic Ocean. Transformation of riverine organic carbon into mineral carbon, and mineral carbon into the organic form in the Lena River watershed, can be considered a quasi-equilibrated processes. Increasing the Lena discharge causes opposite effects on total organic (TOC) and inorganic (TCO2) carbon: TOC concentration increases, while TCO2 concentration decreases. Significant inter-annual variability in mean values of TCO2, TOC, and their sum (TC) has been found. This variability is determined by changes in land hydrology which cause differences in the Lena River discharge, because a negative correlation may be found between TC in September and mean discharge in August (a time shift of about one month is required for water to travel from Yakutsk to the Laptev Sea). Total carbon entering the sea with the Lena discharge is estimated to be almost 10 Tg C y−1. The annual Lena River discharge of particulate organic carbon (POC) may be equal to 0.38 Tg (moderate to high estimate). If we instead accept Lisytsin's (1994) statement concerning the precipitation of 85–95% of total particulate matter (PM) (and POC) on the marginal "filter", then only about 0.03–0.04 Tg of POC reaches the Laptev Sea from the Lena River. The Lena's POC export would then be two orders of magnitude less than the annual input of eroded terrestrial carbon onto the shelf of the Laptev and East Siberian seas, which is about 4 Tg. The Lena River is characterized by relatively high concentrations of primary greenhouse gases: CO2 and dissolved CH4. During all seasons the river is supersaturated in CO2 compared to the atmosphere: up to 1.5–2 fold in summer, and 4–5 fold in winter. This results in a narrow zone of significant CO2 supersaturation in the adjacent coastal sea. Spots of dissolved CH4 in the Lena delta channels may reach 100 nM, but the CH4 concentration decreases to 5–20 nM towards the sea, which suggests only a minor role of riverborne export of CH4 for the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) CH4 budget in coastal waters. Instead, the seabed appears to be the source that provides most of the CH4 to the Arctic Ocean.


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