scholarly journals Uncertainty analysis of numerical inversions of temperature logs from boreholes under injection conditions

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1022-1034
Author(s):  
Jia Wang ◽  
Fabian Nitschke ◽  
Emmanuel Gaucher ◽  
Thomas Kohl
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Sampling ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Rock Physics ◽  
Temperature Data ◽  
Thermal Recovery ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Borehole Data ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Flow Loss

Abstract Conventional methods to estimate the static formation temperature (SFT) require borehole temperature data measured during thermal recovery periods. This can be both economically and technically prohibitive under real operational conditions, especially for high-temperature boreholes. This study investigates the use of temperature logs obtained under injection conditions to determine SFT through inverse modelling. An adaptive sampling approach based on machine-learning techniques is applied to explore the model space efficiently by iteratively proposing samples based on the results of previous runs. Synthetic case studies are conducted with rigorous evaluation of factors affecting the quality of SFT estimates for deep hot wells. The results show that using temperature data measured at higher flow rates or after longer injection times could lead to less-reliable results. Furthermore, the estimation error exhibits an almost linear dependency on the standard error of the measured borehole temperatures. In addition, potential flow loss zones in the borehole would lead to increased uncertainties in the SFT estimates. Consequently, any prior knowledge about the amount of flow loss could improve the estimation accuracy considerably. For formations with thermal gradients varying with depth, prior information on the depth of the gradient change is necessary to avoid spurious results. The inversion scheme presented is demonstrated as an efficient tool for quantifying uncertainty in the interpretation of borehole data. Although only temperature data are considered in this work, other types of data such as flow and transport measurements can also be included in this method for geophysical and rock physics studies.

Flow-loss

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 2019-2032
Author(s):  
Parimarjan Negi ◽  
Ryan Marcus ◽  
Andreas Kipf ◽  
Hongzi Mao ◽  
Nesime Tatbul ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Query Optimization ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Cost Model ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Routing Problem ◽  
Cardinality Estimation ◽  
Flow Loss

Recently there has been significant interest in using machine learning to improve the accuracy of cardinality estimation. This work has focused on improving average estimation error, but not all estimates matter equally for downstream tasks like query optimization. Since learned models inevitably make mistakes, the goal should be to improve the estimates that make the biggest difference to an optimizer. We introduce a new loss function, Flow-Loss, for learning cardinality estimation models. Flow-Loss approximates the optimizer's cost model and search algorithm with analytical functions, which it uses to optimize explicitly for better query plans. At the heart of Flow-Loss is a reduction of query optimization to a flow routing problem on a certain "plan graph", in which different paths correspond to different query plans. To evaluate our approach, we introduce the Cardinality Estimation Benchmark (CEB) which contains the ground truth cardinalities for sub-plans of over 16 K queries from 21 templates with up to 15 joins. We show that across different architectures and databases, a model trained with Flow-Loss improves the plan costs and query runtimes despite having worse estimation accuracy than a model trained with Q-Error. When the test set queries closely match the training queries, models trained with both loss functions perform well. However, the Q-Error-trained model degrades significantly when evaluated on slightly different queries (e.g., similar but unseen query templates), while the Flow-Loss-trained model generalizes better to such situations, achieving 4 -- 8× better 99th percentile runtimes on unseen templates with the same model architecture and training data.

scholarly journals Optimal Tuner Selection for Kalman Filter-Based Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation

2009 ◽  
Vol 132 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald L. Simon ◽  
Sanjay Garg
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Engine Performance ◽  
Aircraft Engine ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Performance Estimation ◽  
Experimental Simulation ◽  
Tuning Parameter ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
On Line

A linear point design methodology for minimizing the error in on-line Kalman filter-based aircraft engine performance estimation applications is presented. This technique specifically addresses the underdetermined estimation problem, where there are more unknown parameters than available sensor measurements. A systematic approach is applied to produce a model tuning parameter vector of appropriate dimension to enable estimation by a Kalman filter, while minimizing the estimation error in the parameters of interest. Tuning parameter selection is performed using a multivariable iterative search routine that seeks to minimize the theoretical mean-squared estimation error. This paper derives theoretical Kalman filter estimation error bias and variance values at steady-state operating conditions, and presents the tuner selection routine applied to minimize these values. Results from the application of the technique to an aircraft engine simulation are presented and compared with the conventional approach of tuner selection. Experimental simulation results are found to be in agreement with theoretical predictions. The new methodology is shown to yield a significant improvement in on-line engine performance estimation accuracy.

Assessment of 2D ultrasound fluid volume estimation accuracy in different shaped objects: an in vitro study

2019 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-259
Author(s):  
Iroshani Kodikara ◽  
Iroshini Abeysekara ◽  
Dhanusha Gamage ◽  
Isurani Ilayperuma
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Error ◽  
In Vitro Study ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Volume Estimation ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Rater Agreement ◽  
Actual Volume ◽  
2D Ultrasound ◽  
One Way Anova

Background Volume estimation of organs using two-dimensional (2D) ultrasonography is frequently warranted. Considering the influence of estimated volume on patient management, maintenance of its high accuracy is empirical. However, data are scarce regarding the accuracy of estimated volume of non-globular shaped objects of different volumes. Purpose To evaluate the volume estimation accuracy of different shaped and sized objects using high-end 2D ultrasound scanners. Material and Methods Globular (n=5); non-globular elongated (n=5), and non-globular near-spherical shaped (n=4) hollow plastic objects were scanned to estimate the volumes; actual volumes were compared with estimated volumes. T-test and one-way ANOVA were used to compare means; P<0.05 was considered significant. Results The actual volumes of the objects were in the range of 10–445 mL; estimated volumes ranged from 6.4–425 mL ( P=0.067). The estimated volume was lower than the actual volume; such volume underestimation was marked for non-globular elongated objects. Regardless of the scanner, the highest volume estimation error was for non-globular elongated objects (<40%) followed by non-globular near-spherical shaped objects (<23.88%); the lowest was for globular objects (<3.6%). Irrespective of the shape or the volume of the object, volume estimation difference among the scanners was not significant: globular (F=0.430, P=0.66); non-globular elongated (F=3.69, P=0.064); and non-globular near-spherical (F=4.00, P=0.06). A good inter-rater agreement (R=0.99, P<0.001) and a good correlation between actual versus estimated volumes (R=0.98, P<0.001) were noted. Conclusion The 2D ultrasonography can be recommended for volume estimation purposes of different shaped and different sized objects, regardless the type of the high-end scanner used.

Synthetic Sonic Log Generation With Machine Learning: A Contest Summary From Five Methods

2021 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-406
Author(s):  
Yanxiang Yu ◽  
◽  
Chicheng Xu ◽  
Siddharth Misra ◽  
Weichang Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Test Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Rock Physics ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Blind Test ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Benchmark Model ◽  
Sonic Log

Compressional and shear sonic traveltime logs (DTC and DTS, respectively) are crucial for subsurface characterization and seismic-well tie. However, these two logs are often missing or incomplete in many oil and gas wells. Therefore, many petrophysical and geophysical workflows include sonic log synthetization or pseudo-log generation based on multivariate regression or rock physics relations. Started on March 1, 2020, and concluded on May 7, 2020, the SPWLA PDDA SIG hosted a contest aiming to predict the DTC and DTS logs from seven “easy-to-acquire” conventional logs using machine-learning methods (GitHub, 2020). In the contest, a total number of 20,525 data points with half-foot resolution from three wells was collected to train regression models using machine-learning techniques. Each data point had seven features, consisting of the conventional “easy-to-acquire” logs: caliper, neutron porosity, gamma ray (GR), deep resistivity, medium resistivity, photoelectric factor, and bulk density, respectively, as well as two sonic logs (DTC and DTS) as the target. The separate data set of 11,089 samples from a fourth well was then used as the blind test data set. The prediction performance of the model was evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) as the metric, shown in the equation below: RMSE=sqrt(1/2*1/m* [∑_(i=1)^m▒〖(〖DTC〗_pred^i-〖DTC〗_true^i)〗^2 + 〖(〖DTS〗_pred^i-〖DTS〗_true^i)〗^2 ] In the benchmark model, (Yu et al., 2020), we used a Random Forest regressor and conducted minimal preprocessing to the training data set; an RMSE score of 17.93 was achieved on the test data set. The top five models from the contest, on average, beat the performance of our benchmark model by 27% in the RMSE score. In the paper, we will review these five solutions, including preprocess techniques and different machine-learning models, including neural network, long short-term memory (LSTM), and ensemble trees. We found that data cleaning and clustering were critical for improving the performance in all models.

Analytical Model for High–Level Area Estimation of FPGA Design

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-44
Author(s):  
Rachna Singh ◽  
Arvind Rajawat
Keyword(s):  
Early Stage ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Performance Estimation ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Fpga Design ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
Area Estimation ◽  
High Level

FPGAs have been used as a target platform because they have increasingly interesting in system design and due to the rapid technological progress ever larger devices are commercially affordable. These trends make FPGAs an alternative in application areas where extensive data processing plays an important role. Consequently, the desire emerges for early performance estimation in order to quantify the FPGA approach. A mathematical model has been presented that estimates the maximum number of LUTs consumed by the hardware synthesized for different FPGAs using LLVM.. The motivation behind this research work is to design an area modeling approach for FPGA based implementation at an early stage of design. The equation based area estimation model permits immediate and accurate estimation of resources. Two important criteria used to judge the quality of the results were estimation accuracy and runtime. Experimental results show that estimation error is in the range of 1.33% to 7.26% for Spartan 3E, 1.6% to 5.63% for Virtex-2pro and 2.3% to 6.02% for Virtex-5.

Hierarchical Estimator of Dual Clutch Torques for a Power-Split Hybrid Electric Vehicle

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianwu Zhang ◽  
Defeng Xu
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Electric Vehicle ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Transient State ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Unknown Input ◽  
Unknown Input Observer ◽  
Reduced Order ◽  
Power Split ◽  
Reduced Order Observer

Abstract For fast drive mode transitions by shifting clutches equipped in the dedicated compound power-split hybrid transmission, correct estimations of pressure and torque of the clutches are crucial for control strategies. A hierarchical estimator is proposed herein for individual estimation of the clutch torques, consisting of not only the reference layer containing the unknown input observer of vehicle resistance and the reduced-order observer of drive shaft torque, but also the estimation layer combining the unknown input observer with the reduced-order observer. The estimator is implemented to strike a balance between estimation accuracy in the steady state and real time response in the transient state. For validation of the estimator, simulations and real car tests are carried out in specific drive conditions. By numerical results, it’s demonstrated that excellent predictive abilities are found including reasonably small estimation error and adaptive capability and, as a result, shift to shift induced driveline oscillations and vehicle jerks are reduced significantly.

Practical Site-Specific Earthquake Early Warning Application

2009 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katsuhisa Kanda ◽  
◽  
Tadashi Nasu ◽  
Masamitsu Miyamura
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Seismic Intensity ◽  
Earthquake Early Warning ◽  
P Wave ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Intensity Estimation ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Wide Range

Real-time hazard mitigation we have developed using earthquake early warning (EEW) (1) enhances seismic intensity estimation accuracy and (2) extends the interval between when an EEW is issued and when strong tremors arrive. We accomplished the first point (enhancing seismic intensity estimation) by reducing estimation error to less than that commonly used based on an attenuation relationship and soil amplification factor by considering source-location and wave propagation path differences based on site-specific empiricism. We accomplished the second point (shortening the time between warnings and when tremors arrive) using a high-speed, reliable communication network for receiving EEW information from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and quickly transmitting warning signals to users. In areas close to quake epicenters, however, warnings may not arrive before the arrival of strong ground motions. The on-site warning system we developed uses P-wave pickup sensors that detect P-wave arrival at a site and predict seismic intensity of subsequent S-waves. We confirmed the on-site warning prototype’s feasibility based on numerical simulation and observation. We also developed an integration server for combining on-site warnings with JMA information to be applied to earthquakes over a wide range of distances. We installed a practical prototype at a construction site near the 2008 Iwate-Miyagi Inland Earthquake epicenter to measure its aftershocks because JMA EEW information was too late to use against the main shock. We obtained good aftershock results, confirming the prototype’s applicability and accuracy. Integration server combination logic was developed for manufacturing sites requiring highly robust, reliable control.

scholarly journals Fractional baud-length coding

2011 ◽  
Vol 29 (6) ◽  
pp. 1189-1196
Author(s):  
J. Vierinen
Keyword(s):  
Estimation Error ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Estimation Errors ◽  
Range Resolution ◽  
Error Covariance ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Amplitude Estimation ◽  
Radar Measurements ◽  
Low Altitude

Abstract. We present a novel approach for modulating radar transmissions in order to improve target range and Doppler estimation accuracy. This is achieved by using non-uniform baud lengths. With this method it is possible to increase sub-baud range-resolution of phase coded radar measurements while maintaining a narrow transmission bandwidth. We first derive target backscatter amplitude estimation error covariance matrix for arbitrary targets when estimating backscatter in amplitude domain. We define target optimality and discuss different search strategies that can be used to find well performing transmission envelopes. We give several simulated examples of the method showing that fractional baud-length coding results in smaller estimation errors than conventional uniform baud length transmission codes when estimating the target backscatter amplitude at sub-baud range resolution. We also demonstrate the method in practice by analyzing the range resolved power of a low-altitude meteor trail echo that was measured using a fractional baud-length experiment with the EISCAT UHF system.

scholarly journals Robust State Estimation of Induction Motor using Desensitized Rank Kalman Filter

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tai-shan Lou ◽  
Dong-xuan Han ◽  
Xiao-liang Yang ◽  
Su-xia Jiang
Keyword(s):  
State Estimation ◽  
Induction Motor ◽  
Kalman Filtering ◽  
Sampling Methods ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Sensitivity Function ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Uncertain Parameters ◽  
Excellent Performance ◽  
Deterministic Sampling

To improve the state estimation accuracy of nonlinear induction motor with uncertain parameters, a robust desensitized rank Kalman filtering (DRKF) is proposed to reduce state estimation error sensitivities to uncertain parameters. A new sensitivity function is defined, and a novel desensitized cost function for the deterministic sampling methods is designed to obtain an optimal gain matrix. The sensitivity propagation is summarized for deterministic sampling methods. Based on the rank sample rule, the sensitivity propagation method is given, and the DRKF algorithm is derived. Two dynamic behaviors of the induction motor with two uncertain stator and rotor resistances are simulated to demonstrate that the proposed DRKF has an excellent performance.

scholarly journals Evaluation for hypocenter estimation error in the southwestern Kuril trench using Japan and Russia joint seismic data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masayoshi Ichiyanagi ◽  
Mikhaylov Valentin ◽  
Dmitry Kostylev ◽  
Yuri Levin ◽  
Hiroaki Takahashi
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Seismic Data ◽  
Estimation Error ◽  
Tsunami Warning ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Border Zone ◽  
Japan Meteorological Agency ◽  
Estimation Accuracy ◽  
Waveform Data ◽  
Kuril Trench

Abstract The southwestern Kuril trench is seismically active due to the subduction of the Pacific plate. Great earthquakes in this zone have frequently induced fatal disasters. Seismic monitoring and hypocenter catalogues provide fundamental information on earthquake occurrence and disaster mitigation. Real-time hypocenter and magnitude estimates are extremely crucial data for tsunami warning systems. However, this region is located in the international border zone between Japan and Russia. The Japan Meteorological Agency and Russian Academy of Sciences have routinely determined hypocenters and issued earthquake information independently. Waveform data have not yet been exchanged internationally in real time. Here, we evaluated how a hypothetical Japan-Russia joint seismic network could potentially improve the hypocenter estimation accuracy. Experiments using numerical and observed data indicated that the joint network extended the distance over which hypocenters can be accurately determined over 100 km eastward compared to the Japan network only. This fact suggests that joint seismic data have the potential to improve the hypocenter accuracy in this region, which would provide improved performance in gathering disaster information at the moment of a tsunami warning.

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