The determinants of aggregate and dis-aggregated import demand in Ghana

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 356-367
Author(s):  
Nomfundo Portia Vacu ◽  
Nicholas Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
Liberalisation Policy

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the determinants of aggregate and dis-aggregated import demand for Ghana for the period from 1985 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing approach. Findings The long-run finding show that aggregate import demand (AIMD) is positively determined by exports of goods and services and consumer spending, but negatively determined by foreign exchange reserves. It is found that consumer spending is the key positive determinant of the import demand of consumer goods, while foreign exchange reserves, trade liberalisation policy and relative import price are negative determinants. It is found that import demand of intermediate goods is positively determined by consumer spending, government spending and investment spending. The long-run findings further confirm that import demand of capital goods is negatively determined by relative import price. In the short run, the findings suggest that AIMD is positively affected by exports of goods and services, investment spending and consumer spending, but negatively affected by foreign exchange reserves. Import demand of consumer goods is positively influenced by consumer spending, but negatively determined by relative import price. Finally, import demand for intermediate goods is found to be positively determined by investment spending and government spending, while import demand for capital goods is positively associated with exports of goods and services and trade liberalisation policy in the previous period. Originality/value A number of studies have looked at the determinants of import demand, focussing on the aggregated import demand. This study adds the component of dis-aggregated import demand, as it assist in dealing with the issues of bias.

scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF THE DEMAND FOR IMPORT OF BANGLADESH: A COINTEGRATION AND VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION ANALYSIS

2020 ◽  
pp. 23-30
Author(s):  
Maila Lama
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper examines the determinants of import demand of Bangladesh by using the time series data for the period 1990-91 to 2015-16. The study found that both export and import of the country has increased significantly after the liberalization of its economy in early 1990s. But its import has always been higher than export resulting in widening of its trade deficit. Its export destinations are located in distant countries; USA, Germany and UK while its imports sources are neighbouring countries like China and India. Johansen’s cointegration method and vector error correction model was applied to estimate the determinants of its import demand. The results showed that there was a long-run relationship between real import, real GDP and Foreign exchange reserves. In the long-run, import was found to be more elastic to real GDP and inelastic with respect to foreign exchange reserves. The VEC model indicated that any deviation in import in the short-run would get corrected within a period of less than one year. The import was more elastic to real income in the short-run than in the long-run. The evidences showed that the volume of import would increase faster with increase in real GDP and would deteriorate the country’s trade balance unless accompanied by high export growth. Hence, there is a need to invest in establishing import substitute industries to control imports and promote exports to reduce trade deficit. KEYWORDS: Import, trade policy, real GDP, foreign exchange reserve, cointegration

An Empirical Analysis of Aggregate Import Demand Function for India

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 20170049
Author(s):  
Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra ◽  
Asit Mohanty
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Demand Function ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
The Stability

This paper examines the behaviour of Indian aggregate imports during the period 1980–81 to 2013–14. The stability of aggregate import demand function is examined using five types of cointegration tests including the ARDL bounds test. In order to estimate the long-run elasticities, we have applied three alternative fully efficient cointegrating regressions, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Johansen maximum likelihood method. Our results reveal cointegration relationship between import demand, relative prices of import, domestic activity and foreign exchange reserves. Results evince that, in the long-run, the response of import demand to relative import prices is negative and less than unity, whereas it’s response to domestic activity/income is positive and more than unity. The foreign exchange reserve has a positive effect on imports.

The long-run effects of geopolitical risk on foreign exchange markets: evidence from some ASEAN countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hon Chung Hui
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Foreign Exchange Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Markets ◽  
Exchange Rate Models ◽  
Asean Countries

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the long-run relationship between geopolitical risk and exchange rates in four ASEAN countries.Design/methodology/approachWe augment theoretical nominal exchange rate models available in the literature with the geopolitical risk index developed by Caldara and Iacoviello (2019), and then estimate these models using the ARDL approach to Cointegration.FindingsOur analysis uncovers evidence of Cointegration in the exchange rate models when the MYR-USD, IDR-USD, THB-USD and PHP-USD exchange rates are used as dependent variable. Next, geopolitical risk is a significant long-run driver for these exchange rates. Third, in all countries higher geopolitical risk leads to a depreciation of domestic currency.Research limitations/implicationsThere are implications for entrepreneurs, central banks, portfolio managers and arbitrageurs who actively trade in financial markets. Financial market players can benefit from a better understanding of how geopolitical events affect the portfolio of financial assets across various countries, while entrepreneurs can work out hedging strategies.Originality/valueThis is a contribution to the study of interlinkages between political risk and foreign exchange markets. It is the first study to adopt the geopolitical risk index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2019) to the study the foreign exchange markets of ASEAN countries.

Policy shocks, current account and the macroeconomy in a developing country

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (3) ◽  
pp. 710-726
Author(s):  
Moumita Basu ◽  
Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Developing Country ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Effective Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
The Current Account

Purpose This is a theoretical paper in the field of international macroeconomics. The purpose of this paper is to focus on a dynamic interaction between current account imbalance and unemployment in response to some policy-induced shocks for a small open economy under a flexible exchange rate. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a two-sector framework: one sector is traded and another is the non-traded sector that is subject to an effective demand constraint. The current account imbalance arises due to the discrepancy between production of traded goods, household consumption of traded goods and government purchases of importables. The authors keep the asset structure simple by considering only domestic currency and foreign bonds that are imperfect substitutes. The paper considers a standard methodology of dynamic adjustment process involving change in foreign exchange reserves and exchange rate under perfect foresight. The saddle path properties of the equilibrium are also examined. Findings The results of comparative static exercises depend on a set of structural features of a developing country, which include asset substitutability, wage price rigidity and sectoral asymmetries. The paper shows that expansionary monetary policy, balanced budget fiscal expansion and financial liberalization have an ambiguous effect on the current account balance, foreign exchange reserves, non-traded sector and the level of employment. Originality/value The existence of Keynesian unemployment with fixed prices is the key ingredient of this paper. The paper introduces the problem of effective demand to analyze the dynamics of current account balance and exchange rate, which, in turn, determine the sectoral composition of output and level of employment.

Effects of zero rating value added tax on government revenue in Namibia

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 343-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ojijo Odhiambo ◽  
John E. Odada
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
National Income ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Disposable Income ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Marginal Propensity To Consume ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Marginal Propensity

Purpose – The Government of Namibia has traditionally used fiscal (especially tax) policy as an instrument for annual budget formulation. Marginal tax rates for profits and various income brackets have been changed back and forth in response to changes in economic conditions. However, to date, no attempt has been made to evaluate the effectiveness of these reforms in achieving the broad national economic goals, in general, and the potential effects on government revenue in the short, medium and long-run periods, in particular. The purpose of this paper is to fill this information gap by analysing the implication of the 2008 zero-rating of value added tax (VAT) on basic commodities for aggregate demand and government revenue. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses an analytical framework based on economic theory which posits that in an open economy, which trades with the rest of the world, aggregate demand for goods and services is made up of consumption demand, investment demand, government demand and net exports and that real sector equilibrium is attained when aggregate supply of goods and services is equal to aggregate demand for goods and services. Findings – Using the Namibia Household Income and Expenditure Survey results, the annual loss in government revenue attributable to this policy is, ceteris paribus, estimated to be N$310.4 million. With a marginal propensity to consume out of disposable income of 0.89, total expenditure by households on goods and services is likely to increase by N$276.3 million per annum. In the medium-to-long-run, national income will have increased by N$303.9 million per annum. Taxes which are responsive to changes in the level of national income will have increased by N$85.7 million, compensating for just over one quarter of the estimated loss in government revenue of N$310.4 million. Research limitations/implications – The study has used a partial equilibrium model as opposed to computable general equilibrium model, which provides a consistent framework that meets most of the sectoral and institutional data requirements for the simple reason that a social accounting matrix which can be used readily to connect data from different sources, such as national accounts and household surveys and would thus have been ideal model for analysing the impacts of the VAT tax reform has not been developed for Namibia. Practical implications – The paper provides a number of practical policy options available for government including, but not limited to, increasing direct taxes, VAT rate on specific (luxury) goods and services and statutory VAT rate on all other commodities not zero-rated, other taxes such as taxes; and borrowing from external sources. Social implications – It is established that zero-rating VAT on all the basic commodities in 2008 reduces the VAT paid by all Namibian households by N$310.4 million per year, which represents the annual increase in the disposable income of all households. And with a marginal propensity to consume out of disposable income of 0.89, total expenditure by households on goods and services will increase by N$276.3 million per year. Originality/value – This paper presents the first attempt at evaluating the effectiveness of tax (VAT) policy reforms in Namibia in achieving the broad national economic goals, in general, and the potential effects on government revenue in the short, medium and long-run periods, in particular.

Angolan government will push for oil sector boost

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Deep Water ◽  
Oil Fields ◽  
New Wave ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Institutional Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Oil Sector

Significance This is the first major test of recent legislative and institutional reforms as President Joao Lourenco’s government looks to bring in new players and revitalise the sector. New exploration is badly needed to restore dwindling production, alongside measures to monetise gas reserves and smaller oil fields, in addition to the large deep-water fields that have traditionally attracted oil majors. Impacts New oil discoveries are the best short-to-medium term hope for shoring up Angola’s foreign exchange reserves. If successful, the licensing round could bring a new wave of offshore exploration and deliver a boost to ports and services industries. The ANPG hopes to put new discoveries on production from 2026 to replace output as existing fields decline. Activity in southern Angola will also affect sentiment in neighbouring Namibia, where oil majors have recently taken new acreage.

Impact analysis of US quantitative easing policy on emerging markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 185-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joung-Yol Lin ◽  
Munkh-Ulzii John Batmunkh ◽  
Massoud Moslehpour ◽  
Chuang-Yuang Lin ◽  
Ka-Man Lei
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
Watson Statistic

Purpose Since the 2008 financial crisis, the USA has three times implemented quantitative easing (QE) policy. The results of the policy, however, were far below all expectations. Furthermore, it flooded emerging markets (EMs) with low-priced dollars. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the overall and individual impacts of the policy on EMs. Design/methodology/approach This study uses panel data regression model together with the fixed effects model. Also, a unit root test is conducted to check stationary properties of the data, as well as Durbin-Watson statistic to check serial correlation issues in the models. In estimating empirical models, this paper employs macroeconomic data set of stock market returns, exchange rates, lending interest rates, consumer price index, monetary aggregates and foreign exchange reserves from seven diversified emerging economies. The EMs in this study include China, Indonesia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Russia and Brazil. The time period undertaken in this study is from 2008 to 2012. In order to measure impacts of the different stages of the policy, the authors use dummy variables to represent each stage of the policy. Findings The results of the study show that the QE policy has significant impacts on foreign exchange reserves, foreign exchange markets and stock markets of the sample economies. Domestic credit markets, however, appear to be least influenced field by the policy. Finally, the results show that only the first stage of the policy exhibits strong significant impacts, however, leverage of the policy decreases over time. Research limitations/implications Further studies may use different samples, also variables that measure foreign capital inflows such as changes in financial accounts, foreign direct investment and foreign portfolio investment. Originality/value The present study has the following contributions on assessing the impacts of QE policy. First, the overall and individual impacts of the policy are analyzed. Second, in order to establish more valid results, the sample of this study is designed to include several EMs from three continents and diverse regions.

scholarly journals Analisis Hubungan Ekspor, Pembayaran Hutang Luar Negeri Dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Cadangan Devisa Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Fakhrurrazi Fakhrurrazi ◽  
Hijri Juliansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Debt Payment

This study aims to determine the relationship between exports, foreign debt payments, and the exchange rates on the foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia in 1988-2019. This study uses secondary data for 31 years and uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis method to analyze the data. The results of this study indicate that all variables have no relationship between variables, only on the foreign exchange reserves to exports. In short-term testing, the export does not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves, and the foreign debt payment and the exchange rate have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. However, in the long run, all variables do not have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves.Keywords:Exports, Foreign Debt Payment, Exchange Rates, Foreign Exchange                    Reserves, ARDL

scholarly journals Public debt and economic growth: contemporary evidence from a developing economy

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Kris Hilton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Investment Spending

Purpose Considering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent borrowing because of the impact of COVID 19, this paper aims to examine the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth over time. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a dynamic multivariate autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL)-based Granger-causality model to test the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth [gross domestic product (GDP)]. Annual time-series data that spanned 1978–2018 were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator database and the IMF fiscal Affairs Department Database and WEO. Findings The results reveal that public debt has no causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but there is unidirectional Granger causality running from public debt to GDP in the long run. Again, investment spending has a negative bi-directional causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but they have a positive bi-directional causal relationship in the long run. Conversely, no short-run causal relationship exists between government consumption expenditure and GDP but long-run Granger causality runs from government consumption expenditure to GDP. Finally, public debt has a positive impact on the inflation rate in the short run. Practical implications The findings imply that government(s) must ensure high fiscal discipline to serve as a precursor for the effective and efficient use of recent borrowing, that is, the loans should be used for highly prioritized projects (preferably investment spending) that are well evaluated and self-sustained to add positively to the GDP. Originality/value This paper provides contemporary findings to augment extant literature on public debt and economic growth by using variables and empirical models, which prior studies could not sufficiently cover in a developing country perspective and affirms that public debt contributes to GDP only in the long run.

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