How to de-bias investment judgements–unpacking bias and possible remedies in a capital investment context

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Scherm ◽  
Bernhard Hirsch ◽  
Matthias Sohn ◽  
Miriam Maske
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Management Accounting ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Accounting Research ◽  
Decision Context ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Management Accountants

PurposeResearch on biases in investment decision-making is indubitably important; however, studies in this context are relatively scarce. Unpacking bias has received attention in the psychological literature yet very little attention from management accounting research. This bias suggests that the perceived probability that an event will occur generally increases when the event's description is unpacked into a disjunction of subevents. The authors hypothesize that for a capital investment decision context, managers' judgement of the probability of a future event depends on whether the event is described as one packed event or is unpacked into several disjoint subevents. Additionally, the authors propose that altering the format of the description of an event's occurrence from percentage values to relative frequencies reduces unpacking bias.Design/methodology/approachTo test the study’s hypotheses, the authors conducted two experiments based on a 3 × 2 mixed experimental design in which manager participants were asked to estimate the failure probabilities of technical systems in the context of an investment decision.FindingsThe authors provide evidence that unpacking bias occurs in an investment scenario, which can be characterized as a high-stakes decision context. Changing the format in which probabilities are presented from percentage values to relative frequencies significantly reduces the bias.Research limitations/implicationsAdditional instructions did not further reduce unpacking bias.Practical implicationsFor investment decisions under uncertainty, performance indicators in management templates should be presented in relative frequencies to improve managerial decision-making. The fact that the authors could not show an additional effect of instructions in management accounting reports indicates that it is challenging for management accountants to reduce the biased decision-making of managers by “teaching” them through the provision of instructions.Originality/valueThe authors contribute to accounting research by illustrating unpacking bias and by deriving a debiasing mechanism in a capital investment decision context.

A qualitative analysis of capital budgeting in cotton ginning plants

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 210-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Afonso Carneiro Lima ◽  
José Augusto Giesbrecht da Silveira ◽  
Fátima Regina Ney Matos ◽  
André Moura Xavier
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Specific Activity ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Managerial Experience

Purpose To analyze capital budgeting practice in a group of small cotton ginning firms in Brazil. The study aims at describing how investment decision-making in the agribusiness context may be influenced by heuristics and by the business setting. Design/methodology/approach This research adopted an exploratory and qualitative approach in gauging the practice of capital budgeting in Brazilian cotton ginning firms and discussing actual managerial decision-making. Data collection involved interviews with managers of ten different firms and a further content analysis was performed. Findings Results reveal a practical managerial approach aimed at ensuring satisfactory net operating results in the short run. Sophistication in capital budgeting is not considered as essential, as institutional and strategic environment influences directly affect impose high risks. Investment decision-making is highly influenced by managerial experience. Research limitations/implications Because of the chosen research approach, results may lack generalizability. However, in addressing a specific sector in a specific location, one can identify and craft strategies in response to managerial needs more effectively. Practical implications The paper clarifies how heuristics, managerial experience and the institutional context may influence investment decision-making in cotton ginning operations. It also suggests how actions aimed at evaluating risk and improving the screening of investment perspectives could contribute to improve investment decisions. Originality/value The paper provides an in-depth perspective in addressing the practice of capital budgeting in the context of a specific activity and describing key issues related to it.

scholarly journals Behavioral Issues for Sustainable Investment Decision-Making: A Literature Review

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Tomo ◽  
Giovanni Landi
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Behavioral Issues ◽  
Responsible Behavior ◽  
Thomson Reuters ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Sustainable Investment ◽  
Corporate Social

The aim of this work is to understand the role of the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) paradigm in the corporate assessment by investors and the use of this paradigm as guide for managerial decision-making process by corporations. A review of the international literature is provided using five different couples of keywords on Thomson Reuters ISI Web of Knowledge research engine. The literature production increased only after the 2007 crisis and the median year of the results is 2011, thus highlighting just a recent attention to themes as ethics and corporate social responsibility. Main limitations are related to the classic limitations of literature reviews, as the choice of number and type of keywords and journals, the resulting selection of studies, the choice of relevant outcomes and the interpretation, generalization and application of results. The study provides both theoretical and practical implications: a complete review of contributions on the theme is provided; then, some insights in investors and corporations behaviors through the ESG lens, thus suggesting a more ethical and responsible behavior in investment decision-making processes.

Investor sentiment antecedents

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 36-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ranjan Dasgupta ◽  
Rashmi Singh
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Retail Investors ◽  
Specific Factors

PurposeThe determinants of investor sentiment based on stock market proxies are found in numbers in empirical studies. However, investor sentiment antecedents developed from primary survey measures by constructing an investor sentiment index (ISI) are not done till date. The purpose of this paper is to fill this research gap by first developing an ISI for the Indian retail investors and then examining the investor-specific, stock market-specific, macroeconomic and policy-specific factors’ individual impact on the investor sentiment.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the authors develop the ISI by using the mean scores of six statements as formulated based on popular direct investor sentiment surveys undertaken throughout the world. Then, the authors employ the structural equation modeling approach on the responses of 576 respondents on 40 statements (representing the index and four study hypotheses) collected in 2016 across the country.FindingsThe results show that investor- and stock market-specific factors are the major antecedents of investor sentiment for these investors. However, interestingly macroeconomic fundamentals and policy-specific factors have no role to play in driving their sentiment to invest in the stock market.Practical implicationsThe major implication of the results is that the Indian retail investors are showing a mixed approach of Bayesian and behavioral finance decision making. So, these implications can guide the investment consultants, regulators, other stakeholders in markets and overwhelmingly the retail investors to introspect their investment decision making across time horizons.Originality/valueThe formulation of ISI in an emerging market context and thereafter examining possible antecedents to influence retail investors in their investment decision making are not done till date. So, the study is unique in its research issue and findings and will have significant implication for the retail investors at least in emerging market contexts.

Role of personal values in investment decisions

2016 ◽  
Vol 39 (8) ◽  
pp. 940-964 ◽  
Author(s):  
Otuo Serebour Agyemang ◽  
Abraham Ansong
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Corporate Governance ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Personal Values ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Recent Emergence ◽  
Decision Making Processes

Purpose This paper aims to examine the role personal values play in investment decision-making processes among Ghanaian shareholders. Design/methodology/approach In consequence of the recent emergence of the issue of corporate governance practices in Ghana, and the kind of the research objective of this paper, a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods was used. These methods were used in two stages. The first stage was qualitative, which purposively selected 20 individual shareholders to solicit their perspectives on how personal values influence investment decisions. Their responses were used to construct the content of this enquiry. The second stage, which was quantitative, used stratified sampling technique to select 503 individual shareholders to confirm the responses obtained from stage one of the enquiry. Findings The findings of the study reveal that individual shareholders in Ghana hold value priorities and that honesty, a comfortable life and family security play a significant role in their lives and their investment decision-making processes, and the kind of companies they choose to invest in. Also, to Ghanaian individual shareholders, there is a clear distinction between a comfortable life and a prosperous life in the sense that they are not incentivized more by the latter but by the former in their investment decisions. Practical implications The results can inform corporate directors and managers what values are considered in investment decisions, and that it is not purely financial. With these results, they can be informed that while some financial values are important, it is just to live a comfortable life and not a prosperous life. This may influence these directors and managers to have a more long-run focus and to have more of a corporate social responsibility (CSR) focus by putting implementable measures in place to tackle corporate responsibility issues and to take up a responsibility for their CSR feat. Also, the results can be used for public policy in that if regulators find out that more CSR-type information is important to investors, they might require additional CSR-type disclosures in financial statements. Originality/value This paper contributes to the knowledge on the stakeholder perspective of corporate governance that individual shareholders’ personal values have influence on their investment decisions and the choice of companies they invest in.

Increasing the flow of Guinness: the role of strategic investment decision-making in organizations

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-21
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Strategic Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategic Direction ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings The decision by Guinness in 1965 to expand into Ghana was based on a robust and experienced strategic investment decision-making process (SIDM). It required the knowledge of past failures and successes to implement those lessons onto a new project. As such, the SIDM process can be seen to be one of the most important in terms of an organizations ability to expand and take advantage of situations. What Alkaraan (2016) demonstrates is the factors that govern the SIDM process, why they are important and how they function within an organization. In doing so, organizations that are struggling to succeed may be able to highlight areas that have previously been ignored, to implement a new strategic direction. Practical implications The paper provides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world’s leading organizations. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Evaluation of behavioral biases affecting investment decision making of individual equity investors by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 297-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinesh Jain ◽  
Nidhi Walia ◽  
Sanjay Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Behavioral Biases ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Overconfidence Bias ◽  
Hierarchy Process

Purpose Research in the area of behavioral finance has demonstrated that investors exhibit irrational behavior while making investment decisions. Investor behavior usually deviates from logic and reason, and consequently, investors exhibit various behavioral biases which impact their investment decisions. The purpose of this paper is to rank the behavioral biases influencing the investment decision making of individual equity investors from the state of Punjab, India. This research would provide valuable insight into the different behavioral biases to investors and other participants of the capital market and help them in improving investment decisions. Design/methodology/approach The research is conducted on the individual equity investors of Punjab, India. Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process was applied to rank the factors influencing the decision making of individual equity investors of Punjab. The primary factors considered for the study are overconfidence bias, representative bias, anchoring bias, availability bias, regret aversion bias, loss aversion bias, mental accounting bias and herding bias. Findings The three most influential criteria were herding bias, loss aversion bias and overconfidence bias. The five most influential sub-criteria were “I readily sell shares that have increased in value (C61),” “News about the company (Newspapers, TV and magazines) affects my investment decision (C84),” “I invest each element of my investment portfolio separately (C71)” and “I usually hold loosing stock for long time, expecting trend reversal (C52).” Research limitations/implications Although sample survey conducted in the present study was based on a limited sample selected from a particular area that truly represented the total population, it is considered as the limitation of this study. Practical implications The outcome of this research provides investors with a better understanding of behavioral biases that influence their decision making. This study provides them a guideline on different behavioral biases that they should consider while making investment decisions. Originality/value The research model is based on the available literature on behavioral finance and the research results and findings would add value to the existing knowledge base.

Challenging investment decision-making in pension funds

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl-Christian Trönnberg ◽  
Sven Hemlin
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Critical Incident ◽  
Pension Fund ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Pension Funds ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Intuitive Thinking ◽  
Investment Decision Making

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of pension fund managers investment thinking when confronted with challenging investment decisions. The study focuses on the theoretical question of how dual thinking processes in experts’ investment decision-making emerge. This question has attracted interest in economic psychology but has not yet been answered. Here, it is explored in the context of pension funds.Design/methodology/approachThe sample included 22 pension fund managers. The authors explored their decision-making by applying the critical incident interview technique, which entailed collecting investment decisions that fund managers retrieved from recent memory (Flanagan, 1954). Questions concerned the investment situation, the decision-making process and the challenges and uncertainties the fund managers faced.FindingsMany of the 61 critical incidents examined concerned challenging (mostly stock) investments based on extensive analysis (e.g. reliance on external analysts for advice; analysis of massive amounts of hard company and stock market information; scrutiny of company reports and personal meetings with CEOs). However, fund managers to a high degree based their decisions on soft information judgments such as experience and qualitative judgements of teams. The authors found heuristics, intuitive thinking, biases (sunk cost effects) and social influences in investment decision-making.Research limitations/implicationsThe sample is small and not randomly selected.Practical implicationsThe authors suggest anti-bias training and better acquaintance with human forecasting limitations for pension fund managers.Originality/valuePension fund managers’ investment thinking has not previously been investigated. The authors show the types of investment situations in which analytical and intuitive thinking and biases occur.

The influence of big data analytics management capabilities on supply chain preparedness, alertness and agility

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 297-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santanu Mandal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Data Analytics ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Big Data Analytics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Management Capabilities ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The importance of big data analytics (BDA) on the development of supply chain (SC) resilience is not clearly understood. To address this, the purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of BDA management capabilities, namely, BDA planning, BDA investment decision making, BDA coordination and BDA control on SC resilience dimensions, namely, SC preparedness, SC alertness and SC agility. Design/methodology/approach The study relied on perceptual measures to test the proposed associations. Using extant measures, the scales for all the constructs were contextualized based on expert feedback. Using online survey, 249 complete responses were collected and were analyzed using partial least squares in SmartPLS 2.0.M3. The study targeted professionals with sufficient experience in analytics in different industry sectors for survey participation. Findings Results indicate BDA planning, BDA coordination and BDA control are critical enablers of SC preparedness, SC alertness and SC agility. BDA investment decision making did not have any prominent influence on any of the SC resilience dimensions. Originality/value The study is important as it addresses the contribution of BDA capabilities on the development of SC resilience, an important gap in the extant literature.

Financial Appraisal and the IS/IT Investment Decision Making Process

1998 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joan Ballantine ◽  
Stephanie Stray
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Technology ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
It Investment ◽  
It Investments ◽  
Investment Appraisal ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
Financial Appraisal

This paper explores the techniques used by organizations to appraise Information Systems (IS)/Information Technology (IT) investments, and concentrates, in particular, on techniques of capital investment appraisal. We draw on relevant studies reported in both the accounting and finance, and the IS literature, which have addressed their usage. Where possible comparisons are drawn between both sets of literatures. The results of a survey that specifically examined IS/IT investment appraisal practices of a sample of UK companies is also presented. Among the issues discussed include the extent to which capital investment appraisal techniques are used to appraisal investments, the importance of the techniques used and the problems attendant on the decision making process.

scholarly journals How do emotional intelligence and behavioral biases of investors determine their investment decisions?

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-47
Author(s):  
Saloni Raheja ◽  
Babli Dhiman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Risk Tolerance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Behavioral Biases ◽  
Investment Decision Making ◽  
The Impact

Purpose In earlier studies, research has shown that EI is the only element, which influences the ways in which people develop in their lives, jobs and social skills control their emotions and get along with other people. It is EI that dictates the way people deal with one another and understand emotions. The research gap is to explore the impact of behavioral factors and investors psychology on their investment decision-making. Design/methodology/approach The information was gathered from 500 financial specialists. The region of research was the financial specialists who contribute through LSC Securities Ltd. in Punjab State. The purposive testing system was used in this examination. Findings The investigation found that the positive connection between the conduct predispositions of the financial specialists and venture choices of the speculators and positive connection between enthusiastic insight of the financial specialists and their venture choices. Yet, the authors found that the enthusiastic insight better foresees the venture choices of the financial specialists than the conduct predispositions of the speculators. Among the different elements of conduct inclinations of the speculator’s lament and carelessness are identified with the financial specialist’s venture choices. Among the various estimations of eager understanding – care, dealing with emotions, motivation, empathy and social aptitudes are related to the hypothesis decisions of the monetary pros. Research limitations/implications The sample selection was based on purposive sampling, rather than a random probability sample. The sample was area specific, restricted only to Ludhiana Stock Exchange in Punjab state. Therefore, the results of the study cannot be generalized with certainty to all the investors investing through other exchanges in other states. The inferences are based on the assumption that the data provided by the investors are true and correct. The findings may be relevant for other stock exchanges as that of the Ludhiana Stock Exchange. However, the authors do not claim the generalization of the results. Practical implications This study also helps to understand the relationship between investment decision-making and risk tolerance of investors. It will helpful for the financial advisors to know the behavioral biases of investors while making an investment decision, and therefore, they can advise investors properly to mitigate such biases. It may help the investors in understanding the subjective part of their behavior and control their emotions while taking decisions for their investment in stock market options. Social implications This research will help investment advisors and finance professionals to judge investors’ attitudes toward risk in a better way, which leads to better investment decisions. Originality/value This study is my own study and it is original and has not been published anywhere.

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