Climate change impacts on the abiotic degradation of acyl-homoserine lactones in the fluctuating conditions of marine biofilms

Homoserine Lactones ◽

Acyl Homoserine Lactones ◽

Marine Biofilms ◽

Marine biofilms are functional communities that shape habitats by providing a range of structural and functional services integral to coastal ecosystems. Impacts of climate change on biological aspects of such communities are increasingly studied, but impacts on the chemicals that mediate key interactions of biofilm organisms have largely been overlooked. Acyl-homoserine lactones (AHLs), crucial bacterial signals within biofilms, are known to degrade through pH and temperature-dependent hydrolysis. However, the impact of climate change on AHLs and thus on biofilm form and function is presently unknown. This study investigates the impact of changes in pH and temperature on the hydrolysis rate, half-life time and quantitative abundance of different AHLs on daily and seasonal timescales for current conditions and future climate change scenarios. We established the mathematical relationships between pH, hydrolysis rates/half-life times and temperature, which revealed that natural daily pH-driven changes within biofilms cause the greatest fluctuations in AHL concentration (up to 9-fold). Season-dependant temperature enhanced or reduced the observed daily dynamics, leading to higher winter and lower summer concentrations and caused a shift in timing of the highest and lowest AHL concentration by up to two hours. Simulated future conditions based on climate change projections caused an overall reduction of AHL degradation and led to higher AHL concentrations persisting for longer across both the daily and seasonal cycles. This study provides valuable quantitative insights into the theoretical natural dynamics of AHL concentrations. We highlight critical knowledge gaps on the scale of abiotic daily and seasonal fluctuations affecting estuarine and coastal biofilms and on the biofilms' buffering capacity. Detailed experimental studies of daily and seasonal dynamics of AHL concentrations and assessment of the potential implications for a suite of more complex interactions are required. Substantial fluctuations like those we show in this study, particularly with regards to concentration and timing, will likely have far reaching implications for fundamental ecosystem processes and important ecosystem services such as larval settlement and coastal sediment stabilisation.

Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽

10.3390/w12010219 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

pp. 219 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽

David Pulido-Velazquez ◽

Rosa María Mateos ◽

Pablo Ezquerro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Subsidence ◽

Ground Subsidence ◽

Lower Percentage ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Fine Grained ◽

Fine Grained Material ◽

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Nature Communications ◽

10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 12 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Alizée Chemison ◽

Gilles Ramstein ◽

Adrian M. Tompkins ◽

Dimitri Defrance ◽

Guigone Camus ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Malaria Transmission ◽

Ice Sheet ◽

Transmission Risk ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Risk ◽

System A ◽

Climate Simulations ◽

AbstractStudies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

Selection of models to describe the temperature-dependent development of Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Lepidoptera: Crambidae) and its application to predict the species voltinism under future climate conditions

Bulletin of Entomological Research ◽

10.1017/s0007485321000195 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-9

Author(s):

Hevellyn Talissa dos Santos ◽

Cesar Augusto Marchioro

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Linear Model ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Temperature Dependent ◽

Dependent Development ◽

Degree Day ◽

Non Linear ◽

Abstract The small tomato borer, Neoleucinodes elegantalis (Guenée, 1854) is a multivoltine pest of tomato and other cultivated solanaceous plants. The knowledge on how N. elegantalis respond to temperature may help in the development of pest management strategies, and in the understanding of the effects of climate change on its voltinism. In this context, this study aimed to select models to describe the temperature-dependent development rate of N. elegantalis and apply the best models to evaluate the impacts of climate change on pest voltinism. Voltinism was estimated with the best fit non-linear model and the degree-day approach using future climate change scenarios representing intermediary and high greenhouse gas emission rates. Two out of the six models assessed showed a good fit to the observed data and accurately estimated the thermal thresholds of N. elegantalis. The degree-day and the non-linear model estimated more generations in the warmer regions and fewer generations in the colder areas, but differences of up to 41% between models were recorded mainly in the warmer regions. In general, both models predicted an increase in the voltinism of N. elegantalis in most of the study area, and this increase was more pronounced in the scenarios with high emission of greenhouse gases. The mathematical model (74.8%) and the location (9.8%) were the factors that mostly contributed to the observed variation in pest voltinism. Our findings highlight the impact of climate change on the voltinism of N. elegantalis and indicate that an increase in its population growth is expected in most regions of the study area.

Irrigation water requirements for seed corn and coffee under potential climate change scenarios

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2015.025 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 39-51 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Ali Fares ◽

Ripendra Awal ◽

Samira Fares ◽

Alton B. Johnson ◽

Hector Valenzuela

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Irrigation Water ◽

Co2 Emission ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Deep Percolation ◽

Canopy Interception ◽

Water Requirements ◽

Seed Corn ◽

The impact of potential future climate change scenarios on the irrigation water requirements (IRRs) of two major agricultural crops (coffee and seed corn) in Hawai'i was studied using the Irrigation Management System (IManSys) model. In addition to IRRs calculations, IManSys calculates runoff, deep percolation, canopy interception, and effective rainfall based on plant growth parameters, site specific soil hydrological properties, irrigation system efficiency, and long-term daily weather data. Irrigation water requirements of two crops were simulated using historical climate data and different levels of atmospheric CO2 (330, 550, 710 and 970 ppm), temperature (+1.1 and +6.4 °C) and precipitation (±5, ±10 and ±20%) chosen based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 projections under reference, B1, A1B1 and A1F1 emission scenarios. IRRs decreased as CO2 emission increased. The average percentage decrease in IRRs for seed corn is higher than that of coffee. However, runoff, rain canopy interception, and deep percolation below the root zone increased as precipitation increased. Canopy interception and drainage increased with increased CO2 emission. Evapotranspiration responded positively to air temperature rise, and as a result, IRRs increased as well. Further studies using crop models will predict crop yield responses to these different irrigation scenarios.

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

La Houille Blanche ◽

10.1051/lhb/2018010 ◽

2018 ◽

pp. 70-79 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Le Viet Thang ◽

Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽

Ho Long Phi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Quality ◽

River Basin ◽

Sediment Load ◽

Swat Model ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Nutrient Load ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

Future Climate Change Will Have a Positive Effect on Populus davidiana in China

Forests ◽

10.3390/f10121120 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 10 (12) ◽

pp. 1120 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jie Li ◽

Guan Liu ◽

Qi Lu ◽

Yanru Zhang ◽

Guoqing Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Human Disturbance ◽

Vulnerability Index ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Degree Of Protection ◽

Populus Davidiana ◽

The Impact ◽

Degree Of Fragmentation

Since climate change significantly affects global biodiversity, a reasonable assessment of the vulnerability of species in response to climate change is crucial for conservation. Most existing methods estimate the impact of climate change on the vulnerability of species by projecting the change of a species’ distribution range. This single-component evaluation ignores the impact of other components on vulnerability. In this study, Populus davidiana (David’s aspen), a tree species widely used in afforestation projects, was selected as the research subject under four future climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathway (RCP)2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). Exposure components of range change as well as the degree of fragmentation, degree of human disturbance, and degree of protection were considered simultaneously. Then, a multicomponent vulnerability index was established to assess the effect of future climate change on the vulnerability of P. davidiana in China. The results show that the distribution range of P. davidiana will expand to the northwest of China under future climate change scenarios, which will lead to an increased degree of protection and a decreased degree of human disturbance, and hardly any change in the degree of fragmentation. The multicomponent vulnerability index values of P. davidiana under the four emission scenarios are all positive by 2070, ranging from 14.05 to 38.18, which fully indicates that future climate change will be conducive to the survival of P. davidiana. This study provides a reference for the development of conservation strategies for the species as well as a methodological case study for multicomponent assessment of species vulnerability to future climate change.

Emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK

Journal of Facilities Management ◽

10.1108/jfm-11-2014-0038 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 14 (1) ◽

pp. 21-35 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Abdullah Alzahrani ◽

Halim Boussabaine ◽

Ali Nasser Alzaed

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Content Type ◽

Starting Point ◽

Climate Change Risks ◽

The Uk ◽

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report results from a survey on emerging climate changes and the risks to the operation of building assets in the UK. The property sector is facing major challenges as a result of projected climate change scenarios. Predictions concerning future climate change and the subsequent impact on building operations are still subject to a high degree of uncertainty. However, it is important that building stockholders consider a range of possible future risks that may influence the operation of their assets. Design/methodology/approach – The literature review and questionnaire are used to elicit and assess the likelihood of occurrence of climate change risks impacting building operations. The survey was carried out among building stockowners and professionals in the UK. Statistical methods were used to rank and compare the findings. Findings – The majority of the respondents strongly agreed that the list of risks that were elicited from the literature will have an impact on their building assets within a 0-5 years’ time horizon. It was found that the professionals were most concerned about higher energy prices and an increase in operation costs in general; they were least concerned about an electricity blackout. Research limitations/implications – This paper is limited to the UK, and regional variations are not explored. Nevertheless, the buildings’ operation risk study provides a starting point for further investigations into the emerging risks from climate change, and their impact on the operation of building stock. Future work could investigate direct mapping between climate risks and the financial value of properties. Originality/value – Findings of this paper can help professionals and building stockowners improve their understanding of climate change risks and the impact on their assets. This paper could also help these individuals to formulate appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of Ross River virus: methodological challenges and research needs

Epidemiology and Infection ◽

10.1017/s0950268814000399 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 142 (10) ◽

pp. 2013-2023 ◽

Cited By ~ 7

Author(s):

W. YU ◽

P. DALE ◽

L. TURNER ◽

S. TONG

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Environmental Factors ◽

Socioeconomic Development ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Ross River Virus ◽

Impact Of Climate Change ◽

Development Scenarios ◽

Methodological Challenges ◽

SUMMARYRoss River virus (RRV) is the most common vector-borne disease in Australia. It is vitally important to make appropriate projections on the future spread of RRV under various climate change scenarios because such information is essential for policy-makers to identify vulnerable communities and to better manage RRV epidemics. However, there are many methodological challenges in projecting the impact of climate change on the transmission of RRV disease. This study critically examined the methodological issues and proposed possible solutions. A literature search was conducted between January and October 2012, using the electronic databases Medline, Web of Science and PubMed. Nineteen relevant papers were identified. These studies demonstrate that key challenges for projecting future climate change on RRV disease include: (1) a complex ecology (e.g. many mosquito vectors, immunity, heterogeneous in both time and space); (2) unclear interactions between social and environmental factors; and (3) uncertainty in climate change modelling and socioeconomic development scenarios. Future risk assessments of climate change will ultimately need to better understand the ecology of RRV disease and to integrate climate change scenarios with local socioeconomic and environmental factors, in order to develop effective adaptation strategies to prevent or reduce RRV transmission.

Risk from extreme precipitation and climate change on New Zealand’s residential property

10.26686/wgtn.16552782 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Jacob Pastor Paz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Regression Model ◽

Extreme Precipitation ◽

Claim Data ◽

Future Climate ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Residential Property ◽

Property Damage ◽

Three manuscripts form the basis of this dissertation exploring the effect of extreme precipitation and climate change on residential property in New Zealand. The first manuscript investigates the public insurer’s expected future liabilities, given future climate projections. Specifically, it examines the effect of extreme precipitation on direct property damage associated with rainfall-induced landslides, storms and floods. This study applies a fixed-effects panel regression model using claim data linked to extreme precipitation data over 2000-2017 and future climate change scenarios until 2100. The results show that liabilities will increase more if future greenhouse gasses emissions are higher. At the aggregate level, the percent change between past and future liabilities ranges between an increase of 7 to 8% higher in the next 20 years, and an increase between 9 to 25% increase by the end of the century, depending on the greenhouse gases emissions scenario. The second manuscript examines the risk of property damage from landslides associated with extreme precipitation. The focus is on the Nelson region as it displays the highest number of claims and pay-outs relative to its population and residential stock asset, and two thirds of the pay-outs come from a single event. The focus is on this event. This research combines past insurance claim data with geographic and sociodemographic data to estimate probability of damage, which is then combined with property replacement values and damage-ratio information to calculate the expected loses and map the spatial distribution of risk. The study integrates into the risk estimates the impact of climate change on precipitation based on an ‘attribution’ study. The analysis shows that slope and social deprivation play a significant role in the probability of damage. Furthermore, higher expected losses are associated with higher property values. The third manuscript studies the current and future risk of property damage from floods associated with extreme precipitation and climate change. The focus is on the most expensive event on record. This study applies a logistic cross-sectional regression model that exploits spatial variation of rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (with and without the effect of climate change), while controlling for other factors that might make a property more or less likely to experience damage. The expected monetary losses are calculated by factoring in the likelihood of flood damage derived from the regression model, property replacement values, and property vulnerability (based on flood-depth fragility functions). The results show that highest losses are associated with lowest annual exceedance probabilities (AEPs), still, sizeable losses are associated with higher AEPs. In this case, the effect of climate change for different emissions scenarios is too small to cause an economically meaningful increase in risk levels in the next 80 years (2100).

Evaluation of the production process of potato in a changing climate in the Eastern and Western forest-steppe

Ukrainian hydrometeorological journal ◽

10.31481/uhmj.16.2015.16 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 120-127

Author(s):

S.M. Svyderska

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climatic Conditions ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Forest Steppe ◽

Herbaceous Plant ◽

Perennial Herbaceous Plant ◽

Photosynthetic Productivity ◽

Growing Conditions ◽

An important element of climate change is to assess changes in agro-climatic growing conditions of crops and the impact of these changes on their performance. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector of Ukraine's economy to fluctuations and climate change. Given the inertial nature of agriculture and the dependence of the efficiency on the weather, now need to make timely and adequate solutions to complex problems caused by climate change. Due to the expected increase in air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere food security Ukraine will largely depend on how effectively adapting agriculture to future climate change. This includes advance assessment of the impact of the expected climate change on agro-climatic conditions for growing crops. Potatoes - perennial, herbaceous, plant, but in nature is treated as an annual plant, so that the life cycle, beginning with germination and ending with the formation of bubbles and the formation of mature tubers, is one growing season. Potato is one of the most important crops grown and diversified use in almost all parts of our country. But the main focus areas of potatoes in Polesie and Forest-steppe. We consider the relative performance of the photosynthetic productivity of potato and agro-climatic conditions for growing potatoes for the period 1986 to 2005, and expected their changes calculated by the climate change scenarios A1B and A2 for the period 2011 to 2050 in Eastern and Western Forest-Steppe. We consider the agrometeorological and agro-climatic conditions in which there may be a maximum performance of potato.