scholarly journals Future prevalence of type 2 diabetes – a comparative analysis of chronic disease projection methods

Author(s):  
Dina Voeltz ◽  
Thaddäus Tönnies ◽  
Ralph Brinks ◽  
Annika Hoyer

Background: Accurate projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases are necessary for effective resource allocation and health care planning in response to changes in disease burden. Aim: To introduce and compare different projection methods to estimate the number of people with diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany in 2040. Methods: We compare three methods to project the number of males with T2D in Germany in 2040. Method 1) simply combines the sex- and age-specific prevalence of T2D in 2010 with future population distributions projected by the German Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Methods 2) and 3) additionally account for the incidence of T2D and mortality rates using partial differential equations (PDEs). Method 2) models the prevalence of T2D employing a scalar PDE which incorporates incidence and mortality rates. Subsequently, the estimated prevalence is applied to the population projection of the FSO. Method 3) uses a two-dimensional system of PDEs and estimates future case numbers directly while future mortality of people with and without T2D is modelled independently from the projection of the FSO. Results: Method 1) projects 3.6 million male people with diagnosed T2D in Germany in 2040. Compared to 2.8 million males in 2010, this equals an increase by 29%. Methods 2) and 3) project 5.9 million (+104% compared to 2010) and 6.0 million (+116%) male T2D patients, respectively. Conclusions: The results of the three methods differ substantially. It appears that ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality may result in misleading projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases. Hence, it is essential to include these rates as is done by method 2) and 3).

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e001071 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bendix Carstensen ◽  
Pernille Falberg Rønn ◽  
Marit Eika Jørgensen

IntroductionThe objective of this study was to give an overview of prevalence, incidence and mortality of type 1 (T1D) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Denmark, and their temporal trends.Research design and methodsWe constructed a diabetes register from existing population-based healthcare registers, including a classification of patients as T1D or T2D, with coverage from 1996 to 2016. Using complete population records for Denmark, we derived prevalence, incidence, mortality and standardized mortality ratio (SMR).ResultsThe overall prevalence of diabetes at 2016 was 0.5% for T1D and 4.4% for T2D, with annual increases since 1996 of 0.5% for T1D and 5.5% for T2D. Incidence rates of T1D decreased by 3.5% per year, with increase for persons under 25 years of age and a decrease for older persons. T2D incidence increased 2.5% per year until 2011, decreased until 2014 and increased after that, similar in all ages. The annual decrease in mortality was 0.3% for T1D and 2.9% for T2D. The mortality rate ratio between T1D and T2D was 1.9 for men and 1.6 for women. SMR decreased annually 2% for T1D and 0.5% for T2D.ConclusionsIncidence and prevalence of diabetes is increasing, but mortality among patients with diabetes in Denmark is decreasing faster than the mortality among persons without diabetes. T1D carries a 70% higher mortality than T2D.


2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianchao Quan ◽  
Yuet Hin Yuen ◽  
Carmen Ng

Abstract Background The increasing global trend of diabetes and prediabetes necessitates timely estimation of disease burden. Methods We obtained patient data on demographics, laboratory readings; attendances (inpatient, outpatient and emergency care) and prescribed medications from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. Age-standardized incidence, prevalence and mortality rates were calculated from 2007 to 2017. Rates were adjusted for age and gender using the Hong Kong 2017 mid-year population as the standard population. Abridged life tables were constructed using the Chiang II method to estimate life expectancy. We applied bootstrapping with resampling to derive confidence intervals. Results We identified 604,319 people with type 2 diabetes and 944,522 with prediabetes. Age-standardized incidence for diabetes exhibited an overall decreasing trend from 2007 to 2017, falling from 8.34 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 8.25 to 8.44) to 4.72 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 4.65 to 4.78). The age-standardized mortality rate for diabetes and prediabetes decreased over the same period. Similar trends were observed for both genders, with females having lower prevalence, incidence and mortality rates compared to males for both diabetes and prediabetes. Life expectancy slightly increased from 2007 to 2017 for people with diabetes. Conclusions Decreases in incidence rates and mortality rates for diabetes and prediabetes were observed from 2207 to 2017. Life expectancy for people with type 2 diabetes improved from 2007 to 2017, similar to observed trends in the general population. Key messages Despite improvements in mortality rates for people with diabetes, the gap in life expectancy with the general population has not narrowed.


Diabetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 67 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 1355-P ◽  
Author(s):  
EMER M. BRADY ◽  
LAURA J. GRAY ◽  
SUSANN WEIHRAUCH-BLÜHER ◽  
CHARLOTTE EDWARDSON ◽  
DEIRDRE HARRINGTON ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margarita A. Sazonova ◽  
Anastasia I. Ryzhkova ◽  
Vasily V. Sinyov ◽  
Marina D. Sazonova ◽  
Tatiana V. Kirichenko ◽  
...  

Background: The present review article considers some chronic diseases of vascular and metabolic genesis, the causes of which may be mitochondrial dysfunction. Very often, in the long course of the disease, complications may occur, leading to myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke and as a result, death.In particular, a large percentage of human deaths nowadays belongs to cardiovascular diseases such as coronary heart disease (CHD), arterial hypertension, cardiomyopathies and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Objective: The aim of the present review was the analysis of literature sources, devoted to an investigation of a link of mitochondrial DNA mutations with chronic diseases of vascular and metabolic genesis, Results: The analysis of literature indicates the association of the mitochondrial genome mutations with coronary heart disease, type 2 diabetes mellitus, hypertension and various types of cardiomyopathies. Conclusion: The detected mutations can be used to analyze the predisposition to chronic diseases of vascular and metabolic genesis. They can also be used to create molecular-cell models necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of drugs developed for treatment of these pathologies. MtDNA mutations associated withthe absence of diseases of vascular and metabolic genesis could be potential candidates for gene therapy of diseases of vascular and metabolic genesis.


2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 1680
Author(s):  
Mariusz Dąbrowski

In the last decade, cancer became the leading cause of death in the population under 65 in the European Union. Diabetes is also considered as a factor increasing risk of cancer incidence and mortality. Type 2 diabetes is frequently associated with being overweight and obese, which also plays a role in malignancy. Among biological mechanisms linking diabetes and obesity with cancer hyperglycemia, hyperinsulinemia, insulin resistance, increased levels of growth factors, steroid and peptide hormones, oxidative stress and increased activity of pro-inflammatory cytokines are listed. Antidiabetic medications can modulate cancer risk through directly impacting metabolism of cancer cells as well as indirectly through impact on risk factors of malignancy. Some of them are considered beneficial (metformin and thiazolidinedions—with the exception of bladder cancer); on the other hand, excess of exogenous insulin may be potentially harmful, while other medications seem to have neutral impact on cancer risk. Inhibitors of the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) are increasingly used in the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, their association with cancer risk is unclear. The aim of this review was to analyze the anticancer potential of this class of drugs, as well as risks of site-specific malignancies associated with their use.


2012 ◽  
Vol 102 (9) ◽  
pp. 1791-1797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda I. Phipps ◽  
John Scoggins ◽  
Mary Anne Rossing ◽  
Christopher I. Li ◽  
Polly A. Newcomb

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roel Tans ◽  
Lars Verschuren ◽  
Hans J. C. T. Wessels ◽  
Stephan J. L. Bakker ◽  
Cees J. Tack ◽  
...  

2008 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 183-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua J. Neumiller ◽  
Peggy Soule Odegard ◽  
John R. White ◽  
Stephen M. Setter ◽  
R. Keith Campbell

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