Data-driven structure selection for the grey NGMC(1,N) model

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dang Luo ◽  
Decai Sun

PurposeWith the prosperity of grey extension models, the form and structure of grey forecasting models tend to be complicated. How to select the appropriate model structure according to the data characteristics has become an important topic. The purpose of this paper is to design a structure selection method for the grey multivariate model.Design/methodology/approachThe linear correction term is introduced into the grey model, then the nonhomogeneous grey multivariable model with convolution integral [NGMC(1,N)] is proposed. Then, by incorporating the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), the model parameters are compressed and estimated based on the least angle regression (LARS) algorithm.FindingsBy adjusting the values of the parameters, the NGMC(1,N) model can derive various structures of grey models, which shows the structural adaptability of the NGMC(1,N) model. Based on the geometric interpretation of the LASSO method, the structure selection of the grey model can be transformed into sparse parameter estimation, and the structure selection can be realized by LASSO estimation.Practical implicationsThis paper not only provides an effective method to identify the key factors of the agricultural drought vulnerability, but also presents a practical model to predict the agricultural drought vulnerability.Originality/valueBased on the LASSO method, a structure selection algorithm for the NGMC(1,N) model is designed, and the structure selection method is applied to the vulnerability prediction of agricultural drought in Puyang City, Henan Province.

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huifang Sun ◽  
Liping Fang ◽  
Yaoguo Dang ◽  
Wenxin Mao

PurposeA core challenge of assessing regional agricultural drought vulnerability (RADV) is to reveal what vulnerability factors, under which kinds of synergistic combinations and at what strengths, will lead to higher vulnerability: namely, the influence patterns of RADV.Design/methodology/approachA two-phased grey rough combined model is proposed to identify influence patterns of RADV from a new perspective of learning and mining historical cases. The grey entropy weight clustering with double base points is proposed to assess degrees of RADV. The simplest decision rules that reflect the complex synergistic relationships between RADV and its influencing factors are extracted using the rough set approach.FindingsThe results exemplified by China's Henan Province in the years 2008–2016 show higher degrees of RADV in the north and west regions of the province, in comparison with the south and east. In the patterns with higher RADV, the higher proportion of agricultural population appears in all decision rules as a core feature. A smaller quantity of water resources per unit of cultivated land area and a lower adaptive capacity, involving levels of irrigation technology and economic development, present a significant synergistic influence relationship that distinguishes the features of higher vulnerability from those of the lower.Originality/valueThe proposed grey rough combined model not only evaluates temporal dynamics and spatial differences of RADV but also extracts the decision rules between RADV and its influencing factors. The identified influence patterns inspire managerial implications for preventing and reducing agricultural drought through its historical evolution and formation mechanism.


2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haluk Ay ◽  
Anthony Luscher ◽  
Carolyn Sommerich

Purpose The purpose of this study is to design and develop a testing device to simulate interaction between human hand–arm dynamics, right-angle (RA) computer-controlled power torque tools and joint-tightening task-related variables. Design/methodology/approach The testing rig can simulate a variety of tools, tasks and operator conditions. The device includes custom data-acquisition electronics and graphical user interface-based software. The simulation of the human hand–arm dynamics is based on the rig’s four-bar mechanism-based design and mechanical components that provide adjustable stiffness (via pneumatic cylinder) and mass (via plates) and non-adjustable damping. The stiffness and mass values used are based on an experimentally validated hand–arm model that includes a database of model parameters. This database is with respect to gender and working posture, corresponding to experienced tool operators from a prior study. Findings The rig measures tool handle force and displacement responses simultaneously. Peak force and displacement coefficients of determination (R2) between rig estimations and human testing measurements were 0.98 and 0.85, respectively, for the same set of tools, tasks and operator conditions. The rig also provides predicted tool operator acceptability ratings, using a data set from a prior study of discomfort in experienced operators during torque tool use. Research limitations/implications Deviations from linearity may influence handle force and displacement measurements. Stiction (Coulomb friction) in the overall rig, as well as in the air cylinder piston, is neglected. The rig’s mechanical damping is not adjustable, despite the fact that human hand–arm damping varies with respect to gender and working posture. Deviations from these assumptions may affect the correlation of the handle force and displacement measurements with those of human testing for the same tool, task and operator conditions. Practical implications This test rig will allow the rapid assessment of the ergonomic performance of DC torque tools, saving considerable time in lineside applications and reducing the risk of worker injury. DC torque tools are an extremely effective way of increasing production rate and improving torque accuracy. Being a complex dynamic system, however, the performance of DC torque tools varies in each application. Changes in worker mass, damping and stiffness, as well as joint stiffness and tool program, make each application unique. This test rig models all of these factors and allows quick assessment. Social implications The use of this tool test rig will help to identify and understand risk factors that contribute to musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) associated with the use of torque tools. Tool operators are subjected to large impulsive handle reaction forces, as joint torque builds up while tightening a fastener. Repeated exposure to such forces is associated with muscle soreness, fatigue and physical stress which are also risk factors for upper extremity injuries (MSDs; e.g. tendinosis, myofascial pain). Eccentric exercise exertions are known to cause damage to muscle tissue in untrained individuals and affect subsequent performance. Originality/value The rig provides a novel means for quantitative, repeatable dynamic evaluation of RA powered torque tools and objective selection of tightening programs. Compared to current static tool assessment methods, dynamic testing provides a more realistic tool assessment relative to the tool operator’s experience. This may lead to improvements in tool or controller design and reduction in associated musculoskeletal discomfort in operators.


2021 ◽  
Vol 73 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Asad Ellahi ◽  
Ijaz Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Zaffar Hashmi ◽  
Mohammed Mohammed Ahmed Almazah ◽  
Fuad S. Al-Duais

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yitong Liu ◽  
Yang Yang ◽  
Dingyu Xue ◽  
Feng Pan

PurposeElectricity consumption prediction has been an important topic for its significant impact on electric policies. Due to various uncertain factors, the growth trends of electricity consumption in different cases are variable. However, the traditional grey model is based on a fixed structure which sometimes cannot match the trend of raw data. Consequently, the predictive accuracy is variable as cases change. To improve the model's adaptability and forecasting ability, a novel fractional discrete grey model with variable structure is proposed in this paper.Design/methodology/approachThe novel model can be regarded as a homogenous or non-homogenous exponent predicting model by changing the structure. And it selects the appropriate structure depending on the characteristics of raw data. The introduction of fractional accumulation enhances the predicting ability of the novel model. And the relative fractional order r is calculated by the numerical iterative algorithm which is simple but effective.FindingsTwo cases of power load and electricity consumption in Jiangsu and Fujian are applied to assess the predicting accuracy of the novel grey model. Four widely-used grey models, three classical statistical models and the multi-layer artificial neural network model are taken into comparison. The results demonstrate that the novel grey model performs well in all cases, and is superior to the comparative eight models.Originality/valueA fractional-order discrete grey model with an adaptable structure is proposed to solve the conflict between traditional grey models' fixed structures and variable development trends of raw data. In applications, the novel model has satisfied adaptability and predicting accuracy.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Ali Beheshtinia ◽  
Narjes Salmabadi ◽  
Somaye Rahimi

Purpose This paper aims to provide an integrated production-routing model in a three-echelon supply chain containing a two-layer transportation system to minimize the total costs of production, transportation, inventory holding and expired drugs treatment. In the proposed problem, some specifications such as multisite manufacturing, simultaneous pickup and delivery and uncertainty in parameters are considered. Design/methodology/approach At first, a mathematical model has been proposed for the problem. Then, one possibilistic model and one robust possibilistic model equivalent to the initial model are provided regarding the uncertain nature of the model parameters and the inaccessibility of their probability function. Finally, the performance of the proposed model is evaluated using the real data collected from a pharmaceutical production center in Iran. The results reveal the proper performance of the proposed models. Findings The results obtained from applying the proposed model to a real-life production center indicated that the number of expired drugs has decreased because of using this model, also the costs of the system were reduced owing to integrating simultaneous drug pickup and delivery operations. Moreover, regarding the results of simulations, the robust possibilistic model had the best performance among the proposed models. Originality/value This research considers a two-layer vehicle routing in a production-routing problem with inventory planning. Moreover, multisite manufacturing, simultaneous pickup of the expired drugs and delivery of the drugs to the distribution centers are considered. Providing a robust possibilistic model for tackling the uncertainty in demand, costs, production capacity and drug expiration costs is considered as another remarkable feature of the proposed model.


2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Lin Lin ◽  
Fang Wang ◽  
Shisheng Zhong

Prediction technology for aeroengine performance is significantly important in operational maintenance and safety engineering. In the prediction of engine performance, to address overfitting and underfitting problems with the approximation modeling technique, we derived a generalized approximation model that could be used to adjust fitting precision. Approximation precision was combined with fitting sensitivity to allow the model to obtain excellent fitting accuracy and generalization performance. Taking the Grey model (GM) as an example, we discussed the modeling approach of the novel GM based on fitting sensitivity, analyzed the setting methods and optimization range of model parameters, and solved the model by using a genetic algorithm. By investigating the effect of every model parameter on the prediction precision in experiments, we summarized the change regularities of the root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) varying with the model parameters in novel GM. Also, by analyzing the novel ANN and ANN with Bayesian regularization, it is concluded that the generalized approximation model based on fitting sensitivity can achieve a reasonable fitting degree and generalization ability.


Author(s):  
Lei Qi ◽  
Zhiyuan Shen ◽  
Jianjian Gao ◽  
Guoliang Zhao ◽  
Xiang Cui ◽  
...  

Purpose This paper aims to establish the wideband model of a sub-module in a modular multilevel converter (MMC) and analyze the switch transients of the sub-module. Design/methodology/approach The paper builds an MMC sub-module test circuit and conducts dynamic tests both with and without the bypass thyristor. Then, it builds the wideband model of the MMC sub-module and extracts the model parameters. Finally, based on the wideband model, it simulates the switch transients and analyzes the oscillation mechanism. Findings The dynamic testing shows the bypass thyristor will add oscillations during switch transients, especially during the turn-on process. The thyristor acts like a small capacitor and reduces the total capacitor in the turn-on circuit loop, thus causing under-damped oscillations. Originality/value This paper found that the bypass thyristor will influence the MMC sub-module switch transients under certain circumstances. This paper proposes a partial inductance extraction procedure for the MMC sub-module and builds a wideband model of the sub-module. The wideband model is used to analyze and explain the switch transients, and can be further used for insulated gate bipolar transistor switch oscillation inhibition and sub-module design optimization.


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 347-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flaminia Musella ◽  
Roberta Guglielmetti Mugion ◽  
Hendry Raharjo ◽  
Laura Di Pietro

Purpose This paper aims to holistically reconcile internal and external customer satisfaction using probabilistic graphical models. The models are useful not only in the identification of the most sensitive factors for the creation of both internal and external customer satisfaction but also in the generation of improvement scenarios in a probabilistic way. Design/methodology/approach Standard Bayesian networks and object-oriented Bayesian networks are used to build probabilistic graphical models for internal and external customers. For each ward, the model is used to evaluate satisfaction drivers by category, and scenarios for the improvement of overall satisfaction variables are developed. A global model that is based on an object-oriented network is modularly built to provide a holistic view of internal and external satisfaction. The linkage is created by building a global index of internal and external satisfaction based on a linear combination. The model parameters are derived from survey data from an Italian hospital. Findings The results that were achieved with the Bayesian networks are consistent with the results of previous research, and they were obtained by using a partial least squares path modelling tool. The variable ‘Experience’ is the most relevant internal factor for the improvement of overall patient satisfaction. To improve overall employee satisfaction, the variable ‘Product/service results’ is the most important. Finally, for a given target of overall internal and external satisfaction, external satisfaction is more sensitive to improvement than internal satisfaction. Originality/value The novelty of the paper lies in the efforts to link internal and external satisfaction based on a probabilistic expert system that can generate improvement scenarios. From an academic viewpoint, this study moves the service profit chain theory (Heskett et al., 1994) forward by delivering operational guidelines for jointly managing the factors that affect internal and external customer satisfaction in service organizations using a holistic approach.


2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suzana Paula Gomes Fernando da Silva Lampreia ◽  
José Fernando Gomes Requeijo ◽  
José António Mendonça Dias ◽  
Valter Martins Vairinhos ◽  
Patrícia Isabel Soares Barbosa

Purpose The application of condition-based maintenance on selected equipment can allow online monitoring using fixed, half-fixed or portable sensors. The collected data not always allow a straightforward interpretation and many false alarms can happen. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach Statistical techniques can be used to perform early failure detection. With the application of Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) Modified Charts and the Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) Charts, special causes of variation can be detected online and during the equipment functioning. Before applying these methods, it is important to check data for independence. When the independence condition is not verified, data should be modeled with an ARIMA (p, d, q) model. Parameters estimation is obtained using the Shewhart Traditional Charts. Findings With data monitoring and statistical methods, it is possible to detect any system or equipment failure trend, so that we can act at the right time to avoid catastrophic failures. Originality/value In this work, an electro pump condition is monitored. Through this process, an anomaly and four stages of aggravation are forced, and the CUSUM and EWMA modified control charts are applied to test an online equipment monitoring. When the detection occurs, the methodology will have rules to define the degree of intervention.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Zeng ◽  
Tianbin Li ◽  
Rafael Jimenez ◽  
Xianda Feng ◽  
Yu Chen ◽  
...  

PurposeThe collocation-based stochastic response surface method (CSRSM) is widely used in geotechnical reliability analyses due to its efficiency and accuracy. Determining the optimal truncated order of the associated polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is important, as it may strongly affect the practical applicability of CSRSM.Design/methodology/approachThis study investigates the performance of different optimal order selection strategies used in the CSRSM and proposes a new cross-order validation method. First, several methods commonly used for optimal order selection are briefly reviewed, and their merits and limitations for reliability analyses are discussed. Then, an improved optimal order selection method that achieves a better trade-off between efficiency and accuracy is proposed.FindingsIn total, ten simple mathematical examples from the literature are employed to perform a preliminary test on the proposed method, and a comparative study is conducted to demonstrate its advantages with respect to some other existing methods.Practical implicationsA total of three typical geotechnical problems are employed to demonstrate the performance of the proposed method in geotechnical practice.Originality/valueAn improved optimal order selection method that achieves a better trade-off between efficiency and accuracy is proposed. The threshold value of the deterministic coefficient used for the proposed method is discussed.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document