scholarly journals An Empirical Inference of the Severity of Resurgence of COVID-19 in Europe

Author(s):  
Hemanta K. Baruah

AbstractIn Europe the Corona Virus spread had started to retard months ago, but after some time it has started to accelerate again. In this article, we are going to analyze the current COVID-19 spread patterns in Italy, the UK, Germany, Russia, Spain and France. We have found that the current spread has perhaps been underestimated as just the second wave. As per our analysis, as on 7 October the resurgence is much more vigorous than the first wave of spread of the disease. It is going to be most serious in Russia, followed by Italy, Germany and the UK, while in Spain and France the patterns are yet to take inferable shapes.

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Clarissa Giebel ◽  
Kerry Hanna ◽  
Manoj Rajagopal ◽  
Aravind Komuravelli ◽  
Jacqueline Cannon ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Sudden public health restrictions can be difficult to comprehend for people with cognitive deficits. However, these are even more important for them to adhere to due to their increased levels of vulnerability, particularly to COVID-19. With a lack of previous evidence, we explored the understanding and changes in adherence to COVID-19 public health restrictions over time in people living with dementia (PLWD). Methods Unpaid carers and PLWD were interviewed over the phone in April 2020, shortly after the nationwide UK lockdown, with a proportion followed up from 24th June to 10th July. Participants were recruited via social care and third sector organisations across the UK, and via social media. Findings A total of 70 interviews (50 baseline, 20 follow-up) were completed with unpaid carers and PLWD. Five themes emerged: Confusion and limited comprehension; Frustration and burden; Putting oneself in danger; Adherence to restrictions in wider society; (Un) changed perceptions. Most carers reported limited to no understanding of the public health measures in PLWD, causing distress and frustration for both the carer and the PLWD. Due to the lack of understanding, some PLWD put themselves in dangerous situations without adhering to the restrictions. PLWD with cognitive capacity who participated understood the measures and adhered to these. Discussion In light of the new second wave of the pandemic, public health measures need to be simpler for PLWD to avoid unwilful non-adherence. Society also needs to be more adaptive to the needs of people with cognitive disabilities more widely, as blanket rules cause distress to the lives of those affected by dementia.


Author(s):  
Kathy McKay ◽  
Sarah Wayland ◽  
David Ferguson ◽  
Jane Petty ◽  
Eilis Kennedy

In the UK, tweets around COVID-19 and health care have primarily focused on the NHS. Recent research has identified that the psychological well-being of NHS staff has been adversely impacted as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to investigate narratives relating to the NHS and COVID-19 during the first lockdown (26 March–4 July 2020). A total of 123,880 tweets were collated and downloaded bound to the time period of the first lockdown in order to analyse the real-time discourse around COVID-19 and the NHS. Content analysis was undertaken and tweets were coded to positive and negative sentiments. Five main themes were identified: (1) the dichotomies of ‘clap for carers’; (2) problems with PPE and testing; (3) peaks of anger; (4) issues around hero worship; and (5) hints of a normality. Further research exploring and documenting social media narratives around COVID-19 and the NHS, in this and subsequent lockdowns, should help in tailoring suitable support for staff in the future and acknowledging the profound impact that the pandemic has had.


2006 ◽  
Vol 88 (9) ◽  
pp. 310-312 ◽  
Author(s):  
A Drake-Lee ◽  
D Skinner ◽  
A Reid

The structure of postgraduate hospital training in the UK has changed in the last 20 years: the Calman report brought training in line with European law and the SpR post was created out of the registrar and senior registrar posts. Implementation of the new training was staggered across specialties. ENT was included in the second wave of implementation in October 1995. At the same time, consultant expansion was envisaged.


1995 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Munday
Keyword(s):  
The Uk ◽  

Outline This paper examines the Japanese “second wave” sector in the local economy. Following an examination of the development of the second wave Japanese-owned supplier sector in the UK, the paper assesses the role of this sector in the local economy, and questions the policy rationale of attracting this particular type of inward investment.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Daly ◽  
Eric Robinson

BackgroundIn late 2020 a second wave of COVID-19 infections occurred in many countries and resulted in a national lockdown in the UK including stay at home orders and school closures. This study aimed to compare the prevalence of psychological distress before and during the second COVID-19 wave in the UK. MethodsThis study drew on data from 10,657 participants from the nationally representative probability-based UK Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS). The 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) assessment measure was used to detect the proportion of UK adults experiencing clinically significant psychological distress. Changes in distress levels associated with the second pandemic wave were examined between September 2020 and January 2021 using logistic regression and linear fixed-effects regression models. ResultsLongitudinal analyses showed that the prevalence of clinically significant distress rose by 5.8% (95% CI:4.4-7.2) from 21.3% in September 2020 to 27.1% in January 2021, compared with a 2019 pre-pandemic estimate of 21% in this cohort. Fixed effects analyses confirmed that the second COVID-19 wave was associated with a significant within-person increase in distress (d =0.15, p<.001). Increases were particularly pronounced among those with school-age children in the home. LimitationsA non-specific measure of mental health symptoms was utilized and it was not possible to separate the potential impact of the pandemic from other changes occurring in tandem within the study period. ConclusionClinically significant distress rose during the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and reached levels similar to those observed in the immediate aftermath of the first pandemic wave.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Divyesh Kumar

World over life was going at its normal pace when an outbreak occurred in Hubei province of China in the later part of the year 2019. This outbreak was soon found to be caused by a virus named coronavirus (COVID-19). Rapidly the virus spread globally leading to a pandemic. The mortality rate was increasing day by day and helplessly everyone was wondering what actually could be done to prevent the spread. Lessons from the past epidemic made it possible to think that maintaining social distancing and adequate hygiene might help to combat the ailment. In India, majorly affected were the people from poor strata and the businessmen who were earning their daily bread by selling things of daily need. The health sector too witnessed an alarming ratio of patients suffering from COVID-19. The second wave, which soon followd the first wave, caused much more havoc. Overall, the COVID-19 pandemic, exposed and challanged the health security system of every country. As the danger of pandemic still prevails, steps to curtail the spread of disease and future management strategies should be formulated from the lessons learnt through the COVID-19 phase.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-16
Author(s):  
Rahmawati Aulia ◽  
Ririn Atika Sazlin ◽  
Liana Ismayani ◽  
Maman Sukiman ◽  
Habib Ratu Perwira Negara ◽  
...  

The purpose of this study is to analyze the development of pandemics in all regions of Indonesia. the method used is the Newthon Rapshon interpolation method, to determine the percentage of the development of the corona virus spread in Indonesia and the method using a qualitative method by analyzing and describing data that has been simulated. The results obtained are predictions of covid-19 cases that occur in May, June, July until August, ie in those months there will be an increase in all cases that occur about this pandemic namely positive patients, recovered and died will continue to increase with a positive final conclusion> cured = died and obtained pn (x) = 2 for patients cured, pn(x) = 0 for cured and dead patients, in this study found pn(x) = 0 because the vaccine for this pandemic has not been found so the possibility of recovery and death has not been obtained its MAPE value, but an increase in cases of recovery is predicted to continue to occur as well as cases of death.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James A Ackland ◽  
Graeme J Ackland ◽  
David J Wallace

Objective: To track the statistical case fatality rate (CFR) in the second wave of the UK coronavirus outbreak, and to understand its variations over time. Design: Publicly available UK government data and clinical evidence on the time between first positive PCR test and death are used to determine the relationships between reported cases and deaths, according to age groups and across regions in England. Main Outcome Measures: Estimates of case fatality rates and their variations over time. Results: Throughout October and November 2020, deaths in England can be broadly understood in terms of CFRs which are approximately constant over time. The same CFRs prove a poor predictor of deaths when applied back to September, when prevalence of the virus was comparatively low, suggesting that the potential effect of false positive tests needs to be taken into account. Similarly, increasing CFRs are needed to match cases to deaths when projecting the model forwards into December. The growth of the S gene dropout VOC in December occurs too late to explain this increase in CFR alone, but at 33% increased mortality, it can explain the peak in deaths in January. On our analysis, if there were other factors responsible for the higher CFRs in December and January, 33% would be an upper bound for the higher mortality of the VOC. From the second half of January, the CFRs for older age groups show a marked decline. Since the fraction of the VOC has not decreased, this decline is likely to be the result of the rollout of vaccination. However, due to the rapidly decreasing nature of the raw cases data (likely due to a combination of vaccination and lockdown), any imprecisions in the time-to-death distribution are greatly exacerbated in this time period, rendering estimates of vaccination effect imprecise. Conclusions: The relationship between cases and deaths, even when controlling for age, is not static through the second wave of coronavirus in England. An apparently anomalous low case-fatality ratio in September can be accounted for by a modest 0.4% false-positive fraction. The large jump in CFR in December can be understood in terms of a more deadly new variant B1.1.7, while a decline in January correlates with vaccine roll-out, suggesting that vaccine reduce the severity of infection, as well as the risk.


Author(s):  
Hakim Ghani ◽  
Alessio Navarra ◽  
Shamira Ghouse ◽  
Nafisa Hussain ◽  
Nabiah Malik ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
The Uk ◽  

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (10) ◽  
pp. 621-627
Author(s):  
Ahmed S. Elhalawany ◽  
James Beastall ◽  
Gerard Cousins

Aims COVID-19 remains the major focus of healthcare provision. Managing orthopaedic emergencies effectively, while at the same time protecting patients and staff, remains a challenge. We explore how the UK lockdown affected the rate, distribution, and type of orthopaedic emergency department (ED) presentations, using the same period in 2019 as reference. This article discusses considerations for the ED and trauma wards to help to maintain the safety of patients and healthcare providers with an emphasis on more remote geography. Methods The study was conducted from 23 March 2020 to 5 May 2020 during the full lockdown period (2020 group) and compared to the same time frame in 2019 (2019 group). Included are all patients who attended the ED at Raigmore Hospital during this period from both the local area and tertiary referral from throughout the UK Highlands. Data was collected and analyzed through the ED Information System (EDIS) as well as ward and theatre records. Results A total of 1,978 patients presented to the ED during the lockdown period, compared to 4,777 patients in the same timeframe in 2019; a reduction of 58.6%. Orthopaedic presentations in 2020 and 2019 were 736 (37.2%) and 1,729 (36.2%) respectively, representing a 57.4% reduction. During the lockdown, 43.6% of operations were major procedures (n = 48) and 56.4% were minor procedures (n = 62), representing a significant proportional shift. Conclusion During the COVID- 19 lockdown period there was a significant reduction in ED attendances and orthopaedic presentations compared to 2019. We also observed that there was a proportional increase in fractures in elderly patients and in minor injuries requiring surgery. These represented the majority of the orthopaedic workload during the lockdown period of 2020. Given this shift towards smaller surgical procedures, we suggest that access to a minor operating theatre in or close to ED would be desirable in the event of a second wave or future crisis.


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