Emerging Infections
This chapter examines emerging infections. Emerging human viruses may cause anything from a single infection, to a small outbreak, and on to an epidemic or pandemic. The main factors that determine whether an outbreak progresses to an epidemic and on to a pandemic are the virus’s ability to infect and spread between humans, the availability of non-immune hosts within the virus’s range, and the effectiveness of any precautionary measures taken to inhibit virus spread. This is measured by the R number, or case reproduction number. The chapter then looks at groups of emerging viruses with very differing R values (not forgetting that viruses may move up or down the scale as circumstances change). These include viruses that spread no further than a single individual, such as rabies and hantaviruses; viruses that cause sporadic epidemics after introduction to a human index case from their primary host, such as Ebola, Lassa fever, and the coronaviruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS-CoV); and viruses that can subsequently circulate continuously among humans causing epidemics, such as yellow fever, Zika, and dengue viruses.